I know, its very uniuqe. lol
Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!
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I know, its very uniuqe. lol
Martin Alvito
Player Valuation: £50m
Brilliant way of conceptualizing the impact, and I'm ashamed that I didn't think of the approach.
It's important to be aware that you're not comparing apples to apples when you match that number up against the government's report of COVID-19 deaths associated with a positive test result. The actuarial calculation measures the total change in deaths due to the presence of COVID-19, and makes the brave assumption that the presence of COVID-19 is the sole cause of the result...though I think that assumption is accurate enough for all practical purposes.
What the actuarial calculation does not do is measure deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 infection. It picks up changes in the death rate due to social factors (eg: suicide, alcohol/drug/cardiac event deaths related to stress, care shortages for treating non-COVID-19 conditions) in addition to deaths directly attributable to infection.
The actuarial calculation could even understate the magnitude of deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 infection. If changes in the death rate resulting from COVID-19-related lifestyle changes (eg: decrease in auto fatalities) outweigh the magnitude of increases in the death rate due to social and other factors associated with COVID-19, then the actuarial calculation will lowball the actual death rate due to infection.
More work needs to be done to get us from the actuarial calculation to an accurate imputed estimate of deaths directly attributable to infection. The necessary data should be publicly available, so we should have a good report on that soon. What we can say with certainty now is that the government's published death rate dramatically underestimates the true scope of the overall impact resulting from the introduction of the disease.
These “Hammer and Dance” posts are long but have found them informative.
Hammer and Dance
Dance Part 1
Dance part 2
including this “ according to this model, just 60% of people wearing masks that are 60% effective could, by itself, stop the epidemic.”
Hammer and Dance
Dance Part 1
Dance part 2
including this “ according to this model, just 60% of people wearing masks that are 60% effective could, by itself, stop the epidemic.”
Martin Alvito
Player Valuation: £50m
Fascinating and powerful result. Getting to 60% compliance is likely to require governmental intervention since non-compliance appears to result in a negative externality rather than direct personal harm.
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
HM Government: "Nah, doesn't make a difference".
The institutionalised murder continues.
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
If I ruled the world these people would be dealt with VERY quickly.
Jenny Harries, Moshiri or Brands for you first Dave?
The correct answer is Leighton Baines.
Locally here in Bay Area mask wearing was getting more common anyway but we now have an order
COVID-19 Local Emergency Funds
Financial assistance available for small businesses, immigrants and others impacted by the pandemic California Microbusiness COVID-19 Relief Grant The California Office of the Small Business Advocate has released new grant funding to benefit microbusinesses in San Mateo County. Applications...
www.smcgov.org
For the death stats interested among you:
Just give our friend Bungle five mins..,
I for one, welcome our new lemon overlord
LocalNative
MOSHIRI OUT
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