Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[navidson]

NHS England - I dont count there figures as credible. They consistently underestimate. ONS is the better guide...and even on NHS England figures it's still almost twice the Italian rate.

Twice the rate hence half of the restrictions being lifted

The NHS England statistics are coming directly from PCTs and hospitals - Just because they don't fit your twisted narrative is no reason to disregard them

 

[navidson]

Oh it's this misleading chart again

 

[BlueStevie35]

Does everyone count the same way, cos I thought that the figures we announce daily are comprised of deaths over quite a few days.

Thats how the figures have always been counted, people using this as a stick still don’t get it

 

[roydo]

Thats how the figures have always been counted, people using this as a stick still don’t get it

So I am not going mad then? We are circa 30 a day in reality, ish.

 

[davek]

PM has not met five tests for easing lockdown, says Association of Directors of Public Health
In her interview on the Today programme this morning Jeanelle de Gruchy, the president of the Association of Directors of Public Health, also claimed that the UK government’s five tests for easing the lockdown had not been met. But at a press conference last week Boris Johnson claimed that all five tests were being achieved.
The five tests were originally set out by Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary and first secretary of state, at a press conference in April(when Johnson was ill). Here they are, with the rival assessments for each test from Johnson in his speech last week and from the ADPH yesterday in its statement.
The PM says all five tests have been passed. The ADPH accepts that the first test has been met, but on the other four it says it is too soon to be sure.


1 - NHS’s ability to cope must be protected


What PM says:

At the start of the outbreak, there was significant concern that the NHS would not be able to cope. That turned out not to be the case, thanks to the heroic efforts of everyone who works in the NHS. And the heroic efforts of the British people to contain this virus.

The data show that on 26 May, 475 people were admitted to hospital in England with coronavirus - down from a peak of 3,121 on a single day, on 2 April.

On 27 May, 11% of mechanical ventilator beds in the UK were occupied by patients with coronavirus, down from a peak of 41% on 10 April.

What ADPH says:

Firstly, the pressure on the NHS – and those that tirelessly and expertly work within it – has been significant but it has been able to cope with those who unfortunately need hospital treatment for the effects of Covid-19. The number of people in hospitals with Covid-19 is falling, and beds are available for those that require them.

2 - Sustained and consistent fall in daily death rates
What PM says:

As measured by a seven-day rolling average, the UK daily death rate now stands at 256, down from a peak of 943 on 14 April.

While every death is one too many, it is now the case that there has been a sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rate, and so the second test is being met.

What ADPH says:

Secondly, there must be a sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rate. While the first peak in deaths has passed, the downward trend is slow – particularly in care settings. Deaths are a measure of what happened roughly two weeks before – the effect of easing measures now will only become evident in two weeks.

3 - Rate of infection decreasing to manageable levels
What PM says:

And in the last seven days, an average of 2,312 new cases were confirmed with a positive test, that’s down from a peak of 5,066 in the first week of May.

Based on the various data available, the government is satisfied that the third test is being met.

What ADPH says:

The critical debate is about the third test – ensuring the rate of transmission of the infection continues decreasing to manageable levels (taken to mean R being well below 1). The rapid and multiple ways in which measures are being eased is likely to make it difficult to judge the cumulative impact on R. As we saw in March, R can go above 1 in a very short space of time – and once it does it can take many months to bring it back down. The room for manoeuvre is tight.

4 - Testing capacity and PPE supply at adequate levels
What PM says:

Yesterday we carried out 119,587 tests, compared to around 12,000 at the start of April. Testing capacity has now increased to 161,214 a day.

We have now signed over 100 new deals with PPE suppliers around the world. Here in the UK, thanks to the efforts of Lord Deighton and his team and the brilliance of domestic manufacturers we have signed contracts for over two billion items of PPE, including face masks, visors, gowns and aprons.

What ADPH says:

The fourth aspect, ensuring supply of tests and PPE is able meet future demand, remains an enormous challenge. PPE manufacturing and supply chains are stronger, but shortages are still being reported and it is not clear that supply can meet new demand as different parts of society, public services and the economy open. While testing capacity has undoubtedly increased, we are not yet confident that the current testing regime is sufficiently effective in getting the priority tests done and the results to where they are needed to enable swift action.

5 - No risk of a second peak that would overwhelm NHS
What PM says:

This package has been carefully designed so that we can ease the burdens of lockdown while expecting to keep that R below one. I cannot and will not throw away all the gains we have made together, and so the changes we are making are limited and cautious.

What ADPH says:

Finally, the fifth test. A second peak cannot be ruled out – whether it will overwhelm the NHS is an important question to ask. But perhaps the even bigger one is, do we really want the same number of deaths again? The scale to date represents an unimaginable tragedy and we must do everything possible to limit further loss of life.

 

[davek]

Twice the rate hence half of the restrictions being lifted

The NHS England statistics are coming directly from PCTs and hospitals - Just because they don't fit your twisted narrative is no reason to disregard them

My twisted narrative? Here's my twisted narrative mate: 64,000 people needlessly killed in this country by the people now telling us it's ok to ease the lockdown...despite health experts telling them it's too early to do so.

Is that the twisted narrative you refer to? Would you like a massive second wave of infections and deaths? Is that what you want?

Stop apologising for a murderous regime.

 

[ramacca]

There's a growing belief that the 14-day quarantine has very little value and the government know this, but what it does do is placate* certain aspects of the country.

*Daily Mail readers, raging xenophobes, Conservative voters.

