Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

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Ruairi77 said:
Just voted in our primary.
I'm un affiliated/independent which in MA means I can pick a dem or gop ballot.
So basically in this wacky system where my vote doesnt count on the federal stage,
I had a choice between voting 'none of the above' on the dem ballot to protest US involvement in Gaza
or Nikki Haley on the Rep. one to try and slow Trumps roll.

I went for the dem ballot.

Such a strange system!
Click to expand...
This is fascinating and what I suspect is a rather common occurrence in states where "none of the above" or "non-committed" votes are allowed in the Dem primaries. Media picks up on this and points to supposed weaknesses for Biden. Yet a decent percentage of Dem primary voters vote this way every darn time there is an incumbent Dem POTUS on the ballot. Why? Because the party is big tent of members who constantly fight among themselves. Which is actually a good thing. It's healthy. It's not a damn cult like the GOP has historically always been.

I'd wager my friend Ruairi77 is likely to vote for Biden come November if the choice is Biden v Trump. So are the vast majority of Dem primary voters who voted in the same manner, be they Democratic Party or Independent voters.

The deciding question will be... how many Haley voters don't show up in November as a Trump protest or pull a lever for Biden.

Early exit polling from Super Tuesday: 35% of North Carolina and 36% of Virginia GOP voter will not guarantee they vote GOP in November. To my memory, that's never happened.
 
BlueTX said:
This is fascinating and what I suspect is a rather common occurrence in states where "none of the above" or "non-committed" votes are allowed in the Dem primaries. Media picks up on this and points to supposed weaknesses for Biden. Yet a decent percentage of Dem primary voters vote this way every darn time there is an incumbent Dem POTUS on the ballot. Why? Because the party is big tent of members who constantly fight among themselves. Which is actually a good thing. It's healthy. It's not a damn cult like the GOP has historically always been.

I'd wager my friend Ruairi77 is likely to vote for Biden come November if the choice is Biden v Trump. So are the vast majority of Dem primary voters who voted in the same manner, be they Democratic Party or Independent voters.

The deciding question will be... how many Haley voters don't show up in November as a Trump protest or pull a lever for Biden.

Early exit polling from Super Tuesday: 35% of North Carolina and 36% of Virginia GOP voter will not guarantee they vote GOP in November. To my memory, that's never happened.
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oh yea, I'll 100% vote for Biden over Trump.

As for the primaries here in MA, I've had the vote since 2012 so with the exception of that Obama incumbency, this is the first primary for me with an incumbent Democratic POTUS. It's also the first time I've noticed a primary vote to be used to make a political point (this time re. Gaza) but I'm relatively new to all this.

What I do find different this time around is the apathy among my peers. They are all well informed and will vote against Trump but not one of them will go up to NH and canvas or phone bank. This is a marked difference to every election I've witnessed (Obama 08 being the first). No one even wants to talk about the election. The attitude seems to be 'head down and hope to God that in Mid November Trump isnt president.

The momentum isnt there... yet.
 
Ruairi77 said:
Just voted in our primary.
I'm un affiliated/independent which in MA means I can pick a dem or gop ballot.
So basically in this wacky system where my vote doesnt count on the federal stage,
I had a choice between voting 'none of the above' on the dem ballot to protest US involvement in Gaza
or Nikki Haley on the Rep. one to try and slow Trumps roll.

I went for the dem ballot.

Such a strange system!
Click to expand...
I live in Colorado now and am also an independent/unaffiliated voter. Same system for us where I got sent ballots for each party with a choice to pick one. Given my ballot is effectively meaningless I didn’t give it any thought, but what I found most interesting was the amount spam texts I kept getting to support Nikki Haley. I think I got 4 of them and 0 for anyone else on either side.
 
carolinablue232 said:
I live in Colorado now and am also an independent/unaffiliated voter. Same system for us where I got sent ballots for each party with a choice to pick one. Given my ballot is effectively meaningless I didn’t give it any thought, but what I found most interesting was the amount spam texts I kept getting to support Nikki Haley. I think I got 4 of them and 0 for anyone else on either side.
Click to expand...
I went to Greenville to visit my sister last weekend when the SC primary was taking place. Literally every commercial break was just an endless loop of about five different Haley ads. It was completely pointless overkill.
 
LostLegend said:
What’s the deal with this Project 2025 I keep hearing about?

Project 2025 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

Is this actually a thing the GOP are planning or just scare mongering? Is it even possible legally to do all of these things?
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I have no idea about whether it's currently legal or not. I will say though, Republicans have proven to be absolute masters at working within the rules while also finding every possible loophole within said rules so that they can eventually tear them down. I'd have to imagine there is a good bit of that going on in this case.

I'd say it's unlikely it happens the day he takes office if, God forbid, Trumps wins. However, Republicans are good at playing the long game in a way that I don't see Democrats willing to be. It took them 50 years, and a little bit of luck, but they got Roe v Wade overturned. Even then, without Trump winning in 2016, it likely never would have happened. I don't think even McConnell was cynical enough to hold up filling Scalia's SCOTUS seat through another full term, and RBG might have sworn Hillary in as President and then immediately announced her retirement if the 2016 election had gone the other way.

Meanwhile, you've got a fair number of people on the other side of the spectrum who have been threatening for three years to sit out this fall and likely hand the White House back to Trump solely because Biden wasn't able to wave a magic wand the day he took office and make their student loans disappear. I imagine that has a lot to do with demographics, as the Democrats voters often tend to be younger and more idealistic. Those sorts of people are far less likely to celebrate the smaller, more incremental victories that are actually the way change happens. It was the same sort of people pouting in a corner about Hillary in 2016 that got Trump elected in the first place.
 
LostLegend said:
What’s the deal with this Project 2025 I keep hearing about?

Project 2025 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

Is this actually a thing the GOP are planning or just scare mongering? Is it even possible legally to do all of these things?
Click to expand...
It's as legal as the Supreme Court says it is, but that's not the relevant question.

The thought process seems to be that anything with the support of 34 senators is "legal enough" in the sense that Trump cannot be removed over it. Andrew Johnson once defied Congress and got away with it by a one-vote margin in the Senate trial. Reality is that Trump cannot act as a dictator, but he can thumb his nose at Congress and/or the Supreme Court as much as he likes so long as he retains that level of support.

The minimum coalition of support necessary to reach that Senate threshold in Republican states covers 54 Congressional districts (ignoring 2020 reapportionment as trivial). In other words, one-sixteenth of the population of the United States (50% + 1 of one-eighth) can more or less dictate to the rest of us if they wish at the federal level, provided they elect senators that reflect their preferences.

This is how we get broadly unpopular things like farm subsidies that stick. These people seem to be thinking that they can damage the federal government beyond repair, given four years with which to wreak havoc. Sure, there will be a backlash, but they're betting the collective will to undo the damage (which requires a much higher Senate vote threshold) won't be there, and that the brain drain at DoJ and the FBI won't be curable either.
 
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