Martin Alvito
Player Valuation: £50m
Incumbency has tended not to apply to parties, only to persons, and it's more common (I think; can't be bothered to check the longer record right now) to see the opposition party become the ruling party following a two-term president.
There's a definite, but smaller, incumbency advantage for being from the incumbent party in American elections broadly.
Fatigue at the presidential level is a hypothesized countervailing force to explain the result you're pointing to. Going back a bit, Truman held the position he inherited, and then it was Eisenhower (switch), Kennedy (switch), LBJ holding the inherited position, Nixon (switch), Ford holding, Carter (switch), which is consistent with what you're saying.
