Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary

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Presidential hopeful Beto O’Rourke has gone into a “quiet period” ahead of staging a “reintroduction” of his campaign, the Associated Press reports. The charismatic candidate in the Democratic party primary enjoyed huge popularity when he launched his campaign, with his signature leaping on tables to address crowds, in mid-March. But since then, his placement in the polls has gradually shuffled lower, especially after key candidates like Joe Biden officially joined the race.

Recognizing his star power is fading, the 46-year-old plans to relaunch his campaign to try to recapture the buzz that surrounded his early days on the campaign trail, according to the AP, quoting an unnamed campaign adviser who says he will appear on The View on Tuesday as part of the reset attempt.
 
Presidential hopeful Beto O’Rourke has gone into a “quiet period” ahead of staging a “reintroduction” of his campaign, the Associated Press reports. The charismatic candidate in the Democratic party primary enjoyed huge popularity when he launched his campaign, with his signature leaping on tables to address crowds, in mid-March. But since then, his placement in the polls has gradually shuffled lower, especially after key candidates like Joe Biden officially joined the race.

Recognizing his star power is fading, the 46-year-old plans to relaunch his campaign to try to recapture the buzz that surrounded his early days on the campaign trail, according to the AP, quoting an unnamed campaign adviser who says he will appear on The View on Tuesday as part of the reset attempt.

Loving the new look so far...

Newest Beto O’Rourke Hire Lobbied for Keystone XL, Seaworld, and Private Prisons
https://theintercept.com/2019/05/11/beto-orourke-campaign-staff-lobbyist-keystone-xl/

Beto O’Rourke’s Thursday hiring of Jeff Berman, a Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton veteran, is the latest step his presidential campaign has taken away from the insurgent energy of his Senate run and toward a more centrist and corporate strategic direction.

Berman, who is joining O’Rourke’s campaign as senior adviser for delegate strategy, is perhaps most well known for his expertise in the arcane system of delegate selection, which he used to help Barack Obama win the Democratic nomination in 2008. An often overlooked part of his record, though, is his stint at law and lobbying firm Bryan Cave, a position for which he was hired immediately after Obama’s presidential campaign. (As reporter Ken Silverstein remarked in Harpers at the time: “That was fast.”) According to the federal lobbying registry, between 2009 and 2011 Berman’s clients on behalf of Bryan Cave included the private prison company GEO Group; TransCanada, the company behind the Keystone XL pipeline; and SeaWorld, which was then owned by massive private equity firm Blackstone.

Many of these clients are ostensibly on the opposite side of many of the issues that O’Rourke is campaigning on. Take, for example, immigration, a central theme of O’Rourke’s presidential run: He launched his campaign in the border town of El Paso, Texas, railing against Donald Trump’s immigration policies and stating, “For more than 100 years, this community has welcomed generations of immigrants from across the Rio Grande.” Yet the GEO Group, for which Berman’s work (along with other lobbyists) made Bryan Cave $60,000 in 2010, has profited handily from its business of running private prisons, including immigrant detention centers. According to reporting from the Daily Beast, the GEO Group made large donations to Trump’s campaign and has only seen its revenue soar under the current administration, earning $2.3 billion in 2018, up from $2.18 billion in 2016. Berman’s work on behalf of the GEO Group was for “outreach related to the Bureau of Prisons budget allocation in the Administration’s FY2011 budget,” according to federal filings.

O’Rourke has also been trying to shore up his climate change bonafides in response to the young activist base of the Democratic Party. After being heavily criticized for breaking his pledge to not take money from fossil fuel executives during his Senate campaign, O’Rourke made the first major policy proposal of his presidential run a $5 trillion plan to combat climate change. And, after much pressure, O’Rourke again pledged to take in no fossil fuel money, promising to return donations already made to his campaign by fossil fuel executives.

Yet Berman’s past work on behalf of TransCanada between 2009 and 2011 puts O’Rourke’s newest staffer squarely on the opposite side of one of the most contentious climate issues during Obama’s tenure. As HuffPost reported when the Clinton campaign hired Berman, he and other officials from Bryan Cave made the firm $980,000 for their lobbying work for TransCanada.

