Current Affairs 2017 General Election

2017 general election

  • Lib Dems

    Votes: 24 6.5%
  • Labour

    Votes: 264 71.0%
  • Tories

    Votes: 41 11.0%
  • Cheese on the ballot paper

    Votes: 35 9.4%
  • SNP

    Votes: 4 1.1%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 4 1.1%

  • Total voters
    372
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It wouldn't be him renewing Trident, though. The will of Parliament is clearly that it be renewed as a deterrent system, which - up to this point - it has done.

What he should be making clear to people is that is all it does - and if we ever launched it it wouldn't be because of a terrorist detonated nuke in London, or in order to "defend" us, it would be because the world was about to end.

If he wouldn't push the button under even the most unimaginably bad situation then it's no longer a deterrent and he should spend the cash elsewhere. And he should be open with parliament on that (if elevted) so they knew the score.
 
It should be important. But we aren't under PR so it might not be. If you pile on votes in your areas of strength you get no gains under this system.

I also don't see a huge tory landslide. I see them getting a modest increase to a majority of somewhere in the region of 50-60. Marginals will be the key in this election just like every other election.

I'm not a fan of FPTP in terms of its fairness, but it adds interest and excitement and unpredictability which you wouldn't get as much of under a proportional system.
My point was that a lot of Labour's seats are majorities of under 9,000. So 'piling on the votes' there is a good thing.
 
Good point, dave. It may also be the case of those in the 5 years or so approaching 65 who've looked at things they (the Tories) advocate and are now having second thoughts...
I agree mate.

The Tories have unloosened the fixing bolts on their wagon that contains the grey vote. They did so because they thought this election was a breeze and they could then carry out a mandate to cut away at the over-65 standard of living and still be able to say they told no lies.


They're in a massive bind of their own making.
 
My point was that a lot of Labour's seats are majorities of under 9,000. So 'piling on the votes' there is a good thing.

It can be a good thing of course. But it's all about the key seats. The Midlands, the rural northern seats and Scotland. If they pile on votes in London, Liverpool, Manchester etc but shed them in the marginal middle England areas then they will get a net loss. It's certainly going to be interesting anyway.
 
If he wouldn't push the button under even the most unimaginably bad situation then it's no longer a deterrent and he should spend the cash elsewhere. And he should be open with parliament on that (if elevted) so they knew the score.

Tim - there isn't really a button for him to push.

If that scenario happened, the likelihood is that the sub we have on continuous patrol would be unable to get the message until it was all over. They'd periodically (edit) try to check in, work through their list of what to look for if the worst had happened, and then open the letter he left them. They would then launch all their missiles, after hours of readying them (depending on if it was a sudden attack). They'd then be left to float around the world until they could find a safe harbour, or the food ran out, knowing that everyone they cared about was gone.
 
Some thoughts on this discussion about a UK nuclear deterrent.

It hasn't stopped the mainland attacks in this country (and advocates would say its intent was never to do so in the first place - fair enough).

As far as global military politics go, we are now small fry in the big scale of things. We are at the behest of the USA, pure and simple. The most likely 'Western' country to be 'nuclear attacked' is the USA, and we will be but a small part of their retaliation. We will be blasted off the face of the planet if it erupts, being the major supporter of the USA. Given that we are simply lackeys of the US military machine, I can't see the point of having nuclear weapons on some remote submarine(s) in water in the middle of nowhere. If the merde hits the fan, we are toast anyway...
 
Not looked at the papers today but I imagine some are trying to bury Corbyn over the nuclear issue on QT last night. The fact of the matter is that once you've got someone willing to push that button then they're already mad enough and isolated from reality enough not to care about the deterrent.

All this talk of the youth vote is confusing me. A lot of the young people round ours are Brexit voting scruffs in North Face jackets who assumed that they'd somehow be wealthier and the police will stop being interested in their low level crime shenanigans once they kicked all the Muslims and Poles out of the country the day after the vote. I should probably move house but it's dead cheap for a good size gaff round here.
 
Tim - there isn't really a button for him to push.

