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Incumbency has tended not to apply to parties, only to persons, and it's more common (I think; can't be bothered to check the longer record right now) to see the opposition party become the ruling party following a two-term president.

There's a definite, but smaller, incumbency advantage for being from the incumbent party in American elections broadly.

Fatigue at the presidential level is a hypothesized countervailing force to explain the result you're pointing to. Going back a bit, Truman held the position he inherited, and then it was Eisenhower (switch), Kennedy (switch), LBJ holding the inherited position, Nixon (switch), Ford holding, Carter (switch), which is consistent with what you're saying.
 
The incumbency advantage is massive, to be sure. It's an incomplete explanation, though, as often the incumbent is term-limited. (It doesn't deal well with the case of LBJ in 1968 either.)

The incumbency advantage could explain Dole and Romney losing, but doesn't explain McCain and HRC. In both cases, they were members of the incumbent party. You could explain McCain's loss through the economic argument, but not HRC's. Similarly, you can explain Mondale losing to incumbency advantage, but not Gore. There has to be more going on.
Tbf both Gore and HRC won the popular vote so electoral college does throw a bit of a wrench into the analysis. We’ll never know but interesting to speculate if Bill Clinton and Obama had been on the respective tickets whether there would have been a different result, I suspect so, but that then goes to your point about quality of candidates as much as it does incumbency.
 
There's a definite, but smaller, incumbency advantage for being from the incumbent party in American elections broadly.

Fatigue at the presidential level is a hypothesized countervailing force to explain the result you're pointing to. Going back a bit, Truman held the position he inherited, and then it was Eisenhower (switch), Kennedy (switch), LBJ holding the inherited position, Nixon (switch), Ford holding, Carter (switch), which is consistent with what you're saying.
Right. George HW Bush is the single instance in the past 70 years of a party holding the presidency for three terms. That's what I mean by saying that parties don't tend to enjoy an incumbency advantage from one incumbent to the next.
 
Right. George HW Bush is the single instance in the past 70 years of a party holding the presidency for three terms. That's what I mean by saying that parties don't tend to enjoy an incumbency advantage from one incumbent to the next.

Across a very small dataset, and as @LinekersLegs points out Gore and HRC won the popular vote. I tend to think that the broader elections dataset is more informative with respect to whether sharing party ID with the current office holder generally confers a small advantage, though you are entirely within your rights to argue that the presidency is it's own animal and disagree. Plenty of scholars take exactly that position on the grounds of the differences in the nature of the job and its visibility, the unique nature of the win condition (the Electoral College) or both.

I try to treat the small dataset problem like this: I'm reluctant to make inferences based on what appear to be clear trends in the small dataset when those inferences go against conclusions drawn from better data, and so I'm reluctant to conclude that Gore and HRC lost due to fatigue when their flaws as candidates are so evident. You could also argue that Nixon was a flawed candidate that was competitive in 1960 solely due to Eisenhower's coattails (and that won the office despite his flaws because Vietnam rendered a Democrat unelectable in 1968), both of which argue against fatigue as the explanation and for other factors being determinative.

Presidential elections are a messy area of study with comparatively little scholarly agreement because we so infrequently get information that allows us to update our priors, which in turn means that a lot of hypotheses remain sustainable over time.
 
Tbf both Gore and HRC won the popular vote so electoral college does throw a bit of a wrench into the analysis. We’ll never know but interesting to speculate if Bill Clinton and Obama had been on the respective tickets whether there would have been a different result, I suspect so, but that then goes to your point about quality of candidates as much as it does incumbency.
I'm sure some will disagree, but I'd tend to say that had Obama been on the ticket in '16, he'd have won roughly 57 states.

There's good reason Trump bottled a 2012 run, and Obama's approval rating was significantly higher by '16.
 
Across a very small dataset, and as @LinekersLegs points out Gore and HRC won the popular vote. I tend to think that the broader elections dataset is more informative with respect to whether sharing party ID with the current office holder generally confers a small advantage, though you are entirely within your rights to argue that the presidency is it's own animal and disagree. Plenty of scholars take exactly that position on the grounds of the differences in the nature of the job and its visibility, the unique nature of the win condition (the Electoral College) or both.

I try to treat the small dataset problem like this: I'm reluctant to make inferences based on what appear to be clear trends in the small dataset when those inferences go against conclusions drawn from better data, and so I'm reluctant to conclude that Gore and HRC lost due to fatigue when their flaws as candidates are so evident. You could also argue that Nixon was a flawed candidate that was competitive in 1960 solely due to Eisenhower's coattails (and that won the office despite his flaws because Vietnam rendered a Democrat unelectable in 1968), both of which argue against fatigue as the explanation and for other factors being determinative.

Presidential elections are a messy area of study with comparatively little scholarly agreement because we so infrequently get information that allows us to update our priors, which in turn means that a lot of hypotheses remain sustainable over time.
I see. You're discussing a much more involved effort at modeling while I'm being anecdotal and commonsensical [sic].

Hello, my name is sdk and I'm from the Humanities.
 
It's Bernie. It has to be Bernie. Even if he doesn't get over 50%, and I think he will as he has a lot of momentum, he's going to be so far above everyone that not picking him would be a disaster. Everyone buckle up for one of the wildest elections we will ever see. I hope it isn't the last.
 
Warren isn't sure of who she is.

Sanders supports socialist dictators and

Biden has already forgotten what he is in s race for.

Is this really the best of what the Democrats can put forward at as time they say is the most critical in the history of the country.

If so, maybe it's not all doom and gloom.
 
always felt Mark Ruffalo is a decent human being, kudos for coming out and backing Sanders.

Love his act at Shutter Island.
 
always felt Mark Ruffalo is a decent human being, kudos for coming out and backing Sanders.

Love his act at Shutter Island.

The decent human train is full speed and is not stopping. Centrists and people further right like warren supporters can absolve themselves and run along the train match it’s speed and jump aboard.
 
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