Current Affairs 2017 General Election

[Jib in lad]

Fallon looks crushed lovely stuff.

 

[jal123]

TOWN

 

[Ballymoney1]

The DUP could now be the king makers. Lord help us all

 

[Brennan]

If the Tories end up leading a coalition through Brexit I can see a Corbyn win in 2022.

 

[tsubaki]

McDonnell has exactly the same look of disbelief on his face that I had when Savanah Leaf followed me into Vauxhall Tescos this evening.

I was hoping that was an omen.

 

[TheBlueGibbon]

Before anyone gets to excited by the exit poll you should all think back to Brexit and Trump. Just wait a while before you celebrate or despair.

True, but this summary from the Guardian is intriguing.
an you trust exit polls?
The short answer is, yes and no.

Broadcasters have been using exit polls since at last 1974 and it is true that in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s there were were some horrific misses. Here are the figures, showing have far the gap was between the predicted majority of the winning part and the actual majority.

October 1974

ITN: Wrong by 12

BBC: Wrong by 132

1979

ITN: Wrong by 20

BBC: Wrong by 29

1983

ITN: Wrong by 28

BBC: Wrong by 2

1987

ITN: Wrong by 34

BBC: Wrong by 76

1992

ITN: Wrong by 62

BBC: Wrong by 70

1997

ITN: Wrong by 20

BBC: Wrong by 6

But in the last decade and a half the exit polls have become much more accurate

Here are the figures for 2001

ITN: Wrong by 8

BBC: Wrong by 10

From 2005 onwards there has been a joint exit poll, firstly commissioned for ITN and the BBC, and then, from 2010 onwards, for Sky too. It’s record has been much better.

2005

Wrong by 0. It predicted a Labour majority of 66, which Labour got.

2010

Wrong by 0. It said the Tories would be 19 short of a majority, and they were.

2015

Wrong by 22. It said the Tories would be 10 seats short of a majority, but they got a majority of 12.

 

[Kurt.]

I voted for the labsnplibdems

 

[ToffeeDan]

Oh please no Majority. A big up yours to Murdoch Dacre and - most importantly the asses that gave us Brexit.

 

[Librarian]

hung like a pornstar

 

[AndyC]

Let's not get carried away... the exit polls are only a rough idea.
Don't build hopes up too high, because if they do get a majority, even if only a slim one...

 

[jal123]

ANN WIDDECOMBE LOOKS LIKE A NETHY ROAD BRASS PASS IT ON

 

[jal123]

Let's not get carried away... the exit polls are only a rough idea.
Don't build hopes up too high, because if they do get a majority, even if only a slim one...

Don't do this to me

 

[Sapie88]

Wise words from a hero to us all.

 

[mmmmsnouts]

If this actually does come off for Labour, I hope you Brits will look favorably upon us Americans who are suffering to show you what a complete shower right-wing rule can be... and let us come and live there.

 

[Old Blue 2]

Before anyone gets to excited by the exit poll you should all think back to Brexit and Trump. Just wait a while before you celebrate or despair.

Not a question of despair, I think. The Brexit exit (see what I did there...?) was touting a Remain vote. I went to bed believing Remain would carry the day only to wake up about 8 to find that all the predictions had been turned on their heads.

I have a sneaky feeling that Labour will do even better than the exit poll suggests...