Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary

[LinekersLegs]

Those 45-65 age group and moderate/conservatives numbers are good wrt general as think they were a weakness in Iowa/NH.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Looks like the moderate/conservative improvement from earlier two was because Nevada is a more diverse state.


Wonder if the 45-65 shift is for a similar reason.

 

[abelard]

Impressive identification and turnout operation by the Sanders campaign.

Tbh the Buttigieg number is pretty decent too even if it doesn’t seem to have been enough to have gained him a great deal of delegates. Iirc he was targeting rural voters again, will be interesting to see the makeup of those first time attendee for each of the candidates.

It makes sense, as the formula gives them such disproportionate weight.

Sanders, from what I understand, focused at least as much if not more on Nevada and the Super Tuesday states as he did on Iowa and NH, whereas Buttigieg and Warren had to go all in on Iowa/NH.

What Bernie Sanders Is Doing Differently to Win Over Latino Voters

After faring poorly with Latinos in 2016, Tío Bernie created an entirely new approach for 2020.

www.newyorker.com

The story of the primary is that while Gen X #resistance libs spent the past four years on twitter consoling themselves by mocking Trump's hair, indulging childish conspiracy revelries about Russia, and sneering at Sanders' 'young people in the streets', the Sanders team has quietly (because the media ignored it), painstakingly and methodically organised the nationwide grassroots coalition that is the only thing capable of saving Dems who loathe Sanders from Trump.

The Democratic Party is doing its best to alienate if not purge by far its most organised and dedicated members, but it is quickly running out of time. It is not implausible that it's all but wrapped up after Super Tuesday.

 

[abelard]

Looks like the moderate/conservative improvement from earlier two was because Nevada is a more diverse state.


Wonder if the 45-65 shift is for a similar reason.

And I imagine that's now a very shaky +11 for Biden.

Interesting to ponder how different the coverage would be if Harry Reid had his way and Nevada went first.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Those 45-65 age group and moderate/conservatives numbers are good wrt general as think they were a weakness in Iowa/NH.

Very good numbers for Bernie.

Bizarre tweet that someone posted last page saying "good luck getting Dems to turn out for Bernie"... getting Dems to turn out is not/was never going to be the challenge. The primaries were never likely to be the problem for him. Seems to be a weird narrative that only exists in the head of the most paranoid Sanders' supporters that everyone is desperate for him to fail... Simply isn't the case.

Democrats are terrified (and rightly so) of another 4 years of Trump... 4 years in which he'll be even LESS bound by convention, norms, ethics and the law than he has been since 2016. They have concerns over Bernie's ability to appeal to the wider coalition that will need to be built in order to win a General. Are those concerns well founded? Only time will tell, but they're by no means entirely unreasonable. Is there probably a little ill feeling from some, stoked by a section of his support who seem to delight in lashing out at every Democratic candidate/institution/individual that happens to even hint at questioning whether Bernie is anything less than the second coming, or has the temerity to think that perhaps THEY might be a better bet? I'd imagine there's a bit of that too.

He's odds on to be the nominee, so fingers crossed those concerns WILL be unfounded... and who knows, once he IS the nominee, maybe his supporters will spend a little less time attacking those with whose idealogy their own candidate has far more in common than what separates them.*

(* - Apart from Bloomberg. If you can find the pulped remains of him that Warren left behind, feel free to attack them)

 

[abelard]

Those 45-65 age group and moderate/conservatives numbers are good wrt general as think they were a weakness in Iowa/NH.

I suspect this is an overlooked dynamic in NH - American corporate media is always reluctant to discuss economic inequality and class.

New Hampshire is an unusual state (I lived there for a year). In many ways it resembles England more than a typical US state, in that the towns and city (if you can call it that) are pretty shabby and post-industrial - ground zero for the opioid crisis. The countryside on the other hand, contains both truly desperate poverty and pockets of enormous wealth from Boston and New York retirees.

Buttigieg did well in older Boston suburbs and rich retirement villages, and Sanders did well in younger Boston suburbs and left behind towns and rural districts.

 

[abelard]

Seems to be a weird narrative that only exists in the head of the most paranoid Sanders' supporters that everyone is desperate for him to fail... Simply isn't the case.

Whereas other candidates' supporters tend to like the Democratic Party, Sanders' supporters tend to understand the Democratic Party.

Anyhow, tough night I imagine, but the race isn't over yet.

 

[riddick]

So that's two general election cycles in a row that Russia have attempted interference to help Sanders in his campaigns...

Now it made sense in 2016... they were very much on an "anyone but Clinton" tip, with a strong preference for Trump...

This year, a little less so.

There's two possibilities I suppose. One is that they believe a Sanders administration would be more favourable to them and more in line with the aims than any of the other Dems... The other is that by their best calculation, Sanders is the least likely to defeat Trump. Neither is a particularly great look for Bernie. I dearly hope they're wrong on both counts.

Orrrrrrrrr maybe that makes the "LOOK! Russia FIXED the election for BERNIE!" from Trump after he loses?

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Whereas other candidates' supporters tend to like the Democratic Party, Sanders' supporters tend to understand the Democratic Party.

Anyhow, tough night I imagine, but the race isn't over yet.

I’ll leave the baity first part.

Tough night for who? I’m going to assume you don’t mean me, since out of a field of 23 (25? 29? 150? I forget how many we got up to in the end) he’d be my 2nd choice for who’d make the best President.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

Orrrrrrrrr maybe that makes the "LOOK! Russia FIXED the election for BERNIE!" from Trump after he loses?

That... would be a weird reason

 

[riddick]

That... would be a weird reason

As if anything in this day/age is normal? Trump is going to lose hte election most likely and claim voter/election fraud. Who the hell knows where it goes from there.

 

[BirkenheadBlue]

As if anything in this day/age is normal? Trump is going to lose hte election most likely and claim voter/election fraud. Who the hell knows where it goes from there.

Unfortunately that’s far from the most likely outcome.

And before my learned friend wades in, that’s for the most part regardless of the nominee.

 

[LinekersLegs]

while Gen X #resistance libs spent the past four years on twitter consoling themselves by mocking Trump's hair, indulging childish conspiracy revelries about Russia, and sneering at Sanders' 'young people in the streets',

I’m a bit disappointed that you missed including a “drowning sorrows in Chardonnay“ dig, I’d have thought that was a layup.

And I imagine that's now a very shaky +11 for Biden.

Interesting to ponder how different the coverage would be if Harry Reid had his way and Nevada went first.

I really hope that the 2024 primary season is changed, having Iowa and New Hampshire out on their own is anachronistic given the diversity of democratic voters. Hopefully less caucuses as well although Nevada does thankfully seem to have been better run than Iowa (not hard!)

Thanks for the background on New Hampshire, confess I have never been there. Florida is going to be an interesting state to see how Bernie does - very diverse state but lots of rich retirement villages.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[riddick]

Unfortunately that’s far from the most likely outcome.

And before my learned friend wades in, that’s for the most part regardless of the nominee.

Ok, then let me clarify. Trump will lose the popular vote. That's a big given. IN THEORY he SHOULD lose the stupid AF Electoral College as well but, should he lose, he is going to cry election interference even tho he never complained about it nor did the Senate majority leader do a single thing to protect the integrity of the election.