Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race
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Martin Alvito
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Probably the latter. Hillary Clinton's husband worked to bring peace to the region. Biden has always been unabashedly pro-Israel.
Martin Alvito
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RFK Jr. is now in Perot territory. Probably won't last, but it speaks to how either side wins if they can line up behind a quality candidate, and the other doesn't.
Biden and Trump are among the worst prospective candidates in modern history going into this election, by any reasonable standard.
Biden and Trump are among the worst prospective candidates in modern history going into this election, by any reasonable standard.
carolinablue232
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I think he’ll hold his numbers longer than others have in recent memory. He’s currently getting more of the independent support than either Biden or Trump, and I really do think people are getting tired of the reality of the current system which is always seeming more and more, “If you don’t agree with everything I say then you’re the enemy.” I’d wager a good portion of RFKs support don’t know much about his actual beliefs, but they do know he’s not the same thing which is just getting worse and worse. Hope it’s a wake up to the rest of them if nothing else.
Martin Alvito
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A similar process happened with Perot. There was even more 'Please, God, anything but this' sentiment in '92, judging by the numbers, though the divisions were nowhere near as deep. Perot peaked with the lead in June in the mid-thirties, but as voters got to know him, they liked him less. That's the normal way of it with a billionaire, be he Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. Buffett is the exception that proves the rule. Either he is the best liar I have ever seen, or he's a sharp man who pulled the lever on the slot machine, received a winning lottery ticket in return and knows it. The latter is rare.
I suppose that, in a way, RFK Jr. embodies what many independents want. He spent his career sledding uphill against the government and corporations fighting for the disadvantaged, and the environment. He profited enormously from it, but that's beside the point. He did the lifting. He wants to tax the rich, and his work makes that claim credible. He appeals to the vaccine skeptics who don't trust the government, and some of the 'fight the power' crowd that leans left will forgive that.
For the first time, I'm genuinely concerned for Bidens chances.
I think he (and Harris) should drop out and see what happens.
I think he's done a very good job but I do think he's too old (as is Trump).
I also think his politics tends to swing to what ever is 'in'. Fully back Israel, oooh hang on, dial it back a tiny bit, wait that's not working, what do you mean I'm losing key demographics in swing states...'
He himself said he was only running in 2020 as a stop gap to get things back on course.
It's not too late Joe (I hope)
I think he (and Harris) should drop out and see what happens.
I think he's done a very good job but I do think he's too old (as is Trump).
I also think his politics tends to swing to what ever is 'in'. Fully back Israel, oooh hang on, dial it back a tiny bit, wait that's not working, what do you mean I'm losing key demographics in swing states...'
He himself said he was only running in 2020 as a stop gap to get things back on course.
It's not too late Joe (I hope)
Martin Alvito
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What happens is a feeding frenzy of opposition research after everyone on the sidelines who wants to have a go dives in. The winner staggers out, bloodied, to face Trump. God only knows what today's presidential money would turn up even on candidates who won expensive primaries like Newsom and Hochul. If there were something on Warnock, they already would have found it, in the same way that we all know what's there on Fetterman.
This process is also probably better than running Biden.
One advantage the Republicans anointing their second-place finisher in the last go-round provides, far more often than not, is that there's nothing left to find. Democrats, however, like fresh faces. They tend to win when they run someone with the charisma of a Clinton or an Obama. They tend to lose when they don't.
I honestly think the Democrats would be better off going back to smoke-filled back rooms, when it comes to winning elections. If Biden withdraws at this stage of the game, that's not all that unlikely an outcome. There may not be enough time between now and Super Tuesday for a clean frontrunner to emerge.
There are plenty of people who disagree with me, and think that the primary vetting prevents big surprises during the run-up to the general.
It's just so depressing that there are so many in this country that look at Trump and say, yeah, that's my guy
It really affects my mental health sometimes
As we've discussed ad nauseam on this forum, no one wanted Biden even in 2020. But he's done a pretty decent job thus far, and if he were a better speaker, I think he'd get more credit for what his administration has actually accomplished.
As with all elections, it comes down to the alternative. We live in a world where Biden's deficiencies are seen in an equivalent light to Trump's. Or the party that he represents. The "sane" one in that party talked recently about how "wokeness" is a virus more devastating than any viral pandemic
I mean, I just can't with these people
yea 100% with you PF. It does get to my mental health too.
My big fear is that the youth vote might not turn out for Biden. It might not turn out at all.
The republicans are just hoping that Roe is far enough in the rear view mirror that younger voters outrage will have simmered.
Thats where we're at.
carolinablue232
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Good point. His record/stance on vaccines is troublesome, but in some ways, maybe there’s less to forgive with RFK. He’s not got my vote, but I certainly can understand why he’s gaining momentum.
