Current Affairs Afghanistan

[tsubaki]

I was stating they didn't do it like the Germans by being a traditional military threat; they did it uncontested. As a military force, the Taliban have no offensive capability, so it isn't 'ironically like the Germans invading France in 1940' - it's nothing like it.

this point falls down when you remember that the Taliban did take several provinces and major cities by actual fighting, Tubey

where there is a parallel with 1940 is how they did it - by getting past the fighting area and creating a panic that resulted in the government collapsing

 

[Tubey]

this point falls down when you remember that the Taliban did take several provinces and major cities by actual fighting, Tubey

where there is a parallel with 1940 is how they did it - by getting past the fighting area and creating a panic that resulted in the government collapsing

There was no fighting area, no Maginot Line, no tactical superiority - the Afghan Army gave way. It was uncontested bar the odd outpost.

There was no attempt to withdraw and 'defend Paris/Kabul'. It isn't comparable. They have no offensive capability; just because the Afghan Army didn't defend doesn't mean they suddenly do.

 

[peteblue]

I see the USA have already started removing military personnel…if Bagram was anything to go by they will be gone by the 29th at the latest…..

 

[tsubaki]

There was no fighting area, no Maginot Line, no tactical superiority - the Afghan Army gave way. It was uncontested bar the odd outpost.

There was no attempt to withdraw and 'defend Paris/Kabul'. It isn't comparable. They have no offensive capability; just because the Afghan Army didn't defend doesn't mean they suddenly do.

the French didn't attempt to defend Paris either

saying the Taliban have "no offensive capability" is patently wrong

 

[BlueTX]

Thing is though there are a lot of rumours flying around as well as supposed leaked memo’s from US mil commanders on the ground and the state dept that show that there was real intel that the Taliban would wipe away any resistance from the ANA and capture the country pdq.

This intel was either ignored or buried by the US state dept on the basis that the Doha agreement was fixed and final. The result being the absolute cluster we are seeing now at HKIA.

The US govt then decided to reassure its NATO/ISAF allies that everything was fine and under control. For this reason the NATO missions /embassies decided to keep their people in country and not commence their evac.

IMO this decision to ignore intel and not warn your so-called allies is unforgivable and as Biden is the head of the shed, this mess is on him.

Not just rumors. There are all sorts of reports from intelligence officials who say the collapse of the Afghan forces was a possibility - one of many considered. None though are claiming this was widely expected or generally assumed to be the case. Similarly, I'd suppose there are those in the intelligence community who posited the Afghan government and military could have held off the Taliban indefinitely.

No one that I have read has presented a detailed plan put forward that would have avoided this mess - other than perpetual occupation with an undetermined number of troops. Just a bunch of bitching and Monday morning quarterbacking while making the easy call to blame one person.

It's weak sauce.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Not just rumors. There are all sorts of reports from intelligence officials who say the collapse of the Afghan forces was a possibility - one of many considered. None though are claiming this was widely expected or generally assumed to be the case. Similarly, I'd suppose there are those in the intelligence community who posited the Afghan government and military could have held off the Taliban indefinitely.

No one that I have read has presented a detailed plan put forward that would have avoided this mess - other than perpetual occupation with an undetermined number of troops. Just a bunch of bitching and Monday morning quarterbacking while making the easy call to blame one person.

It's weak sauce.

I think as the man at the top - he should carry the can for this mess.

Personally I don’t think he’s arsed one bit. Stick it out until Afghanistan is off US news channels and then move on.

My point that is there was intel and the US sat on it and instead of planning for an expedited evac they simply chose to follow the Doha agreement timeline. In doing so they not only put US embassy staff / Afghan employees at risk but they also extended that risk to the NATO embassies and their staff.

Everyone should have begun their own expedited evacs weeks ago.

 

[BlueTX]

I think as the man at the top - he should carry the can for this mess.

Personally I don’t think he’s arsed one bit. Stick it out until Afghanistan is off US news channels and then move on.

My point that is there was intel and the US sat on it and instead of planning for an expedited evac they simply chose to follow the Doha agreement timeline. In doing so they not only put US embassy staff / Afghan employees at risk but they also extended that risk to the NATO embassies and their staff.

Everyone should have begun their own expedited evacs weeks ago.

He clearly will carry some measure of blame. No question. No one is arguing otherwise. Not sure why you think he's not arsed.

There was no consensus in the intelligence community in the US or elsewhere the Afghan government and military would collapse in a matter of moments. Suggesting they "sat" on the intel means you believe the US lied to her Allies about what they believed to be the most likely scenario and knowingly put US and Allied assets at risk. This may be your assumption but it's not based on clear and compelling evidence that I've seen. You referenced "rumours".

More than 70,000 have now been evacuated from Afghanistan.

 

[peteblue]

I think as the man at the top - he should carry the can for this mess.

Personally I don’t think he’s arsed one bit. Stick it out until Afghanistan is off US news channels and then move on.

My point that is there was intel and the US sat on it and instead of planning for an expedited evac they simply chose to follow the Doha agreement timeline. In doing so they not only put US embassy staff / Afghan employees at risk but they also extended that risk to the NATO embassies and their staff.

Everyone should have begun their own expedited evacs weeks ago.

It’s the complete ignoring of his NATO allies, remember Joe those that have been fighting and dying with you in Afghanistan for 20 years, that gets me.……

 

[peteblue]

He clearly will carry some measure of blame. No question. No one is arguing otherwise. Not sure why you think he's not arsed.

