God only knows how, but they're a long way ahead. A win tomorrow for us will put us 8 points adrift. Of course anything is possible and it seems incredulous that they will continue their good run until the end of the season, but it will require some of the teams below us to pull their fingers out. I think this season has been an odd one in many ways with both Arsenal and Chelsea well off pace and the rest of the league below us absolutely rank. They still have a European distraction of course and a few timely injuries could see them fall apart. None of their players have experience of this kind of situation either.
Fatigue may also play a part, I did some back of the envelope stuff. They've used just 18 players this season, with an average of 18 league games between them. Of those 18 Agbonlahor, Barry, Milner, Friedal have played every game, and Ashley Young, Luke Young, Petrov, Davies and Heskey (whilst at Wigan) have played 23/24 of the 25 games. That's 8 of the 11 (9 if you include Heskey) starters playing at least 23 of the 25 matches this season. Incredibly fortunate to have such luck with injuries but using 18 players during a season is not sustainable. We've seen ourselves that small squads + lots of games = a poor end to the season. This is especially so when many of their regulars are in attacking positions so much more likely to fade than centre backs or keepers.
Contrast that with our own squad.
I'm gonna go all Keegan and say that I'd love it if we gazumped them. In the league we've used 23 players so far, and they average 14 games each. Some 4 less than their Villa counterparts. Where they've had 8 virtual ever presents, we've had just 6. Of those, 3 are Howard, Jags and Lescott. It's not uncommon for centre backs and keepers to go through a season unscathed so they don't concern me. The other three are Osman, Pip and Arteta. Osman isn't really a key player for us and his stats owe as much to his versatility as anything. I'm also not concerned about Neville as the holding role isn't the most strenuous on the pitch. So of our regulars only really Arteta is cause for concern.
So all in all, I think a Villa slump is inevitable, it all depends on whether with our injury problems we have the manpower to continue our excellent form and capitalise on it.
There is a big 5/6 week period starting in March. In that period Villa play Man City, Spurs, Liverpool, United, Us and West Ham. City and Spurs are scrapping for survival so will be very tough. Liverpool and United are scrapping for the title so again, incredibly tough (especially as both are away fixtures). By the time they get to us we 'could' be in touching distance as our fixtures over the same period are Blackburn, Stoke, Pompey, Wigan. Lets say, for sake of argument, that by the time we play Villa the gap is down to 3 points. We'll have Osman, Pienaar, Cahill, MoFo, Saha et al back in the team by then. Providing Arteta manages to go through the season unscathed I think we can do it.
COYB.
Fatigue may also play a part, I did some back of the envelope stuff. They've used just 18 players this season, with an average of 18 league games between them. Of those 18 Agbonlahor, Barry, Milner, Friedal have played every game, and Ashley Young, Luke Young, Petrov, Davies and Heskey (whilst at Wigan) have played 23/24 of the 25 games. That's 8 of the 11 (9 if you include Heskey) starters playing at least 23 of the 25 matches this season. Incredibly fortunate to have such luck with injuries but using 18 players during a season is not sustainable. We've seen ourselves that small squads + lots of games = a poor end to the season. This is especially so when many of their regulars are in attacking positions so much more likely to fade than centre backs or keepers.
Contrast that with our own squad.
I'm gonna go all Keegan and say that I'd love it if we gazumped them. In the league we've used 23 players so far, and they average 14 games each. Some 4 less than their Villa counterparts. Where they've had 8 virtual ever presents, we've had just 6. Of those, 3 are Howard, Jags and Lescott. It's not uncommon for centre backs and keepers to go through a season unscathed so they don't concern me. The other three are Osman, Pip and Arteta. Osman isn't really a key player for us and his stats owe as much to his versatility as anything. I'm also not concerned about Neville as the holding role isn't the most strenuous on the pitch. So of our regulars only really Arteta is cause for concern.
So all in all, I think a Villa slump is inevitable, it all depends on whether with our injury problems we have the manpower to continue our excellent form and capitalise on it.
There is a big 5/6 week period starting in March. In that period Villa play Man City, Spurs, Liverpool, United, Us and West Ham. City and Spurs are scrapping for survival so will be very tough. Liverpool and United are scrapping for the title so again, incredibly tough (especially as both are away fixtures). By the time they get to us we 'could' be in touching distance as our fixtures over the same period are Blackburn, Stoke, Pompey, Wigan. Lets say, for sake of argument, that by the time we play Villa the gap is down to 3 points. We'll have Osman, Pienaar, Cahill, MoFo, Saha et al back in the team by then. Providing Arteta manages to go through the season unscathed I think we can do it.
COYB.
