Not long to go now.. and thank the Lord. The last 7 weeks have been like pulling teeth. It really has been the most dire, gutless and depressing campaign that I can ever recall.
Some cliff notes:
- Nobody has really talked about the economy. WTF? It's the Economy, stupid.
- The Tories have run the most inept campaign in recent history. May wanted this to become a mandate for Brexit, but general elections are always about more than a single issue, they are broadly about which party you think is most competent to run the country over the next 5 years while also accounting for personal beliefs and ideology.
- The campaign has been far too long. It has dragged, and putting a single issue at the heart of your election message only reinforces that feeling.
- YouGov's model is so far wrong.. they are going to be left looking like a$$holes by Friday morning. I've been through every single marginal seat and the thought that Labour will be winning the majority of these is incredulous. Yougov's model has basically assigned the Youth vote something like a 85% turnout based on the response to "how likely are you to vote" question. To put this into perspective, Recent national polls had youth turnout at 44% (2010), 45% (2015), 43% (2016).
- That said, Labour have undoubtedly made inroads in recent weeks.
- All this hope being placed in Tactical Voting is absolutely laughable. Here's some news: Tactical voting didn't suddenly become a thing yesterday. The ironic thing is that the Tories have just a good a base to gain from TV when you factor in the likely collapse in the UKIP vote. UKIP aren't even standing in about 200 seats which are the most vulnerable to swing Tory.
- Tories should gain more seats than a uniform national swing model predicts because of the Brexit effect. Outside of London, 400 seats voted to leave. Do you really think that they will be trusting a Lab/LD/SNP alliance to negotiate on their behalf?
Personally, I don't know if a narrow loss is better or worse for Labour. If they lose narrowly (say similar to 1992) it will just mean that they will double down and continue to be dominated by the Loony Left for the next parliament. That just won't work as a path back to power imo. As well as Corbyn has done this campaign, everyone gets sick of the same old faces after a few years and his stock is probably at a peak right now. I heard it well put that "The British electorate don't like to be asked twice.." in reference to Kinnock losing 2 successive elections, and I think its true. If you lose one election it is fundamentally because the electorate have rejected you, and asking them to vote for you again next time around is not going to have a different outcome.