Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Barnfred 55]

OK mate. I'd like to know who set the main objective which was to avoid critical cases exceeding NHS intensive care and other respiratory support bed capacity. Because, from what I can gather that was the biggest mistake. I understand that this objective had largely been met, yet we still have the largest death toll in Europe.

Unfortunately, I don't have the time to read all the SAGE minutes. So apologies if the answer is there and I didn't find it.

Yeah that's a very good question mate, although personally I don't believe that was actually a mistake . When I first read the SAGE minutes I was disappointed because they didn't give enough detail. However the fact that they are brief also means you can go through them all in a few hours. The meetings between the senior scientists, i.e. CMO, CSO and their teams, and the government ministers will tell us a lot more but I doubt these will be made public until the inevitable inquest is held. So the answer to your question is we don't know for certain. My view is that it was the senior scientists who have been driving this, so that would be Witty and Vallance. They have consistently said from the outset that the country won't be able to lockdown until a vaccine is found and the best they could hope for is to stop the NHS becoming overwhelmed. It's very hard to argue with that and I haven't seen one scientist who has done so. None of our politicians could have come up with that, especially Johnson.

I've actually questioned a number of decisions they made, such as allowing large gatherings and not controlling flights in from other countries better. But I have no expertise in this area so who am I to call out the experts on this, But there were 2 significant mistakes made that were highlighted by the minutes. The first was that the scientific modellers were working on numbers that were 7 days out of date, and they didn't realise this until 13 March by which stage they were much further along the curve than they had realised. Around the same time they also underestimated the multiplier factor and infection rate. Bith were crucial to the timing of lockdown.

Secondly, in one of the early SAGE meetings they discussed the elderly as being at risk and that at some stage they would need to be protected through self isolation. They specifically identified those in care homes as a problem area to be overcome because it would be so difficult to self isolate. In early April they set up a working team to look specifically at the spread of the virus within hospitals and care home environments. It was to look at the risks involved, what precautions are already in place, and an action plan to ensure the risks are minimised. When the plan was produced a week or so later it was just for hospitals. The Care Homes part had just disappeared.

Now a half decent health minister would have spotted this and raised the question what about Care Homes. But the quality of our politicians is poor and I put this down to sheer incompetence rather than any political funny business.

 

[Barnfred 55]

The WHO were clear. Deal with it aggressively and test, test, test. We failed to heed them.

Ministers and SpAds could and should have challenged the SAGE advice more, based on what was happening elsewhere. That is their job.

Our complete lack of preparedness for this is also the Tories fault, considering they have been in power for 10 years. For example, not implementing the recommendations of Exercise Cgynus and even reducing the size of the PPE stockpile.

The testing was a complete balls up and was down to the fact that the PHE wanted to keep it all in house initially. They wouldn't even use our world class Universities to start with nor the excellent private sector we have in pharmaceuticals. They were also obsessed about accuracy. It was only when they finally used the private sector that they got the numbers up, but it was far far too late by that stage.

I totally agree with you that competent ministers would have questioned and pushed and challenged our senor scientists an civil servants, and am shocked to see you say that. The problem there is that we don't have too many competent ministers. Certainly not Johnson and Hancock who are the two key ones here.

And yeah to your final point too. There's absolutely no doubt that 10 years of under spending on the NHS led to it being in a bad position to cope with this virus. No arguments there.

 

[Barnfred 55]

I was reading the other day, a lot of pub owners were saying (before the announcement by the government) that with all the restriction likely to be put in place in regards to them opening, then they probably won't open up because it will actually cost them more in the long run.

There was a report out today that there are 73000 at risk in Cornwall. Doesn't sound much in the whole scheme of things with possibly over a million jobs going, but that's 27%, over a quarter of the total jobs in Cornwall. We may have been very lucky down here as regards the virus itself, but boy are we gping to pay the price on the economic side.

Personally I think it could bounce back within a couple of years, especially if more people start holidaying at home as a result of this.

 

[sbbefc]

Yeah that's a very good question mate, although personally I don't believe that was actually a mistake . When I first read the SAGE minutes I was disappointed because they didn't give enough detail. However the fact that they are brief also means you can go through them all in a few hours. The meetings between the senior scientists, i.e. CMO, CSO and their teams, and the government ministers will tell us a lot more but I doubt these will be made public until the inevitable inquest is held. So the answer to your question is we don't know for certain. My view is that it was the senior scientists who have been driving this, so that would be Witty and Vallance. They have consistently said from the outset that the country won't be able to lockdown until a vaccine is found and the best they could hope for is to stop the NHS becoming overwhelmed. It's very hard to argue with that and I haven't seen one scientist who has done so. None of our politicians could have come up with that, especially Johnson.

I've actually questioned a number of decisions they made, such as allowing large gatherings and not controlling flights in from other countries better. But I have no expertise in this area so who am I to call out the experts on this, But there were 2 significant mistakes made that were highlighted by the minutes. The first was that the scientific modellers were working on numbers that were 7 days out of date, and they didn't realise this until 13 March by which stage they were much further along the curve than they had realised. Around the same time they also underestimated the multiplier factor and infection rate. Bith were crucial to the timing of lockdown.

Secondly, in one of the early SAGE meetings they discussed the elderly as being at risk and that at some stage they would need to be protected through self isolation. They specifically identified those in care homes as a problem area to be overcome because it would be so difficult to self isolate. In early April they set up a working team to look specifically at the spread of the virus within hospitals and care home environments. It was to look at the risks involved, what precautions are already in place, and an action plan to ensure the risks are minimised. When the plan was produced a week or so later it was just for hospitals. The Care Homes part had just disappeared.

