Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Catfish Blues]

The tier system is doomed to failure and you can only imagine a nationwide lockdown is inevitable and not far away.

I'm not sure a national lockdown's inevitable. But infections are rising all across the country, so, if that continues, it's pretty much inevitable that the majority of urban areas will end up in Tier 2 or above, with a similar effect to a watered down national lockdown.

 

[JLW]

Deaths per week have been below average recently, which certainly suggests that some of those who died in the first peak were taken a few months early, rather than a few years early, but those below average deaths are in the order of a few thousand, rather than the tens of thousands needed to balance out the deaths in the peak, hence why I'm saying that the majority who died would still be alive today without COVID.

You'd ( not you personally ) have to be a bit dense to look at the graphs and data to not realise that.

It's assumed, and is almost certainly true, that hospital deaths are down since the peak primarily because people who need treatment aren't going for it. While, recently, hospital deaths have been below average, deaths at home are above average, and by more than the hospital deaths are below average.

So it's almost certain that roughly half the extra people dying at home would, under normal circumstances, have seeked help, been admitted, but still died in hospital. The other half of the excess home deaths would probably, without COVID existing, have seeked help and still be alive today, which is the flipside of lockdown and restrictions.

There are no "100% definites" in this, but there does come a point where something is so likely, that you might as well treat it as being definite

If they published the amount of deaths in which Covid killed the person rather than "died within 28 days of testing positive" then maybe we would be living in a different world than what we are living in today, and the statistics would be largely different for the better.

I'm not saying Covid hasn't killed many people but I'm saying the figures would look a whole lot different.

 

[Jebus_lives]

https://www.pfizer.com/news/hot-topi..._albert_bourla

Please please work

The link or the vaccine?

 

[Kenshin]

You're cherry picking information here. Yes it is average age, but that includes 60 year olds and 100 year olds (if we very simply balance out the 80 year old figure).

And covid-19 hastens and exacerbates other illnesses which wouldn't otherwise cause death, so it's incorrect to say that people were already on the path the death - it's simply not true. It's also completely discounting the as yet not fully understood long term health problems associated with covid-19.

Just for clarity, by persistent presentation of your 82.5 average death, what are you suggesting? Withhold treatment?

So dementia patients make full recoveries do they? Do heart failure patients at such a high age go back to living a full and normal life? You can't gloss over these issues for the use of a different generalised point.

The thing with average is that it tells you roughly what ball park the data is in. So the average age is absolutely important , especially when your own arguments include estimates from scientific bodies as fact. So you can't dismiss the average age yet hold ground on etimated data. Average age puts the mortality into a very specific age range , with the vast majority of that data coming 70 plus. The fact the average age of death is not 55 for example again tells us a hell of a lot.

If you just have that mind set that covid kills people that would not have otherwise have died at such a high age then you are removing the effects of literally every other way to die and focusing it onto one cause of death no matter what. You are removing any possible alternative to hospital patients and establishing that covid is always the cause of death.

Otherwise there is a very solid argument that dying patents are catching covid in hospital and ending up on the covid list despite the reason they are in the hospital to begin with.

 

[Kenshin]

Why would you compare it to Europe (wildly different country by country strategies I would add) and America (different approaches by state and wildly different cultural identify).

You should really, if you are going to compare it at all, use China's neighbours - Taiwan, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia for comparison.

And I wouldn't use the cases by population figure as I don't think it's appropriate, not would I use the deaths by population as I explained to @Nymzee earlier.

Wait what?

Why would I compare it to Europe and America? Seriously?!

It's a virus that infects human beings. That's why you compare it to anywhere else.

Unless you are suggesting that where most other countries have had the virus come and go in waves , spread all across the country despite measure after measure to stop it. China not only contained it to a single location , stopped it going through both schenzhen and Beijing where the majority of traffic goes through , preventing the country from shutting down and allowed them to recover is just a coincidence. They apparantly didn't know the virus existed and they were the only country to not see it significantly spread.

Why aren't the world following china if they have dealt with it so efficiently?