Martin Alvito
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It even gets to me on rare occasion, and that's after nearly twenty years after learning to treat a presidential election like the World Cup, and look at the whole process from a purely analytical perspective. You won't find anyone around here with more armor and cynicism than me, when it comes to politics.
If I were feeling really cynical, I would argue that Trump was elected because he's more multi-millionaire politician and less actual billionaire. He embodies all those impulses that keep some voters from becoming a massive financial success. He self-sabotages, he's crude, he's prejudiced and poorly spoken. He's a short-term thinker to such a degree that he can't engage in the sort of Mitch McConnell genuine ruthlessness that turns voters off. He's a decent fraction of the electorate, if they were born with a silver spoon in their mouths and had the sheer chutzpah the man has, and they wish they had. He's wish fulfillment.
That has always been the image Trump sold. "I have the secret to success. It's not changing you. I'm just like you. All you have to do is what I do." His way doesn't work, but too many people only see the surface image. They see the gold faucets on the plane, and don't see that no one gets rich with that kind of waste. You can stay rich that way, if you can monetize conspicuous consumption and fame, but that's not the pathway to wealth.
Sadly, we live in an Instagram world, now. Influencers invest money in a lifestyle to make more from people gawking at it, and skimming from viewers' purchases of what they hawk. It's door-to-door sales with hugely expanded reach, per unit of time invested. It's wish fulfillment.
There was tremendous demand for authenticity rather than Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous for a few years, after the Reagan-era hangover. It just didn't last. Trump hit the skids, and grunge was in. Then the global economy took off again, and the Spice Girls and Britney Spears happened. Angst was out, and bubblegum was back in. It's probably not an accident that the '70s and early '90s churned out more music and movies with long-term relevance than many other time periods. Those were challenging economic times.
RFK Jr. and cultural trends like makeup-free celebrity selfies suggest we're cycling back around toward that desire for authenticity. That should benefit people like Biden and Buttegieg, in the end. Trump may have hijacked the Republican Party, but he's also running against a garbage field. His most serious challenger, IMO, was once his Israel apologist-in-chief. He's sitting on the witness stand right now dodging every question and attacking the judge, which is beyond idiocy when the judge is the jury. Even Republicans ridicule Giuliani, and yet Trump sits there on the stand uttering quotes that sound just like Giuliani.
I could be wrong, but what I'm seeing from Trump in recent weeks looks like the pressure getting to him the same way it got to Nixon.
carolinablue232
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That’s almost all of them…Very few actually hold any sort of line on what they actually think is right or wrong. But yes, Biden is too old, Kamala is unlikely to win anything, and they both need to step aside…A competent Dem with a decent track record gets the job done. Still not sure who that is, but Biden just needs to retire.
Drico
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Trump returning would be a disaster, but Biden's appalling handing of the Israelis means I am less invested in his winning now. If he's going to behave in this manner and dismiss the human rights of the Palestinians, well, what difference would it make if Trump was in power. Actually, Trump might even come with the added bonus of ending the carnage in Ukraine.
If the US is not going to defend human rights universally (meaning Ukrainian AND Palestinian alike), then I can't work myself up for Biden anymore.
If the US is not going to defend human rights universally (meaning Ukrainian AND Palestinian alike), then I can't work myself up for Biden anymore.
Martin Alvito
Player Valuation: £50m
Buttegieg is one way. It's risky. He will activate elements of Trump's base. He will activate elements of the Democratic base. It's not clear which side this helps. He scores well on the authenticity dimension. Whether that pulls enough right-leaning independents is another question.
As I have said, Aguilar is another. Name recognition is a problem. He can't win the primary. He works in the wrong wing of the Capitol. He might emerge from a smoke-filled back room. He may be a touch too smooth for the present environment. He's leadership, but votes slightly centrist as Democrats go. He shores up one of Biden's big weaknesses in 2020. That may well be enough to overcome the damage to Biden in key swing states since October 7.
Beyond that, you're looking at the obvious governors: Newsom, Hochul, Whitmer, Beshear (assuming he wins tomorrow). You're looking at the list of obvious senators: Kelly, Ossoff, Warnock. Fetterman has big upside and big downside. Many of the more likely alternatives gamble a state governor's mansion or Senate seat as part and parcel. Most of them are young, by presidential standards. The rest are at least not old.
It's the Democratic Party, so outside of Buttegieg I wouldn't expect to see recycled faces. Prior to Biden, the last Democrat to win the White House for the first time above the age of 55 without having been elevated from the vice presidency was Woodrow Wilson. All of them were first-time presidential candidates. In other words, in the era of primaries Biden is the only Democrat who ever lost a presidential primary (twice) and then went on to secure the White House.
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