It will be 50 % as the experts are claiming the peak to be 9th April in the UK.
You have to trust your experts, personally i find it really difficult to work out the UK, there hasnt been nearly enough testing to work out the truth of current state of play and lock down hasnt been as harsh as other badly effected countries like Italy and Spain.
Yet you have hospital deaths falling, but community and NH deaths not accounted for so can you actually trust the reported figures for modeling. Yet then there is a report of the R0 being less then 1, i find it hard based on above to see that being reliable - but im a bit dubious on R0 anyway.
The narrative is that things are improving, but case numbers have remained the same for weeks now between 4-5k, if that is the case what evidence is there that RIP numbers are going to be different in two weeks time after incubation, im not saying they wont be, its just based on numbers remaining static on infection that the death rate will be lower.
There just seems to be an unreliability, and inaccuracy of what comes out of the Uk to determine anything, well i find it difficult anyway, maybe the government are just holding the cards close to their chest. Im saying all of that with the hope that this Pox is battered by the UK and risk is reduced as soon as it possibly can be.
