Current Affairs Ukraine

[davek]

There is no evolution in this thread.
It contains those against the invasion and trolls

No mate.

It contains those who want a war they have no chance of ever having to get out from behind their keyboards to put their money where their mouths are and those wanting an end to a tragic waste of life.

Thankfully this will be over in new year.

 

[Eidean]

This feller's off his swede. That's not remotely a possibility. He knows they'll never gain NATO membership, and as for foreign boots on the ground in Ukraine before 'NATO membership happens' he's off the charts barking mad.

I think it'll probably take his removal from office before this conflict can be finally settled.

Trump will see him as an obstacle to work around in the short term then engineer his removal from office.

There’s already foreign boots on the ground Dave, remember?

 

[Walken]

This is a bit of a stretch mate.

I don’t think there’s managed accounts on this site.

Exactly what a managed account would say!

 

[Xizor]

There’s already foreign boots on the ground Dave, remember?

Come on, you can't expect Today Dave to know what Yesterday Dave posted.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Out of interest, what would be a managed account?

Never come across that expression before.

A previous good account that's been hacked?

One that's managed by the forum itself?

One managed by bots?

One managed by several people as a multi?

Not pertaining to that poster, just out of curiosity.

@davek

A character designed to cause debate/fume/the odd lol in order to keep things ticking over and stop things becoming dry.

When you see a character out, or beyond the edge there is a good chance it is by design.

 

[davek]

There’s already foreign boots on the ground Dave, remember?

Officially they're not, and not in great numbers.

The clown Zelensky seems to think western nations are going to be allowed to send regiments of soldiers to protect him and his little cabal of kleptocrats in Kyiv who've been party to the deaths of half a million of their own people in the last 3 years.

 

[jaspercabbage]

The foreign boots are the russian ones.

 

[davek]

This is a paper that is apparently informing the Trump administration's policy on ending the war in Ukraine.

Basically, the conclusions reached are that the Ukrainians are not faced with weapon shortages, they're facing an existential threat due to the depletion of their fighting forces (they reckon 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed). The way forward is to get Ukraine to sign up to a deal where they accept no NATO admission for years to come, the loss of territory and the acceptance of no negotiations for their return that uses military force. Reconstruction cash would follow. Russia would get a partial lifting of sanctions and only fully lifted when they do a deal to hand back territory seized...probably post-Putin.

America First, Russia, & Ukraine

Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine was an avoidable crisis that, due to the Biden Administration’s incompetent policies and rejection of the America First approach to national security, has entangled America in an endless war.

americafirstpolicy.com

Relevant part for the peace deal 'on offer':

TIME TO STOP THE KILLING​

Asked during a May 2023 CNN town hall whether he wanted Ukraine to win, President Trump answered, “I want everybody to stop dying. They’re dying. Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying.” Trump added: “I don’t think in terms of winning and losing. I think in terms of getting it settled so we can stop killing all those people.”

When the former president was asked if he thought Putin was a war criminal, he replied, “This should be discussed later, and if you say he’s a war criminal, it’s going to be a lot harder to make a deal later to get this thing stopped.”

In a February 17, 2024 tweet, national security expert and retired Army Colonel Kurt Schlichter observed: “Ukraine is not losing because America hasn’t given it enough shells. Ukraine is losing because there aren’t enough Ukrainians. And I’m on the side of the Ukrainians. I helped train them.”

We agree with President Trump and Colonel Schlichter. America needs a new approach and a comprehensive strategy for the Ukraine War.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, an estimated 400,000 Russian soldiers are currently deployed in Ukraine and control much of Ukraine’s eastern provinces of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson as well as Crimea.^[ii] Russian forces have hardened their defenses along the 600-mile-long front line and have saturated an estimated 30 percent of Ukrainian territory with landmines.^[iii]

Schlichter is right about Ukraine facing a demographic crisis and running out of soldiers. About 200,000 Russian troops have been killed in the war, and 240,000 wounded. The Ukrainian army has suffered about 100,000 dead and up to 120,000 wounded. But Ukraine’s population is much smaller than Russia’s. The population of Ukraine today is estimated at 36.7 million, a significant drop from its February 2022 population of 45 million. Many Ukrainians have fled the conflict. The total population of free Ukraine may be as low as 20 million. On the other hand, Russia’s population is 144 million.^[iv]

