The government decided NOT to stop air travel to the UK therefore allowing the virus to come into the UK. The first UK case was two Chinese nationals that had been to China and a UK national who had been to Singapore. If the government had took decisive action on air travel, rather than 'only fly if essential', and tested, screened and quarantined, the UK could have been spared many many tens of thousands of deaths. Their inaction led to unnecessary deaths.
Third SAGE meeting on Wuhan Coronavirus (WN-CoV), 3 February 2020
By teleconference
Summary 1. On the expected impact of travel restrictions, SAGE estimates – with limited data – that if the UK reduces imported infections by 50%, this would maybe delay the onset of any epidemic in the UK by about 5 days; 75% would maybe buy 10 additional days; 90% maybe buys 15 additional days; 95%+ maybe buys a month.
2. Only a month of additional preparation time for the NHS would be meaningful. It would also be meaningful if the outbreak were pushed out of usual winter respiratory season.
3. To prevent imported infections along these lines would require draconian and coordinated measures, because direct flights from China are not the only route for infected individuals to enter the UK.
4. Additional measures would be required and 50% reduction is probably about the best that could be achieved with a ban on direct travel from China alone.
5. Stopping travel would also have other impacts, including on supply chains.
6. SAGE will address the question of what package of measures might lead to a 1 month delay (including measures to stop spread within the UK).
7. SAGE will also seek to refine its estimates through further modelling; SAGE is next meeting on Tuesday 4 February 2020
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