Restricting air travel, testing and screening and quarantining works as island's like Australia and New Zealand have shown. If we'd properly quarantined those travelling back from China from late January, when the FO was advising against all but essential travel, then it would have massively lessened the virus entering the country. The UK did quarantine some people coming back - 300 odd - but not widespread enough. Similarly, a proper quarantine from Italian ski resorts was need rather than 'voluntary' isolation advice would have all but halted those infected from infecting others.

The government was advised by Whitty, who was, and still is the biggest advocate of not restricting air travel, testing and screening as was done during the Ebola crisis and not quarantining as 'it would only delay the virus entering the UK by 15 days' - which would have given the UK more preparation time. But also that it would be difficult 'selling it to the government'.

 

[Jebus_lives]

PM has not met five tests for easing lockdown, says Association of Directors of Public Health
In her interview on the Today programme this morning Jeanelle de Gruchy, the president of the Association of Directors of Public Health, also claimed that the UK government’s five tests for easing the lockdown had not been met. But at a press conference last week Boris Johnson claimed that all five tests were being achieved.
The five tests were originally set out by Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary and first secretary of state, at a press conference in April(when Johnson was ill). Here they are, with the rival assessments for each test from Johnson in his speech last week and from the ADPH yesterday in its statement.
The PM says all five tests have been passed. The ADPH accepts that the first test has been met, but on the other four it says it is too soon to be sure.


1 - NHS’s ability to cope must be protected


What PM says:

What ADPH says:

2 - Sustained and consistent fall in daily death rates
What PM says:

What ADPH says:

3 - Rate of infection decreasing to manageable levels
What PM says:

What ADPH says:

4 - Testing capacity and PPE supply at adequate levels
What PM says:

What ADPH says:

5 - No risk of a second peak that would overwhelm NHS
What PM says:

What ADPH says:

Interesting that the PM thinks the 5 tests are being met nationally....it's definitely not being met regionally.

 

[Jimishorts]

well maybe you and @peteblue can get together and talk about Chav’s , greggs and staffies and how scummie they all are . You can agree how much better the countryside is than the city without all the ‘scum’ .

Isn’t that what we’ve got the Newcastle thread for?

 

[ramacca]

PM has not met five tests for easing lockdown, says Association of Directors of Public Health
In her interview on the Today programme this morning Jeanelle de Gruchy, the president of the Association of Directors of Public Health, also claimed that the UK government’s five tests for easing the lockdown had not been met. But at a press conference last week Boris Johnson claimed that all five tests were being achieved.
The five tests were originally set out by Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary and first secretary of state, at a press conference in April(when Johnson was ill). Here they are, with the rival assessments for each test from Johnson in his speech last week and from the ADPH yesterday in its statement.
The PM says all five tests have been passed. The ADPH accepts that the first test has been met, but on the other four it says it is too soon to be sure.


1 - NHS’s ability to cope must be protected


What PM says:

What ADPH says:

2 - Sustained and consistent fall in daily death rates
What PM says:

What ADPH says:

3 - Rate of infection decreasing to manageable levels
What PM says:

What ADPH says:

4 - Testing capacity and PPE supply at adequate levels
What PM says:

What ADPH says:

5 - No risk of a second peak that would overwhelm NHS
What PM says:

What ADPH says:

Operation Johnson/Cummings/Vallance - ramp up the inhumane herd immunity.

 

[navidson]

My twisted narrative? Here's my twisted narrative mate: 64,000 people needlessly killed in this country by the people now telling us it's ok to ease the lockdown...despite health experts telling them it's too early to do so.

Is that the twisted narrative you refer to? Would you like a massive second wave of infections and deaths? Is that what you want?

Stop apologising for a murderous regime.

Don't be a child - I'm not apologising for the government's action - I'm not going to argue that every element of this hasn't been horrifically mismanaged by a gang of chancers

Your constant 'The sky is falling' mentality isn't doing anybody any good. Just because the news concentrates on a bevy of bellends on a beach doesn't mean the rest of the country is like - Like a lot of posters on here, my experience of the situation is of people adhering to guidelines, respecting each other and keeping themselves to themselves.

Other countries have taken steps that you would probably deem dubious (i.e Italy allowing people back into the country without any form of quarantine) but you conveniently seem to forget things like this - instead concentrating on whipping up a storm on here about 'murderers' (and quoting a guesstimate figure for deaths)

 

[PhilM]

Thats how the figures have always been counted, people using this as a stick still don’t get it

Genuine question: if deaths that have previously occurred are only being reported now, doesn't that mean there could be deaths now that'll be reported later?

So saying, well only x- died today out of the total reported could actually be misleading as more could have actually died to only appear later?

 

[navidson]

Genuine question: if deaths that have previously occurred are only being reported now, doesn't that mean there could be deaths now that'll be reported later?

So saying, well only x- died today out of the total reported could actually be misleading as more could have actually died to only appear later?

That's exactly what happens

 

[PhilM]

That's exactly what happens

So therefore saying the actual daily death figure is over inflated isn't a completely just and fair argument in itself because the sequence will continue?

 

[BlueStevie35]

Genuine question: if deaths that have previously occurred are only being reported now, doesn't that mean there could be deaths now that'll be reported later?

So saying, well only x- died today out of the total reported could actually be misleading as more could have actually died to only appear later?

There’s very little left being reported from March and April, the bulk of the hospital death figures are 10 days minimum back dated

They were late to add care homes so there may be some backlog on that front but as it stands there is a slow decline in the 7 day rolling average on both fronts, all deaths under 250 as of yesterday and hospitals at around 150-160 but could drop lower over the next week or so