Reflecting these developments, CNN reported in November 2023 that training and recruiting Ukrainian troops had become a serious challenge, and the military was facing problems with enforcing mobilization rules.^[v] On April 2, 2024, Zelenskyy signed a law to address the troop shortage by lowering the country’s minimum conscription age for men from 27 to 25. The Ukrainian leader also signed new laws do away with some draft exemptions and create an online registry for recruits.^[vi]

To add to these challenges, prospects for Ukraine’s army in 2024 are not promising. After failing to move the battlelines during its 2023 counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces appeared to be losing ground in early 2024 because of battle fatigue, arms shortages, and what appears to be a new Russian offensive strategy. Although the $61 billion aid package that Congress approved in April 2024 and military aid from the EU might help Ukraine maintain the current battlelines this year, it will do so at the cost of the lives of thousands more Ukrainian soldiers and billions of dollars of military aid. There is little prospect that paying these high costs will allow Ukraine to regain its territory from Russia. Moreover, given the Ukrainian army’s manpower problems and the likelihood of growing opposition in the United States and Europe to providing huge amounts of military aid, the Ukrainian army probably will begin to lose ground over time.

Objections to continuing U.S. logistical support for the Ukraine War are also driven by other factors. The war is drawing down America’s stockpile of advanced weapons, such as HIMARS missiles, that may be needed in other conflicts, especially if China invades Taiwan. Many members of Congress believe the Biden Administration should place a higher priority on stopping the huge influx of illegal immigrants crossing the U.S. southern border, the fentanyl crisis plaguing American communities, and the deterioration of our military instead of spending tens of billions of dollars on weapons for the war in Ukraine.

A prolonged war in Ukraine also risks deepening the alliance between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, which has been strengthened by the conflict. Iran and North Korea continue to supply Russia with the weaponry it needs to wage this war, while China remains a financial partner to Russia to deepen the two nations’ “no limits partnership.”

Many supporters of Biden’s “as long as it takes” approach on the right and left in the United States as well as in Europe contend it is crucial to continue to arm Ukraine because Putin’s invasion is a threat to global stability and democracy. Many claim other rogue states, such as Iran and China, will be emboldened by any outcome of the war that allows Russia to keep Ukrainian territory and does not hold Putin accountable. The trouble with these arguments is that it is too late to avoid the possible consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Sending weapons to an endless stalemate for these reasons is expensive virtue signaling and not a constructive policy to promote peace and global stability.

America First is not isolationist, nor is it a call to retreat America from engagement in the world. An America First approach to national security is, however, characteristically distinct from a foreign policy establishment that often keeps the United States mired in endless wars to the detriment of the country by putting idealistic principles ahead of the interests of the American people. There is a pathway forward in Ukraine in which America can keep its own interests prioritized while also playing a role in bringing the largest war in Europe since World War II to an end. That role must be through decisive, America First leadership where bold diplomacy paves the way to an end-state. What we should not continue to do is to send arms to a stalemate that Ukraine will eventually find difficult to win.

This should start with a formal U.S. policy to bring the war to a conclusion.

Specifically, it would mean a formal U.S. policy to seek a cease-fire and negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict. The United States would continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defenses to ensure Russia will make no further advances and will not attack again after a cease-fire or peace agreement. Future American military aid, however, will require Ukraine to participate in peace talks with Russia.

To convince Putin to join peace talks, President Biden and other NATO leaders should offer to put off NATO membership for Ukraine for an extended period in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace deal with security guarantees.

In their April 2023 Foreign Affairs article, Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan proposed that in exchange for abiding by a cease-fire, a demilitarized zone, and participating in peace talks, Russia could be offered some limited sanctions relief. Ukraine would not be asked to relinquish the goal of regaining all its territory, but it would agree to use diplomacy, not force, with the understanding that this would require a future diplomatic breakthrough which probably will not occur before Putin leaves office. Until that happens, the United States and its allies would pledge to only fully lift sanctions against Russia and normalize relations after it signs a peace agreement acceptable to Ukraine. We also call for placing levies on Russian energy sales to pay for Ukrainian reconstruction.

By enabling Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength while also communicating to Russia the consequences if it fails to abide by future peace talk conditions, the United States could implement a negotiated end-state with terms aligned with U.S. and Ukrainian interests. Part of this negotiated end-state should include provisions in which we establish a long-term security architecture for Ukraine’s defense that focuses on bilateral security defense. Including this in a Russia-Ukraine peace deal offers a path toward long-term peace in the region and a means of preventing future hostilities between the two nations.

Regrettably, we see no prospect that the Biden Administration will do anything to end the Ukraine War and may implement policies to make the conflict worse.

