Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary
- Thread starter abelard
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Death
I'll take down dat coal powered MG, I tel u Hwat
lol
You're funny.
You must be a proud democrat. For the first time in history a democrat or a republican has won the popular vote in all 3 early states.
#terrified
Death
I'll take down dat coal powered MG, I tel u Hwat
but..but if they add up all the moderate votes then.. oh...erm, RUSSIA!!!
BirkenheadBlue
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I mean, he’s not a Democrat, but if he carries it on into the General I’ll be absolutely delighted.
If he runs roughshod over the Primary then gets stuffed in the General then... less so. THAT is the only thing I’m terrified of with regards to Sanders
It's good to have friends in high places. Thanks, mate.
I still await the "draft Clinton" movement sometime between now and the end of the convention, particularly if Bloomberg's momentum continues on its current trajectory. The Bush/Cheney NeverTrumpers are an endless source of amusement this morning, as they seem to be the most wounded by current events.
It would take a heart of stone not to laugh. What happens when Trump goes to India and orders a well-done steak for dinner? Stay tuned.
Sanders is an independent
sdk
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If Sanders wins the nomination but loses the election, is there any chance at all that you'll come away thinking that's just the way the voting went and no conspiracy ensured the result?
Martin Alvito
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Fielding a defeated candidate from the last contested primary hasn't worked for anyone since Reagan. Romney, HRC, McCain and Dole all lost. This is suggestive that the previous electoral loss may indicate a flawed candidate. Being the heir apparent hasn't worked out well either. Gore (sitting VP) and Mondale (last VP) also lost, with Bush 41 winning a single term on Reagan's coattails.
Fresh faces have done better, with Bill Clinton, Bush 43, Obama and Trump winning but Dukakis and Kerry losing.
Small sample size to be sure, but if you're going to contest findings about presidential politics on those grounds you're going to end up concluding that we can't know much of anything.
Death
I'll take down dat coal powered MG, I tel u Hwat
Powning the Democrats in their own primary and he’s not even registered as a democrat?
What
a
man
Tbh the theory “president wins reelection unless economy is awful” is a pretty plausible explanation given the limited data set
Martin Alvito
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The incumbency advantage is massive, to be sure. It's an incomplete explanation, though, as often the incumbent is term-limited. (It doesn't deal well with the case of LBJ in 1968 either.)
The incumbency advantage could explain Dole and Romney losing, but doesn't explain McCain and HRC. In both cases, they were members of the incumbent party. You could explain McCain's loss through the economic argument, but not HRC's. Similarly, you can explain Mondale losing to incumbency advantage, but not Gore. There has to be more going on.
sdk
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Incumbency has tended not to apply to parties, only to persons, and it's more common (I think; can't be bothered to check the longer record right now) to see the opposition party become the ruling party following a two-term president.
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