If that scenario happened, the likelihood is that the sub we have on continuous patrol would be unable to get the message until it was all over. They'd periodically (edit) try to check in, work through their list of what to look for if the worst had happened, and then open the letter he left them. They would then launch all their missiles, after hours of readying them (depending on if it was a sudden attack). They'd then be left to float around the world until they could find a safe harbour, or the food ran out, knowing that everyone they cared about was gone.

I think nuclear deterrent is a massive factor in the relative peace in europe since 45.

Corbyn doesn't. The world knows he doesn't. The world knows Corbyn hates nuclear deterrent. So it's actually in effect a redundant deterrent as the world knows he wouldn't ever respond. So the question is why not spend the money elsewhere if that's how he feels? He's entitled to hate nuclear. Frig no one should like nuclear, even if we think it's a necessary evil. But he may as well not bother renewing it and pump the money elsewhere given his views. That's my criticism. Not that he would never retaliate.
 
It can be a good thing of course. But it's all about the key seats. The Midlands, the rural northern seats and Scotland. If they pile on votes in London, Liverpool, Manchester etc but shed them in the marginal middle England areas then they will get a net loss. It's certainly going to be interesting anyway.
My opinion is that the LP are going to take a lot of votes in the north and midlands and seats with it.

YouGov predicting hung parliament territory after their CON 42%-LAB 38% poll today.

I dont think so. The Tories can still get a decent majority but it''ll be seen as failure.

The LP left comes out of this campaign as the big winners, IMO. They'll have reinforced their right to go with a left agenda in the LP as they will have avoided a landslide thumping that a centre-left/right candidate of Labours would have suffered.
 
Bizarre sub-plot from the ComRes poll earlier in the week. One of the questions was: "Have you decided who you will vote for?" 70% said yes, 21% said no and 9% said don't know. How can you not know whether you have decided or not? Some weird people out there.
 
I think nuclear deterrent is a massive factor in the relative peace in europe since 45.

Corbyn doesn't. The world knows he doesn't. The world knows Corbyn hates nuclear deterrent. So it's actually in effect a redundant deterrent as the world knows he wouldn't ever respond. So the question is why not spend the money elsewhere if that's how he feels? He's entitled to hate nuclear. Frig no one should like nuclear, even if we think it's a necessary evil. But he may as well not bother renewing it and pump the money elsewhere given his views. That's my criticism. Not that he would never retaliate.

That is a daft argument, though.

The deterrent exists, the majority (vast majority) of Parliament support it and its renewal, as does his party. The system doesn't rely on him "pushing the button", indeed its specifically designed to minimize the involvement of the political leadership (unlike the American system, which requires explicit authority to launch). Whether or not he would launch is an utter irrelevance as long as the system exists in the form that it is in, so to criticize him for things that would never happen is bizarre.
 
I agree mate.

The Tories have unloosened the fixing bolts on their wagon that contains the grey vote. They did so because they thought this election was a breeze and they could then carry out a mandate to cut away at the over-65 standard of living and still be able to say they told no lies.


They're in a massive bind of their own making.


Quite agree. And I think their misjudgement is on two fronts.

First: Not realising the voting base in the early part of the century and in the 2010 election has moved on a decade or so in age, and a certain proportion are now around the 60 mark. To alienate that part of their voting pool is a risk that I do not think they have taken into account.

Second: The grey-haired old gets like me are now a lot more computer-savvy than we were a decade or so ago. Not only do we hear views on the TV, but we can tap in a whole raft of additional information on the internet. Now cynical old sods of my generation, myself included, can see politicians and their views a whole lot clearer, and ALSO, via forums that hold discussions such as this one, glean a lot more information. This is also an unknown variable in the forthcoming election.

It will be most interesting next week - God give me the strength to stay up as long as I can on Thursday night/Friday morning to see the results roll in! I believe it will be closer than many suggest...
 
Bizarre sub-plot from the ComRes poll earlier in the week. One of the questions was: "Have you decided who you will vote for?" 70% said yes, 21% said no and 9% said don't know. How can you not know whether you have decided or not? Some weird people out there.

It isn't that unusual - of all the people at our work, only a couple of people have explicitly said who they are going to vote for.
 
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