Now a half decent health minister would have spotted this and raised the question what about Care Homes. But the quality of our politicians is poor and I put this down to sheer incompetence rather than any political funny business.

The bit in bold is the big unknown though isn't it. I mean there's always going to be a balance to be made between the economy and limiting deaths and this is why I'm so sceptical about the way the government handled it. Ultimately, mistakes were made on the decision when to lockdown, perhaps honest mistakes but I'm not so sure.

Regardless, what's worse is the government's handling of the crisis since then.

 

[Cool_Blue]

Just back from Asda, people wandering down aisles the wrong way, standing in groups chatting away, mayhem out there.

We had an ‘incident’ in Aldi today, couple in their 80’s piled their stuff onto the belt right behind me and the missus, who then asked the woman to step back a bit, mentioning 2m, but the woman totally ignored her. 3 more times we asked, and she just said ‘oh it’s only a shop’. I said to them ‘you do know people are still dying?’, to which the old guy said ‘oh shut up man’. Unreal, wtf can you do?

 

[Barnfred 55]

The bit in bold is the big unknown though isn't it. I mean there's always going to be a balance to be made between the economy and limiting deaths and this is why I'm so sceptical about the way the government handled it. Ultimately, mistakes were made on the decision when to lockdown, perhaps honest mistakes but I'm not so sure.

Regardless, what's worse is the government's handling of the crisis since then.

Generally speaking the handling of this has been poor, I'm not arguing with that. I picked you up on your post because you said it was political will of the Tories that is driving this and I just don't think that is the case (or rather was the case). It is science that that is driving it and a combination of mistakes coupled with piss poor political leadership and oversight have resulted in bad errors being made which has cost lives.

No argument with your second point

I also think the media behaviour throughout this has been appalling too.

 

[Goat]

We had an ‘incident’ in Aldi today, couple in their 80’s piled their stuff onto the belt right behind me and the missus, who then asked the woman to step back a bit, mentioning 2m, but the woman totally ignored her. 3 more times we asked, and she just said ‘oh it’s only a shop’. I said to them ‘you do know people are still dying?’, to which the old guy said ‘oh shut up man’. Unreal, wtf can you do?

Prolly would have chinned him lad!

But yeah, seeing loads of this stuff, told the missus she is gonna have to go shopping for a bit, cant handle all the clowns.

 

[davek]

So far today, I’ve read one expert who says the numbers would have been halved if we had locked down a week earlier, another one who said the deaths number would have been halved again in the same timeframe, I.e. the first expert was using too high a number. A third expert believes that our stated numbers are actually twice as high as the reality for COVID deaths. So even now, after all this time, our medical experts are proving themselves about as reliable and consistent as our economic experts were back in 2016.....and this was the one time I thought I’d be able to believe them......

No, they are being consistent and it says more about you that you cant see the consistency in the three pronouncements. They are ALL claiming that the performance of the government was lacking dramatically.

 

[JimmyJeffers]

So far today, I’ve read one expert who says the numbers would have been halved if we had locked down a week earlier, another one who said the deaths number would have been halved again in the same timeframe, I.e. the first expert was using too high a number. A third expert believes that our stated numbers are actually twice as high as the reality for COVID deaths. So even now, after all this time, our medical experts are proving themselves about as reliable and consistent as our economic experts were back in 2016.....and this was the one time I thought I’d be able to believe them......

What do you believe?

 

[dead_soft]

So far today, I’ve read one expert who says the numbers would have been halved if we had locked down a week earlier, another one who said the deaths number would have been halved again in the same timeframe, I.e. the first expert was using too high a number. A third expert believes that our stated numbers are actually twice as high as the reality for COVID deaths. So even now, after all this time, our medical experts are proving themselves about as reliable and consistent as our economic experts were back in 2016.....and this was the one time I thought I’d be able to believe them......

Some links would be helpful?

 

[Liamliverpool86]

So far today, I’ve read one expert who says the numbers would have been halved if we had locked down a week earlier, another one who said the deaths number would have been halved again in the same timeframe, I.e. the first expert was using too high a number. A third expert believes that our stated numbers are actually twice as high as the reality for COVID deaths. So even now, after all this time, our medical experts are proving themselves about as reliable and consistent as our economic experts were back in 2016.....and this was the one time I thought I’d be able to believe them......

I come from the hospitality industry the bars and food places should of been the first to shut down after flights - if for example i had it and didn't know and am handing cash and serving 200-400 customers on a saturday night .. it could of spread like wildfire

seems a few intelligent people on here anyway .. what would you think e.g. a night-club will be able to open and you think there would be restrictions like capacity reduction etc

 

[Catfish Blues]

@Nymzee

In case you've not heard about it, Newsnight did a piece on Barrow last night which went some way to explaining why your area is measuring so poorly.

In a nutshell, although the obvious areas of poverty, low life expectancy and population density are plainly playing their part, the local NHS area have done much more than average in terms of testing, which partly explains why it looks like infection rates are high round you.

Worth a watch if you've not seen it.

 

[Nymzee]

@Nymzee

In case you've not heard about it, Newsnight did a piece on Barrow last night which went some way to explaining why your area is measuring so poorly.

In a nutshell, although the obvious areas of poverty, low life expectancy and population density are plainly playing their part, the local NHS area have done much more than average in terms of testing, which partly explains why it looks like infection rates are high round you.

Worth a watch if you've not seen it.

Cheers mate will watch. But yeh, I believe we had a drive through test centre up and running the week before lockdown if I remember right.

 

[Charro]

Barrow will be graced with my presence very soon so things are certainly on the up for the great town.

 

[Catfish Blues]

Barrow will be graced with my presence very soon so things are certainly on the up for the great town.

Create a thread telling us about it mate.

"When Charro went to Barrow" might be the making of the forum.