Current Affairs 2017 General Election

[Connor]

The only thing I would say Connor, is that Labour already hold 49 out of the 50 youngest seats in terms of youngest age demographics. The rogue one being Chester. So even if they do turn out in even bigger numbers, it's quite possible it's not going to be in the right areas. I've sensed Labour are piling on votes in the big cities where they are already miles ahead, but shipping votes everywhere else, which is probably what will ensure they don't win.

TT, they're going after other seats too yenno. Mainly those where Uni students can use their vote to overthrow a small Tory/formerly Lib Dem majority.

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats

 

[Clint Planet]

Yeah I particularly liked how he broke down my post point by point Into said essay...

More diagrams would have been nice.

 

[ToffeeTim]

TT, they're going after other seats too yenno. Mainly those where Uni students can use their vote to overthrow a small Tory/formerly Lib Dem majority.

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/exclusive-newly-registered-voters-focused-on-student-seats

Sorry mate, but that article reinforced my belief, Labour already hold almost everyone of those seats mentioned. The Croydon and Leeds seat (L Dems one) are the only that look possible gains. It's marginals in the north, south west, and midlands, and also Scotland of course, which are where general elections are decided, not student seats.

Don't forget too that lots of students are registered in 2 seats, so lots could well be back in their home seat for the summer, given the term is over in most places. I see a lot of flaws in the student vote argument, but very happy to be proven wrong.

 

[ashwuk76]

More diagrams would have been nice.

Yeah with projected losses on first and second strikes...

I do wonder if anyone saw the original war games.. . "The only winning move is not to play"

 

[Connor]

Sorry mate, but that article reinforced my belief, Labour already hold almost everyone of those seats mentioned. The Croydon and Leeds seat (L Dems one) are the only that look possible gains. It's marginals in the north, south west, and midlands, and also Scotland of course, which are where general elections are decided, not student seats.

Don't forget too that lots of students are registered in 2 seats, so lots could well be back in their home seat for the summer, given the term is over in most places. I see a lot of flaws in the student vote argument, but very happy to be proven wrong.

Once again TT, I believe and hope you're wrong.

 

[ToffeeTim]

Once again TT, I believe and hope you're wrong.

I've no issue being wrong at all mate. I'm just looking forward to the actual results cause the numbers is the bit I enjoy. And I don't particularly like either leader. Both very poor imo. So not really fussed what way it goes. Just giving my preds.

 

[ToffeeTim]

 

[zzr45]

When you get to a certain age you don't want to waste a single one!

 

[davek]

By the time today's youngsters decide to bother to turn up and vote they'll be middle aged Tories. That's how life progresses, at least for many.

IMO the young don't vote because they haven't learnt the life lesson... that actions are far more important than words. Being ideological and opinionated is all well and good, but its also hypocritical if you can't actually be bothered to go to the voting booth to cast your vote and then blame those who did for wrecking the country because they have actually learnt some important life lessons. Youth is wasted on the young.

Well we'll find put if they're blowhards in 5 days time. The referendum taught them a harsh lesson. Many will, I believe, have heeded it.

Much more interesting though is how many over 65s desert the Tories and dont vote.

 

[davek]

The only thing I would say Connor, is that Labour already hold 49 out of the 50 youngest seats in terms of youngest age demographics. The rogue one being Chester. So even if they do turn out in even bigger numbers, it's quite possible it's not going to be in the right areas. I've sensed Labour are piling on votes in the big cities where they are already miles ahead, but shipping votes everywhere else, which is probably what will ensure they don't win.

...and that's important isn't it? You state that as if it means nothing when in reality they are all seats depriving the Tories of the landslide they crave and will fail to achieve.

 

[tsubaki]

You wouldn't buy a car if you didn't plan to drive it.

No, but you wouldn't buy a car if you knew driving it guaranteed your death.

 

[ToffeeTim]

...and that's important isn't it? You state that as if it means nothing when in reality they are all seats depriving the Tories of the landslide they crave and will fail to achieve.

It should be important. But we aren't under PR so it might not be. If you pile on votes in your areas of strength you get no gains under this system.

I also don't see a huge tory landslide. I see them getting a modest increase to a majority of somewhere in the region of 50-60. Marginals will be the key in this election just like every other election.

I'm not a fan of FPTP in terms of its fairness, but it adds interest and excitement and unpredictability which you wouldn't get as much of under a proportional system.

 

[ToffeeTim]

No, but you wouldn't buy a car if you knew driving it guaranteed your death.

My point is that if he is so against nuclear, then I'd have more respect if he was open in wanting to scrap it. There's no point him renewing trident if he wouldn't even hit back in the scenario of an unprovoked attack. So he may as well spend the cash elsewhere.

I don't agree with that at all but at least it makes economic and even just rational sense.

 

[Old Blue 2]

Much more interesting though is how many over 65s desert the Tories and dont vote.

Good point, dave. It may also be the case of those in the 5 years or so approaching 65 who've looked at things they (the Tories) advocate and are now having second thoughts...

 

[tsubaki]

My point is that if he is so against nuclear, then I'd have more respect if he was open in wanting to scrap it. There's no point him renewing trident if he wouldn't even hit back in the scenario of an unprovoked attack. So he may as well spend the cash elsewhere.

I don't agree with that at all but at least it makes economic and even just rational sense.

It wouldn't be him renewing Trident, though. The will of Parliament is clearly that it be renewed as a deterrent system, which - up to this point - it has done.

What he should be making clear to people is that is all it does - and if we ever launched it it wouldn't be because of a terrorist detonated nuke in London, or in order to "defend" us, it would be because the world was about to end.