The only way labour can hit 40% is with a huge recovery of their Scottish vote, and that is why I am very sceptical. Has anyone detected a labour surge up there?
Current Affairs 2017 General Election
- Thread starter neil999
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evilwebby
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Been looking at the Yougov model.. I think it's wildly overestimating Labour support.
Taking a look at my own constituency (Putney).
2015 result:
Con 53.8%
Lab 30%
Yougov's model puts the 2017 result midpoints as
Con 46%
Lab 36%
So they are predicting a 6.9% swing from Con to Lab in a strong Tory seat (albeit one that voted Remain).
Also, I have to say that I think the Tories have been working very hard in this seat and other neighbouring seats, I've seen plenty of campaign material from them, but not a jot from Labour. It's usually one of the first London seats to declare, so will be interesting to watch the numbers when they come in.
Taking a look at my own constituency (Putney).
2015 result:
Con 53.8%
Lab 30%
Yougov's model puts the 2017 result midpoints as
Con 46%
Lab 36%
So they are predicting a 6.9% swing from Con to Lab in a strong Tory seat (albeit one that voted Remain).
Also, I have to say that I think the Tories have been working very hard in this seat and other neighbouring seats, I've seen plenty of campaign material from them, but not a jot from Labour. It's usually one of the first London seats to declare, so will be interesting to watch the numbers when they come in.
orchard
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Again, why just single jc out when the con's want to "change society to [an even greater] extent" ?
tsubaki
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It isn't. 35% of the national electorate at the last election didn't vote, which goes up to 45% among youth voters (and that may have been a recent record high for youth turnout). To get to 40% would require lots of those people to vote, which is something that is not entirely implausible given that Labour have deliberately targeted them.
Also, the Scottish vote isn't that big anyway - if you added every single SNP vote in 2015 to every single Labour vote, it would only represent 7.5% of the national electorate. Of course they are disproportionately influential in terms of seats (given that would represent 59 seats, or around 9% of the number of seats in Parliament), but in terms of vote-share it isn't that much.
Just most of the blokes on here are Labour people, so it's probably natural that they're the party discussed the most. The Tories intentions were well publicised in the wake of Brexit and the new leadership, and it's hard to find much in those intentions that is admirable, whether on social or economic terms. It seems whoever wins the country will be lurching in an illiberal way.
evilwebby
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Could happen, but almost certainly won't. They'll just virtue signal from their social media feeds and then F"£$ off to a few music festivals over the summer to get over it.
Old Blue 2
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Because you are Liberal (capital 'L' deliberate), and logically, you would suggest anything that is not of the Liberal Party persuasion would be an illiberal way.
Flawed reasoning 100%, Bruce, I have to say...
tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
It is certainly a high risk strategy, but there are reasons to suggest it might happen.
For a start, what is on offer (both in terms of tuition fees, housing and removing zero hour / gig labour) is substantially aimed at and would benefit them, which is not something we have really seen on this scale before. Secondly I think most people would recognize that, if he loses, they will never be offered this type of thing again. Thirdly, there were large numbers of people registering to vote since the election was called, apparently 40% of whom on each day were "young" voters, and including 250,000 on the last day of registering alone. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, there is the movement in the polls - which, though it varies in amount, is consistently going one way. If people think he can do it, that their vote matters, they are more likely to vote for him.
Of course, they now have to actually vote. As I said, at the start, its a high risk (at least according to the modern understanding of how things work in politics) strategy but to do it - to deliberately look to bring in people who have felt excluded from modern politics - is something that should be applauded.
The Liberal Democrats are a long way from being truly liberal (sadly), but yes, I will always oppose the kind of centrally managed economies both red and blue want to deliver.
Why do a party polling well below double figures think they have the right to overturn and undermine the will of the British electorate to leave the European Union? Lib Dems are in for a hammerring.....
The Lib Dems won't get good results next week, I know that, but nothing has changed my opinion that Brexit will be an utter disaster, "will of the people" or not.
Clint Planet
Utter Cad.
She was rightly extended sympathy. She is rightly being closely examined as Home Secretary in the run up to an election.
You're not convincing anyone with this angle, Bruce, you Tory apologist, you.
tsubaki
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TBF it is bad form to go after her dad - yes, they did it to Miliband's but to stoop to their level is only ever going to benefit them.
It's not like there aren't enough of her policies that she can be called up on. Going after deceased family members is not good imo.
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