Recent performances have been as bad and are worrying but they definitely aren't typical. Gung ho with defensive mistakes does typify it better but even that was proving to be better than most of what happened last year results wise. Then a handful of games we looked tighter and were still scoring and we've looked to still be tighter but with little confidence since West Ham.Apologies, I actually misread your post so I thought you were making a different point.
It can obviously still be a major indicator though. Your point was about projections, and if your league position is progressively getting worse, and you're making a projection on where you'll be in the future, the projection will show it continuing to get worse. I'm not saying it will, but the idea that it's just as likely we'll get better is clearly flawed. It's based only on a feeling, or blind faith, not on the solid fact that both our league position and our performances have been getting worse over the last few months.
I don't really agree that our performances have been better this season than last. Yes there have been more games when we've looked good going forward, but football is about the balance between attack and defence. Last season we were too slow and negative, earlier this season we were too gung ho and open. It was an improvement as a viewing spectacle, but it didn't make us any better in a football sense. Recent performances have been as bad as anything served up last year.
None of it is giving me any sense of where we'd finish if there was no change in management or improvement in the squad. But this season nearly all the fine margins have gone against us and we've very rarely been outclassed. This is reflected in our goal difference. All that indicates to me we'd improve positionally. Point is whether that's good enough surely. And whether he can or will make the adjustments that take us a step further. And even then, which is the one big thing hanging over him in my opinion, is if we had the right squad playing fluently and solidly, could we still get a better man manager.