According to the filings, Berman and others lobbied to help obtain “approval for Keystone Pipeline path through Missouri tracts” and later to “monitor climate change legislation and [push for a] presidential permit process for TransCanada Keystone Pipeline.” (Other lobbying objectives were listed, but they largely mirrored these two.)
 
But not to be outdone,

Joe Biden’s Union Schtick Is All Performance. His Pollster Just Signed Up to Lobby Against Labor for Trump’s NAFTA 2.0.
https://theintercept.com/2019/05/10/biden-lobbying-usmca-nafta/

John Anzalone, an adviser and pollster for Joe Biden, is working for an industry-funded lobbying group formed to help pass President Donald Trump’s NAFTA 2.0, which unions have thus far opposed. The announcement was first made in Politico Playbook.

Anzalone is the president of Anzalone Liszt, a prominent Democratic polling firm. He is joining Trade Works for America, an organization co-founded by Marc Short, who is now Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff. Funding for the group, which expects to spend $15 million to $20 million, comes from “the pharmaceutical industry, oil and gas, the automotive and agricultural sectors, and traditional GOP donors.”

Trade Works has bipartisan co-chairs: former Republican Governors Association Executive Director Phil Cox, and former North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat. Last year, when she was in office, Heitkamp declared NAFTA 2.0, which Trump has termed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, “disappointing.” (Anzalone, as a pollster, isn’t required to register as a lobbyist if he doesn’t spend a significant amount of time talking directly to lawmakers or their staff.)

Unions share Heitkamp’s prior assessment. The AFL-CIO formally announced opposition to USMCA in its current form in March. “The NAFTA renegotiation requires strong labor rights provisions and strong enforcement provisions that as of today are not yet in the agreement,” their statement read. The agreement also locks in protections for certain pharmaceuticals, which progressives have loudly opposed.

Biden has sought to position himself as a union stalwart, kicking off his campaign at a Teamsters local and winning the endorsement of the International Association of Fire Fighters. But he also had his first fundraiser hosted by a union-busting lawyer, and this week he held another fundraiser in Los Angeles at the home of a board member of Kaiser Permanente, the hospital chain currently mired in a labor dispute with the National Union of Healthcare Workers. Health care workers picketed the Biden fundraiser on Wednesday. Now, his pollster has joined an organization dedicated to passing a trade agreement labor unions are against.

Biden has also set himself up almost entirely in opposition to Trump, while his pollster pushes to get Trump a win on trade policy, a signature issue for the president.

* * *

Wait until the China stuff from the oppo folder on Biden starts to come out...

Hard to think of a better campaign wedge for the GOP: it combines 'the elites are out to get you' with 'the elites sold out your jobs to China', a message that resonates best in all the states the GOP needs to hold, while also making the Democrats look like hypocrites on Russia.

Meanwhile, in response, Biden will run exactly the same campaign as Hillary and Jeb Bush, reminding people that actually, everything is already great.
 
Hard to think of a better campaign wedge for the GOP: it combines 'the elites are out to get you' with 'the elites sold out your jobs to China', a message that resonates best in all the states the GOP needs to hold, while also making the Democrats look like hypocrites on Russia.
I don’t think it is as clear cut as that - overall views on trade have improved along with the economy
Line graph. A new high of 74% view trade as an opportunity for U.S. economic growth rather than a threat from foreign imports.


I agree that the regional effects will be very interesting as those that benefit from trade wars tend to be very concentrated and those hurt more diffuse. However both farmers and industries that rely on imports like car manufacturers are being hit pretty hard and they are often areas that Trump needs for relection just as much as the steelworker who may have gained a job through Trump’s policies.
 
Those 20 electoral votes that Pennsylvania has will be pretty key to who wins in 20


In an early look at the 2020 presidential election in Pennsylvania, former Vice President Joseph Biden is over the 50 percent mark in a matchup with President Donald Trump, leading 53 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

Matchups between Trump and other top Democratic contenders show:
  • Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont over Trump 50 - 43 percent;
  • Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 47 percent to Trump's 44 percent;
  • Trump and Sen. Kamala Harris of California split 45 - 45 percent;
  • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 45 percent to Trump's 44 percent;
  • Trump at 46 percent to 44 percent for former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of Texas.
 
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