 

[Deckard2049]

The tier system is doomed to failure and you can only imagine a nationwide lockdown is inevitable and not far away.

The government have absolutely lost the plot now. If Whitty had any integrity left he would have slaughtered this system at last weeks conference.

Whatever the restrictions in each individual tier, they should be uniform and clearly laid out. How can gyms stay open in Lancashire but not in Merseyside? Who is making that call? Neither local leaders or national ones want to take responsibility for these decisions, probably just so they don’t look unpopular.

I don’t want another lockdown but Christ, there’s not going to be much choice at this rate.

 

[Jebus_lives]

Wait what?

Why would I compare it to Europe and America? Seriously?!

It's a virus that infects human beings. That's why you compare it to anywhere else.

Unless you are suggesting that where most other countries have had the virus come and go in waves , spread all across the country despite measure after measure to stop it. China not only contained it to a single location , stopped it going through both schenzhen and Beijing where the majority of traffic goes through , preventing the country from shutting down and allowed them to recover is just a coincidence. They apparantly didn't know the virus existed and they were the only country to not see it significantly spread.

Why aren't the world following china if they have dealt with it so efficiently?

There is nothing logical in this.

 

[peteblue]

The government have absolutely lost the plot now. If Whitty had any integrity left he would have slaughtered this system at last weeks conference.

Whatever the restrictions in each individual tier, they should be uniform and clearly laid out. How can gyms stay open in Lancashire but not in Merseyside? Who is making that call? Neither local leaders or national ones want to take responsibility for these decisions, probably just so they don’t look unpopular.

I don’t want another lockdown but Christ, there’s not going to be much choice at this rate.

This really.....

 

[Kenshin]

There is nothing logical in this.

There is nothing logical in following the country that has managed to get rid of covid-19 and gone back to normal?

Think about it mate. Whilst you walk past the shut down pubs and other businesses , telling your friends and family see you next year hopefully.

Maybe write it on their Christmas card , there's no logic in ever copying the country who have managed to drop cases to practically nothing and went back to normal.

 

[Catfish Blues]

If they published the amount of deaths in which Covid killed the person rather than "died within 28 days of testing positive"

They do mate, that's what the ONS figures are based on. For sure, if a doctor knows a patient has had a positive test, then they'll be marginally more confident that COVID was a contributory cause and therefore marginally more likely to put it on the death certficate as a contributory factor, but, sadly, they've seen so many cases now that they barely need to see a test result to confirm it.

 

[Blue83]

The tier system has been in place 3 days and it's already failing.

How can he not know what he agreed to just days ago ? Lancashire keep their gyms open because their mayors and leaders agreed to keep them open while Joe and his buddies agreed to close gyms or was he so utterly clueless that he didn't know he had a choice on the demands

 

[Catfish Blues]

The link or the vaccine?

Haha

I think @bebo86 was trying to link this ?

An Open Letter from Pfizer Chairman and CEO Albert Bourla | Pfizer

As we get closer to an important data readout from our COVID-19 vaccine program, I wanted to speak directly to the billions of people, millions of businesses and hundreds of governments around the world that are investing their hopes in a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine to overcome this...

www.pfizer.com

 

[bebo86]

Lol ya the vaccine. Mentally will be sooo good if one's approved

 

[Catfish Blues]

So dementia patients make full recoveries do they? Do heart failure patients at such a high age go back to living a full and normal life? You can't gloss over these issues for the use of a different generalised point.

What you say is true, but at what point does someone's remaining life, and quality of life become something that, in the grand scheme of things, isn't worth worrying about, which is basically what you're saying ?

I've seen, and sat with people dying of cancer or dementia, and keeping them alive can often be almost cruel, but equally, someone whose physical activity is curtailed by CVD can still get a lot of enjoyment out of the things they're able to do.

 

[davek]

I'm always a bit dubious of these maverick model makers, but this is in relation to the value of a circuit breaker and might be of interest:

The case for a circuit breaker

Professor Karl Friston has modelled the effect of a short lockdown, with surprising results

unherd.com