Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

[Pittsburgh Footy]

This is fascinating and what I suspect is a rather common occurrence in states where "none of the above" or "non-committed" votes are allowed in the Dem primaries. Media picks up on this and points to supposed weaknesses for Biden. Yet a decent percentage of Dem primary voters vote this way every darn time there is an incumbent Dem POTUS on the ballot. Why? Because the party is big tent of members who constantly fight among themselves. Which is actually a good thing. It's healthy. It's not a damn cult like the GOP has historically always been.

I'd wager my friend Ruairi77 is likely to vote for Biden come November if the choice is Biden v Trump. So are the vast majority of Dem primary voters who voted in the same manner, be they Democratic Party or Independent voters.

The deciding question will be... how many Haley voters don't show up in November as a Trump protest or pull a lever for Biden.

Early exit polling from Super Tuesday: 35% of North Carolina and 36% of Virginia GOP voter will not guarantee they vote GOP in November. To my memory, that's never happened.

If we thought 2020 was a referendum on Trump, we ain't seen nothing like what's going to happen in November in my opinion.

I bet if you did polling for registered Democrats with a simple question of "In a perfect world, would you like to see Biden as the Democratic nominee for President", you'd be hard pressed to find 25% that would say Yes

However, we are all going to vote for Biden come November.

I think at least half of those Haley voters are at least open to voting for Biden rather than staying home. That number would have been lower in 2020, but I think too many people see the obvious danger that Trump poses. Anecdotally, I know I got at least two of my republican acquaintances to come to the dark side and vote Biden in 2020, and I think a couple more in my sphere are open to it. This is something I have to believe is happening throughout the country among non-MAGA republicans.

I'm optimistic it really is how poll questions are worded and how the media portrays everything - the reality is Trump is simply not expanding his already dwindling base. At all

 

[Ruairi77]

If we thought 2020 was a referendum on Trump, we ain't seen nothing like what's going to happen in November in my opinion.

I bet if you did polling for registered Democrats with a simple question of "In a perfect world, would you like to see Biden as the Democratic nominee for President", you'd be hard pressed to find 25% that would say Yes

However, we are all going to vote for Biden come November.

I think at least half of those Haley voters are at least open to voting for Biden rather than staying home. That number would have been lower in 2020, but I think too many people see the obvious danger that Trump poses. Anecdotally, I know I got at least two of my republican acquaintances to come to the dark side and vote Biden in 2020, and I think a couple more in my sphere are open to it. This is something I have to believe is happening throughout the country among non-MAGA republicans.

I'm optimistic it really is how poll questions are worded and how the media portrays everything - the reality is Trump is simply not expanding his already dwindling base. At all

great to read PF.
god knows I need a tiny bit of hope!

 

[Prevenger17]

I'm optimistic it really is how poll questions are worded and how the media portrays everything - the reality is Trump is simply not expanding his already dwindling base. At all

Yeah, I think it will be alright come crunch time. Both candidates are going in with far less momentum and enthusiasm than the last time and this probably favours Biden. But I am still appalled at the Democrats for allowing it to be even a question

 

[Ruairi77]

Haley officially bowed out quoting Thatcher on her way.
We havent seen the last of Nikki 'embrios are babies' Haley

 

[carolinablue232]

Haley is out

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/06/politics/nikki-haley-2024-presidential-race/index.html

Let's see where her supporters go now. Most won't be enough to flip a presumptive red state, but maybe there's hope they help flip North Carolina and a couple others.

 

[Martin Alvito]

If we thought 2020 was a referendum on Trump, we ain't seen nothing like what's going to happen in November in my opinion.

I bet if you did polling for registered Democrats with a simple question of "In a perfect world, would you like to see Biden as the Democratic nominee for President", you'd be hard pressed to find 25% that would say Yes

However, we are all going to vote for Biden come November.

I think at least half of those Haley voters are at least open to voting for Biden rather than staying home. That number would have been lower in 2020, but I think too many people see the obvious danger that Trump poses. Anecdotally, I know I got at least two of my republican acquaintances to come to the dark side and vote Biden in 2020, and I think a couple more in my sphere are open to it. This is something I have to believe is happening throughout the country among non-MAGA republicans.

I'm optimistic it really is how poll questions are worded and how the media portrays everything - the reality is Trump is simply not expanding his already dwindling base. At all

It will more or less come down to what that ten percent of voters who poll as undecided do, unless the race changes substantially between now and November.

I can't imagine anyone with a pulse above the age of seventeen not having a relative preference at this point, so for my money the only explanation is social desirability effects. The question is what proportion of them doesn't want to admit to intention to vote for the man enabling the systematic bombing and starvation of two million people, and what proportion doesn't want to admit to intention to vote for a loudmouthed bigot out of financial self-interest.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

It will more or less come down to what that ten percent of voters who poll as undecided do, unless the race changes substantially between now and November.

