Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

[Pittsburgh Footy]

First day of voting for me is Thursday!

A quick google search shows that 50% of DeKalb County is Black, 28% White.

THIS is what people mean when they talk about voter suppression, particularly in the South. This line isn't even on election day.

Anecdotal, but I lived for more than a decade within the City of Pittsburgh and now live a quarter mile outside the city proper. I would say comfortably that the average time it has taken me to vote from the moment I park my car to when I'm back in my car is less than 10 minutes.

 

[davek]

If you are asking about whether polling firms themselves can be politically biased, the answer is yes. And it is strategic to released biased polls as this influences voter turnout--people are less likely to vote for their candidate if their candidate is predicted to lose badly.
Here is an article on this: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html

And also look at the "Trafalgar group" wikipedia page. And also "American Greatness" produces laughably biased polls.
Simon Rosenberg's substack is also good for learning more about biased polls.

If they're that obvious then people would view them as joke polls, in which case the object of the exercise would be pretty moot.

The polls have been narrowing - and mainstream pollsters underline that. They cant all be in Trump's hands can they?

Look, the polls have swung Harris's way for a long spell - no one was talking about dodgy polls then. The polls are swinging the other way atm and some people have put their tin foil hats on to explain them away.

 

[MrPerfectNot]

If they're that obvious then people would view them as joke polls, in which case the object of the exercise would be pretty moot.

Not all people share your eye for nuance.

 

[Ruairi77]

 

[verreauxi]

Look, the polls have swung Harris's way for a long spell - no one was talking about dodgy polls then. The polls are swinging the other way atm and some people have put their tin foil hats on to explain them away.

Are you just asking questions...trying to see both sides...? ...incredible Roganism here, which is what I would expect of someone who cannot ever ever admit they are wrong or ignorant about an issue.

 

[davek]

Are you just asking questions...trying to see both sides...? ...incredible Roganism here, which is what I would expect of someone who cannot ever ever admit they are wrong or ignorant about an issue.

I support Harris, with massive reservations. But it's ridiculous to accept the conspiracy theory of some of her supporters if you forever make it your point to deride the conspiracies of the Trump supporters.

That's something you need to think about not me.

 

[wandyr79]

I support Harris, with massive reservations. But it's ridiculous to accept the conspiracy theory of some of her supporters if you forever make it your point to deride the conspiracies of the Trump supporters.

That's something you need to think about not me.

There is a massive part of human behaviour that means they see what they want to see.

Considering what is at stake it is only natural that if you are on one side of the argument then you will look at ways to justify your side winning. When a poll that shows Harris leading people want it to be true, and vice versa.

I personally try not to consider any poll as 'factual', or anywhere close to being a true representation of the country/State/County as a whole.

 

[davek]

There is a massive part of human behaviour that means they see what they want to see.

Considering what is at stake it is only natural that if you are on one side of the argument then you will look at ways to justify your side winning. When a poll that shows Harris leading people want it to be true, and vice versa.

I personally try not to consider any poll as 'factual', or anywhere close to being a true representation of the country/State/County as a whole.

I agree entirely.

That was my point.

 

[bicycleheader]

I support Harris, with massive reservations. But it's ridiculous to accept the conspiracy theory of some of her supporters if you forever make it your point to deride the conspiracies of the Trump supporters.

That's something you need to think about not me.

What’s the conspiracy theory of some of her supporters, if you could clarify?

Just so that the supporters here know exactly what they should think about

 

[tantavisiteler]

Trump having better polls today :O

 

[TN Toffee]

A quick google search shows that 50% of DeKalb County is Black, 28% White.

THIS is what people mean when they talk about voter suppression, particularly in the South. This line isn't even on election day.

Anecdotal, but I lived for more than a decade within the City of Pittsburgh and now live a quarter mile outside the city proper. I would say comfortably that the average time it has taken me to vote from the moment I park my car to when I'm back in my car is less than 10 minutes.

Same story for me me suburban TN, but I always do early voting. The only exception was 2020 where they encouraged as many people to early vote as possible, and COVID protocols were in place so there were limits on how many people could be inside at one time. Think I waited a couple hours that year.

 

[davek]

What’s the conspiracy theory of some of her supporters, if you could clarify?

Just so that the supporters here know exactly what they should think about

I mean, you could just have read back a few pages...

 

[Jcr1878]

Trump is obviously gaining in the polls but look at the betting markets. Close to 2 billion dollars put on Polymarket in total with Trump winning by 20 points now?!

It’s crazy, are people seeing something that we aren’t because to me it still looks like a tight race not a 60-40 race.

 

[bicycleheader]

I mean, you could just have read back a few pages...

Yeah I read it Dave, I just wanted you to be specific to what you are saying as you have a tendency to move around a lot to avoid being pinned down to a specific point

Bit of stretch your comment on that, given one person posted it saying it's terrible that they are even thinking to believe it and one other person just replied to it. No sign of anybody picking it up and running with it as fact. You tried to draw some lines from ridiculing the utter clownshow happening on one side, to tentatively mentioning one wild take....it's a stretch and it shows your motives all too clearly

 

[Harryflashman]

Trump is obviously gaining in the polls but look at the betting markets. Close to 2 billion dollars put on Polymarket in total with Trump winning by 20 points now?!

It’s crazy, are people seeing something that we aren’t because to me it still looks like a tight race not a 60-40 race.

Said this the other day can’t make this out at all