Current Affairs Ukraine

[Drico]

That's a sliver of hope for Ukraine that in the future they can join the bloc.

It's the right thing to do. The Ukrainians, and the other potential members, deserve the chance to join. Why should the rest of us - many of whom came from countries that were poverty-stricken before joining - deny another country their chance to join the most prosperous and peaceful supranational entity in the world?

But that's all it is: a chance. I'm all for Ukraine joining if they meet the criteria - which are merit-based. Right now, that won't be happening for two decades, but it can be faster if they can make the changes they need to make. The idea that they will be fast-tracked in for geostrategic reasons doesn't fly. They are too big to absorb in their current, corrupt war-torn state. But they deserve our support and their chance. Up to them now...

 

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[davek]

It's the right thing to do. The Ukrainians, and the other potential members, deserve the chance to join. Why should the rest of us - many of whom came from countries that were poverty-stricken before joining - deny another country their chance to join the most prosperous and peaceful supranational entity in the world?

But that's all it is: a chance. I'm all for Ukraine joining if they meet the criteria - which are merit-based. Right now, that won't be happening for two decades, but it can be faster if they can make the changes they need to make. The idea that they will be fast-tracked in for geostrategic reasons doesn't fly. They are too big to absorb in their current, corrupt war-torn state. But they deserve our support and their chance. Up to them now...

The IMF are currently crawling all over that place trying to stamp out corruption given cash is going into it.

It'll take an awful lot political bravery to crack down on the oligarchs. Zelensky will have to go. He's up to his neck in it.

 

[Martin Alvito]

In 2013, Ukraine was in the process of privatising oil and gas and the pipelines that carry Russias energy supply Europe which caused a fall out with Putin. He invaded in 2014.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-gas-pipelines/ukraine-govt-introduces-bill-to-allow-pipeline-privatisation-idUKL6N0DD3K920130426/

Ukraines huge natural resources remain underdeveloped. In 2017 Ukraine sought to implement a strategy of developing its mineral resources and diversifying away from Putins cash cow and creating a local competitor in his backyard.

Russia’s Resource Grab in Ukraine

Ukraine’s extraordinary riches in energy, minerals, and agriculture are a prize for the Kremlin.

foreignpolicy.com

Putin understands the value of food supply from Ujraine and Russia and has sought to weaponise this.

The same for critical minerals as was discussed by Prigozhin, and that Russias elite's were in Ukraine to plunder its resources, nothing else.

Redirect Notice

Its the same for there actions in Africa, plundering precious minerals (gold/diamonds etc) and battery metals.

It's the same issue also happening in the middle east.

I think we're at the point where we have to agree to disagree. The Africa comment is fair, but that gets back to my comment about the data post-Napoleonic Wars. The rules are a little different, down there, and it's a minority of interstate conflicts. Gaza is in no way economic. It's not a land grab. It's ethnic cleansing.

Actually, the Africa observation yields an interesting research question I bet no one has phrased in quite that way before. Pity I've been out of that game as long as I have. If the COW data matches up, and good bet it also comes out of the intrastate conflict dataset with some minimal time investment, a little formal modeling and a lit review could yield a sizable grant to drill down on exactly which structural factors are causal.

It wouldn't solve anything for our purposes, though. We would still be left with your, "Putin wanted to pay off his oligarchs," thesis against my, "That's not the way to do that on an old man's time horizon, and he didn't do it when he was young, so it has to be security" argument. I don't see how we could prove that one way or the other without instructing our kids to look at a classified information release, autocracies aren't good about that and we would be dead anyway.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

I think we're at the point where we have to agree to disagree. The Africa comment is fair, but that gets back to my comment about the data post-Napoleonic Wars. The rules are a little different, down there, and it's a minority of interstate conflicts. Gaza is in no way economic. It's not a land grab. It's ethnic cleansing.

Actually, the Africa observation yields an interesting research question I bet no one has phrased in quite that way before. Pity I've been out of that game as long as I have. If the COW data matches up, and good bet it also comes out of the intrastate conflict dataset with some minimal time investment, a little formal modeling and a lit review could yield a sizable grant to drill down on exactly which structural factors are causal.

It wouldn't solve anything for our purposes, though. We would still be left with your, "Putin wanted to pay off his oligarchs," thesis against my, "That's not the way to do that on an old man's time horizon, and he didn't do it when he was young, so it has to be security" argument. I don't see how we could prove that one way or the other without instructing our kids to look at a classified information release, autocracies aren't good about that and we would be dead anyway.

There is plenty of good work coming looking at the West African situation and plenty of Western government attention. Russia identified the Francophile countries as a soft spot but are probing across the region.

I am not sure that the Gaza war is not 100% economic dressed as a cultural spat, there are so many factors in play. The gas/oil field off the Gaza strip is a key strategic concern for both Hamas and Netanyahu and his tribe.

Deals are already being cut for the fields with the likes of BP, and it is worth considering Sunaks family business Infosys partnership with BP.

The Israel Eastmed gas pipeline that will connect the Leviathan (Israel) and Aphrodite (Cyprus) gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean to Europe and how this offers an alternative to Putins cash cow and why he and his ally Iran (Hamas) might not want it.

Also in the mix Putin (Gazprom) $40 billion deal in one of the links below.

The issues around Russia are all linked to them/Putin controlling resources and economics regardless of how they spin it.

Israel-Palestine war: Israel wants to seize Gaza's multibillion dollar gas field

The conflict has effectively frozen plans to revive a $1.4bn natural gas project that could have been a win-win for Israel and the Palestinians

www.middleeasteye.net

Who will win Israel's oil and gas war?

Netanyahu spies an untapped energy market in Europe

unherd.com

Israel puts a stop to oil pipeline deal with the UAE

UAE officials warn that the decision will negatively impact the nation's relationship with Israel

new.thecradle.co

PM: Decision on route for exporting natural gas to Europe expected in ‘3-6 months’

Netanyahu meets with Cypriot and Greek counterparts in Nicosia, whose government wants Israel to pump gas to a terminal in Cyprus where it would be liquified for shipment onward

www.timesofisrael.com

Amid ongoing war, BP and Eni among firms awarded gas exploration licenses in Israel​

https://www.timesofisrael.com/amid-ongoing-war-bp-and-eni-among-firms-awarded-gas-exploration-licenses-in-israel/

Iran and Russia's Gazprom sign primary deal for energy cooperation​

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iran-russias-gazprom-sign-primary-deal-energy-cooperation-2022-07-19/

 

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[davek]

Unreal.

Ukraine grenade incident: Councillor tosses explosives into meeting

Twenty-six people were wounded when the man entered the council meeting and detonated the grenades.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

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Looks like Crimea is getting hit tonight.

 

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G7 moves closer to seizing Russian assets for Ukraine

US discussion paper argues confiscating some of Moscow’s $300bn ‘consistent with international law’

www.ft.com

 

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EU vows Ukraine will get its money — with or without Orbán’s support

Leaders are willing to bust Europe’s hallowed unity if that’s what it takes to send cash to Kyiv.

www.politico.eu

 

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