There was no consensus in the intelligence community in the US or elsewhere the Afghan government and military would collapse in a matter of moments. Suggesting they "sat" on the intel means you believe the US lied to her Allies about what they believed to be the most likely scenario and knowingly put US and Allied assets at risk. This may be your assumption but it's not based on clear and compelling evidence that I've seen. You referenced "rumours".

More than 70,000 have now been evacuated from Afghanistan.

Would you have been this relaxed if Trump were still President ?…..

 

[Kurt.]

Not for the decision to withdraw by 31 August 2021, a decision made by Joe Biden after being in office since January 2021, no.

It's 100% Biden. Everything Trump did could have and indeed should have been overruled by Biden on office - again, he's not continuing Trump's stupid wall just because Trump started it; that's not how presidencies work.

You don’t half talk nonsense at times mate

 

[tsubaki]

Thing is though there are a lot of rumours flying around as well as supposed leaked memo’s from US mil commanders on the ground and the state dept that show that there was real intel that the Taliban would wipe away any resistance from the ANA and capture the country pdq.

This intel was either ignored or buried by the US state dept on the basis that the Doha agreement was fixed and final. The result being the absolute cluster we are seeing now at HKIA.

The US govt then decided to reassure its NATO/ISAF allies that everything was fine and under control. For this reason the NATO missions /embassies decided to keep their people in country and not commence their evac.

IMO this decision to ignore intel and not warn your so-called allies is unforgivable and as Biden is the head of the shed, this mess is on him.

Is it ignoring intel, or is it recognising

Thing is though there are a lot of rumours flying around as well as supposed leaked memo’s from US mil commanders on the ground and the state dept that show that there was real intel that the Taliban would wipe away any resistance from the ANA and capture the country pdq.

This intel was either ignored or buried by the US state dept on the basis that the Doha agreement was fixed and final. The result being the absolute cluster we are seeing now at HKIA.

The US govt then decided to reassure its NATO/ISAF allies that everything was fine and under control. For this reason the NATO missions /embassies decided to keep their people in country and not commence their evac.

IMO this decision to ignore intel and not warn your so-called allies is unforgivable and as Biden is the head of the shed, this mess is on him.

Lots of countries did get out though, quite a long time before this. If we were lied to by the yanks then that is unforgivable, but I have my doubts.

 

[BlueTX]

Would you have been this relaxed if Trump were still President ?…..

Would you?

I can and do question Biden's policies and bag on him when I feel he's wrong or not doing what I prefer. I've mentioned multiple times that he deserves a measure of blame for what's gone wrong with the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

I've personally been dealing with the damage from the US incursions into Afghanistan and Iraq, Pete. What you may view as my being relaxed is really a perpetual state of simmered anger and resignation regarding the inevitable.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Is it ignoring intel, or is it recognising


Lots of countries did get out though, quite a long time before this. If we were lied to by the yanks then that is unforgivable, but I have my doubts.

Recognising or ignoring the Intel are effectively the same response if you choose to not act upon thinformation.

IMO Someone high up in the state dept will be made a scapegoat for this mess but I have a feeling they were only following presidential orders and sticking to the timeline agreed upon in Doha.

I see the Brits/French/Danes/Poles/Germans/Italians/Hungarians/Spanish/Japanese/Dutch all scrambling to get their people out.

All of these people were put at risk by the US decision to either recognise or ignore the intel but still do nothing about it.

I’m sure it’s all being dealt with by the back channels away from the glare of the media but I think many of these countries including the U.K. will be extremely reluctant to support the US on any future foreign escapades.

 

[peteblue]

Would you?

I can and do question Biden's policies and bag on him when I feel he's wrong or not doing what I prefer. I've mentioned multiple times that he deserves a measure of blame for what's gone wrong with the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

I've personally been dealing with the damage from the US incursions into Afghanistan and Iraq, Pete. What you may view as my being relaxed is really a perpetual state of simmered anger and resignation regarding the inevitable.

No, I think he too would have found a way to mess it up, but would not have reduced the coalition to begging the Taliban for more time. But that’s pure conjecture as it’s Biden that is President.

I think the anger you feel is what many of us are feeling, but perhaps for slightly different reasons. I am a huge supporter of the USA and it’s people and have said so on numerous occasions, but I am also a huge supporter of the U.K. and feel as much pride in my country as anyone. It is therefore slightly upsetting (British understatement) that our country, which was the first to offer support, has suffered 1/7 of all coalition military deaths over a 20 year period, is even now providing 1/7 of all coalition military in Kabul and flying out about 1/7 of all evacuees, is treated with absolute disdain and contempt by an American President who couldn’t even be bothered to consult over this matter.

Meanwhile, many additional thousands will now die, a people that has spent twenty years coming out of the dark ages will be subjugated and repressed once again and through this craven action has given both Russia and China an open season to do what they will, and they will, especially China who will now undoubtedly take over Taiwan.

The USA has lost a lot of credibility in the eyes of its remaining allies…and yes, anger is indeed one of those emotions….

 

[dublinbluenose]

As long as there are no US body bags being brought home this will blow over at home for Biden. A couple of weeks ago high 70% of Americans wanted a full withdrawl by September 11th from Afghanistan - those numbers have dropped but will go back to where they were in a month or so - it'll be seen as the right decision as long as there are no US casualties.

In the medium term it is certainly somewhat damaging from a foreign policy standpoint. Biden's first major foreign policy is quite rightly being seen as a disaster for everyone else - especially for Afghans who have been allied to the US.

Interesting to note Tajikistan has sent Pakistan's foreign minister (Taliban emissary more or less) packing. Tajiks make up a sizeable portion of the Afghanistan ethnic population. They wouldn't do that without Russian OK I'm guessing.