Nevertheless, the above are a few creative ideas for an America First approach to end the war and allow Ukraine to rebuild. President Donald Trump also has a strategy to end the war that he has not fully revealed. We are hopeful there will be a new president in January 2025 to implement these American First ideas to end this devastating conflict.

The Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people will have trouble accepting a negotiated peace that does not give them back all of their territory or, at least for now, hold Russia responsible for the carnage it inflicted on Ukraine. Their supporters will also. But as Donald Trump said at the CNN town hall in 2023, “I want everyone to stop dying.” That’s our view, too. It is a good first step.

***

AUTHOR BIOGRAPHIES​

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Keith Kellogg was the national-security adviser to President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. He is currently the co-chairman of the Center for American Security at the America First Policy Institute.

Fred Fleitz was chief of staff of the National Security Council in the Trump administration and is a former CIA analyst. He is vice-chair of the Center for American Security at the America First Policy Institute.

 

[Xizor]

This is a paper that is apparently informing the Trump administration's policy on ending the war in Ukraine.

Spending a lot of time cruising around MAGA-tinged far right websites these days looking for content to support your views?

Some of the names behind that organisation: Linda McMahon, Larry Kudlow, KellyAnne Conway, Pam Bondi... Paula White-Cain!

Big Socialist Dave getting his opinions directly from billionaires & grifting televangelists, the utter shame of it. Imagine getting taken in by that lot.

 

[COYBL25]

Spending a lot of time cruising around MAGA-tinged far right websites these days looking for content to support your views?

Some of the names behind that organisation: Linda McMahon, Larry Kudlow, KellyAnne Conway, Pam Bondi... Paula White-Cain!

Big Socialist Dave getting his opinions directly from billionaires & grifting televangelists, the utter shame of it. Imagine getting taken in by that lot.

He`s only a socialist when it suits, which isn`t very often these days.

 

[davek]

Spending a lot of time cruising around MAGA-tinged far right websites these days looking for content to support your views?

Some of the names behind that organisation: Linda McMahon, Larry Kudlow, KellyAnne Conway, Pam Bondi... Paula White-Cain!

Big Socialist Dave getting his opinions directly from billionaires & grifting televangelists, the utter shame of it. Imagine getting taken in by that lot.

They're former employees of Trump who's work has and will inform his foreign policy. Where would be the appropriate place to look for clues to the coming peace deal talks?

Put more succinctly: you're ridiculous.

 

[Xizor]

Where would be the appropriate place to look for clues to the coming peace deal talks?

Well appropriate people don't go "looking for clues" at all, only utter sad sacks who get their last remaining jollies from dreams of Russian jackboots pushing Westwards.

 

[davek]

Well appropriate people don't go "looking for clues" at all, only utter sad sacks who get their last remaining jollies from dreams of Russian jackboots pushing Westwards.

There's two types of people in this world: those who look for and want war and strife to satisfy themselves, and those who look to end war and strife and find satisfaction that way.

I'll always be in the latter category.

When this war ends in the next two months or so I'll be thinking of the family of the 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers who have perished and the families of the 13,000 civilians killed so far. I'll offer up a silent prayer that their numbers wont be added to.

That's the 'jollies' I'll get.

You must live with your conscience.

 

[Xizor]

I'll always be in the latter category.

Going to have a quick go at these then? Should be simple enough for a man of such strident principles:

Are there any circumstances at all in which it's acceptable for a sovereign nation or ethnic group to defend itself militarily against outside aggression?

Should a democratically elected government have the right to attempt to quell an armed rebellion?

Indeed, should an oppressed civilian population have the right to depose a tyrannical regime through force of arms?

If it helps, think about Israel being the baddies in each hypothetical scenario.

You must live with your conscience.

I'll always be against tyranny, and give thanks to the brave people who pay the price so that others can enjoy freedoms. Not a stain on mine. Your demands for 'peace' under an iron heel mark you out as someone who should be wrestling with yours, utterly shameful if you don't.

 

[COYBL25]

There's two types of people in this world: those who look for and want war and strife to satisfy themselves, and those who look to end war and strife and find satisfaction that way.

I'll always be in the latter category.

When this war ends in the next two months or so I'll be thinking of the family of the 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers who have perished and the families of the 13,000 civilians killed so far. I'll offer up a silent prayer that their numbers wont be added to.

That's the 'jollies' I'll get.

You must live with your conscience.

Do the hundreds and thousands of dead and maimed Russians not count ?

Your fixation with Ukraine is on a par with your weird and disturbing obsession with Kier Starmer and the Labour Party.