I can't imagine anyone with a pulse above the age of seventeen not having a relative preference at this point, so for my money the only explanation is social desirability effects. The question is what proportion of them doesn't want to admit to intention to vote for the man enabling the systematic bombing and starvation of two million people, and what proportion doesn't want to admit to intention to vote for a loudmouthed bigot out of financial self-interest.

This has literally been American policy for forever. To think otherwise is comical

It doesn't make it right. It just makes it what it is. It's not like the other side would be doing anything different.

 

[BlueTX]

If we thought 2020 was a referendum on Trump, we ain't seen nothing like what's going to happen in November in my opinion.

I bet if you did polling for registered Democrats with a simple question of "In a perfect world, would you like to see Biden as the Democratic nominee for President", you'd be hard pressed to find 25% that would say Yes

However, we are all going to vote for Biden come November.

I think at least half of those Haley voters are at least open to voting for Biden rather than staying home. That number would have been lower in 2020, but I think too many people see the obvious danger that Trump poses. Anecdotally, I know I got at least two of my republican acquaintances to come to the dark side and vote Biden in 2020, and I think a couple more in my sphere are open to it. This is something I have to believe is happening throughout the country among non-MAGA republicans.

I'm optimistic it really is how poll questions are worded and how the media portrays everything - the reality is Trump is simply not expanding his already dwindling base. At all

I believe your opinion regarding a referendum on Trump is precisely correct. Further, Dems have traditionally wanted to love their candidate (Obama) and often struggle to do well when there is not a deep affection (H. Clinton). Given there is no passion *for* Biden the battlefield will be less about Biden's accomplishments (largely good) and rather more about Trump, both personally and politically.

Best guess right now is Biden will pick off 50-100% more GOP voters as he did last time and see no evidence Trump has expanded his base. The key will still be Dem turnout. Can the Biden campaign gin up enough fear of a return of the Putin/Kim wannabe to get Dems to vote? They'll have a massive war chest to get the message out.

 

[TN Toffee]

This has literally been American policy for forever. To think otherwise is comical

It doesn't make it right. It just makes it what it is. It's not like the other side would be doing anything different.

This was my takeaway from that guy in the Air Force who set himself on fire last week as an act of protest. The American military is a volunteer organization and has been for 50 years. Anyone who has paid any attention would know signing up might mean involvement in some unsavory things.

 

[verreauxi]

No matter if Biden actually wins, the aftermath of the election will be chaos due to Trump and his lackeys rabble-rousing the Christian nationalists and the fascist sections of his base.

 

[Ruairi77]

well, my city (Somerville MA, pop about 100k) went 23% no preference. The highest in the state.
Not sure if any of this stuff will move the needle at all. But it's good to shout about something when your federal vote doesn't matter at all.

 

[carolinablue232]

No matter if Biden actually wins, the aftermath of the election will be chaos due to Trump and his lackeys rabble-rousing the Christian nationalists and the fascist sections of his base.

I’m sure there will be some immediate chaos but I’m more hopeful a Biden victory actually represents a turning point and Trump just fades into the background and we return to some sense of normalcy. This has to be his last shot, and as much as he has his supporters, the crazies aren’t going to overrun anything. I’d wager 80% if not more are going to reluctantly accept this and go about their days.

I’m just worried he actually wins. The chaos that ensues then will be far worse.

 

[verreauxi]

I’m sure there will be some immediate chaos but I’m more hopeful a Biden victory actually represents a turning point and Trump just fades into the background and we return to some sense of normalcy. This has to be his last shot, and as much as he has his supporters, the crazies aren’t going to overrun anything. I’d wager 80% if not more are going to reluctantly accept this and go about their days.

I’m just worried he actually wins. The chaos that ensues then will be far worse.

I hope you're right for sure! ...but I have my doubts. Trump is simply incapable of accepting a defeat or admitting to any fault and will do anything to stay relevant. But damn I hope you're right.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

I’m sure there will be some immediate chaos but I’m more hopeful a Biden victory actually represents a turning point and Trump just fades into the background and we return to some sense of normalcy. This has to be his last shot, and as much as he has his supporters, the crazies aren’t going to overrun anything. I’d wager 80% if not more are going to reluctantly accept this and go about their days.

I’m just worried he actually wins. The chaos that ensues then will be far worse.

I hear you, but I've long held the belief that Trump is simply a symptom of the larger problem.

When he dies/becomes incapacitated and someone else takes up his mantle, the reality is the red meat that he's been peddling to his flock for the last decade will need to continue to be fed. Trump exists because it's what "the people" want. And we now have a very large minority of people that, I believe, are going to continue to live in that parallel universe when he's gone.

We can't put that genie back in the bottle. We are broken

 

[LostLegend]

I think the GOP has a massive problem once Trump is out of the picture.

As said earlier, this is probably his last chance to get back into the White House and once he’s gone, who are they left with?
None of the beige, evangelical psychopaths infesting the party have anywhere near the *cough* ‘personality’ to pull off the fan base Trump has with the loony rhetoric on top.

God forbid, they might have to find someone half sensible to run next time to get the moderate Republicans back on side.