Current Affairs Afghanistan

[Mutzo Nutzo]

A reminder to everyone that the Taliban were able to take over the entire country in slightly longer than a month (ironically like the Germans invading France in 1940), and that other killings matter, not just US troops (like the 2-3000 Afghan civilians killed every year since 2009).

Thing is though there are a lot of rumours flying around as well as supposed leaked memo’s from US mil commanders on the ground and the state dept that show that there was real intel that the Taliban would wipe away any resistance from the ANA and capture the country pdq.

This intel was either ignored or buried by the US state dept on the basis that the Doha agreement was fixed and final. The result being the absolute cluster we are seeing now at HKIA.

The US govt then decided to reassure its NATO/ISAF allies that everything was fine and under control. For this reason the NATO missions /embassies decided to keep their people in country and not commence their evac.

IMO this decision to ignore intel and not warn your so-called allies is unforgivable and as Biden is the head of the shed, this mess is on him.

 

[Tubey]

I don't think you know anything, so there you go.

Right.

What I just said before was indisputable fact, not even opinion. The Taliban are not a traditional military force. You're one of the few people on earth who'd disagree with it.

But yeah OK, whatever.

 

[Tubey]

@Tubey are you watching the match and posting in the match thread while analysing foregn policy and military strategy in here?

Hats off if so; that is commitment to the cause.

Anything to distract me from Iwobi mate.

 

[Ruairi77]

By not setting an arbitrary deadline for withdrawal. It could and should have been far better organised.

I accept Biden didn't see the Afghan army collapsing. Fine. Its a mistake but an understandable one. But once it did, he had to change course. He hasn't due to a desire to play the part of a political strongman.

Indeed, that's the irony here. He's acting like Trump.

oh man.
The deadline was agreed by Trump and the Taliban. Biden got an extension. The Afghan govt and army collapsed in part because they were undermined by Trump who also strengthened the Taliban
If Biden ignores the deadline now, he has to pile thousands of troops in to Kabul, and try to reinstate another puppet government. No one has the appetite for that.

 

[Shevin Keedy]

Anything to distract me from Iwobi mate.

Haha.

 

[Ruairi77]

Anything to distract me from Iwobi mate.

and all of the rest of them too!

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

oh man.
The deadline was agreed by Trump and the Taliban. Biden got an extension. The Afghan govt and army collapsed in part because they were undermined by Trump who also strengthened the Taliban
If Biden ignores the deadline now, he has to pile thousands of troops in to Kabul, and try to reinstate another puppet government. No one has the appetite for that.

All he had to do was keep Bagram - reinforce it and commence evac Ops from there.

The US govt knew that the ANA would fold under Taliban pressure - they had the intel but didn’t act on it.

Instead they bugged out overnight and in doing so removed all air cover/intel/logistics for the already battle weary ANA.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

Anything to distract me from Iwobi mate.

LOL. Iwobi is the least of our concerns in this one

 

[Ruairi77]

All he had to do was keep Bagram - reinforce it and commence evac Ops from there.

The US govt knew that the ANA would fold under Taliban pressure - they had the intel but didn’t act on it.

Right, and I've said he should be criticized for Bagram and other screw ups in the withdrawal.
More arguing that he can't be held 100% responsible for the bigger picture.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Right, and I've said he should be criticized for Bagram and other screw ups in the withdrawal.
More arguing that he can't be held 100% responsible for the bigger picture.

Oh I agree - he’s not responsible for the whole thing.

 

[Tubey]

Right, and I've said he should be criticized for Bagram and other screw ups in the withdrawal.
More arguing that he can't be held 100% responsible for the bigger picture.

No you said he can't be blamed 100% on the withdrawal. He can.

This isn't 'bigger picture' stuff because Biden could and should have done many things differently, and the 'bigger picture' didn't stop him. Nothing Trump did stopped him. He decided on what he's done; it's on him.

Is Biden to blame for the US being in Afghanistan in the first place? No, of course not. But similarly, George Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump aren't to blame for what Biden is doing right now.

 

[Shevin Keedy]

I think President Joe is due to do another news conference any minute now.

 

[Ruairi77]

No you said he can't be blamed 100% on the withdrawal. He can.

This isn't 'bigger picture' stuff because Biden could and should have done many things differently, and the 'bigger picture' didn't stop him. Nothing Trump did stopped him. He decided on what he's done; it's on him.

Is Biden to blame for the US being in Afghanistan in the first place? No, of course not. But similarly, George Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump aren't to blame for what Biden is doing right now.

Right, ok, for the final time.
Biden screwed up elements of the withdrawal.
But I don't find him 100% responsible for the withdrawal because of the situation he inherited.
You disagree, fine.

 

[tsubaki]

Right.

What I just said before was indisputable fact, not even opinion. The Taliban are not a traditional military force. You're one of the few people on earth who'd disagree with it.

But yeah OK, whatever.

This is what I mean about why you are wrong - the Taliban fight in almost exactly the same way as the Mujaheddin did, as the tribes who resisted the British in the 19th century did, as the tribes who fought Alexander did. They fight in the same sort of way as how most smaller forces in any culture you care to name worldwide fight a stronger opponent when they have the advantage of terrain; its that much of a thing that two books of the Old Testament (or at least some peoples') are devoted to a war like that (1 and 2 Maccabees).

To say they aren't a "traditional military threat" because they don't stand in a battle line / wear uniforms / have bases with flagpoles is to ignore at least two millennia of recorded military tradition where smaller forces have done exactly what they have done, with great success. If they'd not fought like that, they really would not be a threat.

 

[Tubey]

This is what I mean about why you are wrong - the Taliban fight in almost exactly the same way as the Mujaheddin did, as the tribes who resisted the British in the 19th century did, as the tribes who fought Alexander did. They fight in the same sort of way as how most smaller forces in any culture you care to name worldwide fight a stronger opponent when they have the advantage of terrain; its that much of a thing that two books of the Old Testament (or at least some peoples') are devoted to a war like that (1 and 2 Maccabees).

To say they aren't a "traditional military threat" because they don't stand in a battle line / wear uniforms / have bases with flagpoles is to ignore at least two millennia of recorded military tradition where smaller forces have done exactly what they have done, with great success. If they'd not fought like that, they really would not be a threat.

Exactly that.

And the reason I was arguing with you was because of this post.

A reminder to everyone that the Taliban were able to take over the entire country in slightly longer than a month (ironically like the Germans invading France in 1940), and that other killings matter, not just US troops (like the 2-3000 Afghan civilians killed every year since 2009).

I was stating they didn't do it like the Germans by being a traditional military threat; they did it uncontested. As a military force, the Taliban have no offensive capability, so it isn't 'ironically like the Germans invading France in 1940' - it's nothing like it.