Current Affairs Ukraine

[Spadge Vernacular]

This fella has pulled together a timeline of sorts with variuos sources looking at Russia's struggles.

Part 1: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1692840667838374343…
Part 2:https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1694388481051574335…
Part 3:https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1702022666297729036…

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Isn't this just an admission that the ground war has been shot to hell with no real advances and so a few successful special forces ops in Crimea has been elevated to underline that the Ukraine are still in this fight?

It has more to do with Zelensky visiting NY this week to attend the UN security council and then the WH to see Biden than anything substantial. The Ukrainians need to have something to show for the billions of US tax dollars spent on them so far.

Overall though the dial hasn't shifted.

That would be my overall appraisal.

Not really.

They had to stop the Russians launching cruise missiles at Lviv and Odesa from the Black Sea fleet.

By their actions they’ve now forced Russia to move what remains of its fleet away from Crimea and closer to Russia.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Russia’s southern mistake — Surovikin lines, Gerasimov tactics

The Zaporizhzhia front has been abuzz with news of Ukrainians breaking through Russia’s first defensive line and chiseling away at a breach in the second. “They’re widening that breach at this stage to enable the flow of armored vehicles and logistics so they can exploit it,” Michael Kofman,

kyivindependent.com

 

[Kev The Rat]

The current conflict in Ukraine is not really a war in the military sense where two countries throw their armies against each other with the result that a military win results also in a political win. Washington and the EU wouldn't even recognize a Russian military win against Ukraine. Russia is not escalating against Kiev since the real opponent is Washington

 

[Aberblue]

The current conflict in Ukraine is not really a war in the military sense where two countries throw their armies against each other with the result that a military win results also in a political win. Washington and the EU wouldn't even recognize a Russian military win against Ukraine. Russia is not escalating against Kiev since the real opponent is Washington

I can see the scene in the Kremlin:

Putin: "How's the war against America going, lads?"

Aides: "So far we've lost 30,000 killed, 120,000 wounded or missing, 2/3 of our tanks, 3/4 of our store of missiles, most of our Black Sea fleet, and countless lorries, trucks, and military vehicles."

Putin: "And the American losses?"

Aide: "They haven't turned up yet."

 

[tommye]

I can see the scene in the Kremlin:

Putin: "How's the war against America going, lads?"

Aides: "So far we've lost 30,000 killed, 120,000 wounded or missing, 2/3 of our tanks, 3/4 of our store of missiles, most of our Black Sea fleet, and countless lorries, trucks, and military vehicles."

Putin: "And the American losses?"

Aide: "They haven't turned up yet."

Crying here

 

[Kev The Rat]

I can see the scene in the Kremlin:

Putin: "How's the war against America going, lads?"

Aides: "So far we've lost 30,000 killed, 120,000 wounded or missing, 2/3 of our tanks, 3/4 of our store of missiles, most of our Black Sea fleet, and countless lorries, trucks, and military vehicles."

Putin: "And the American losses?"

Aide: "They haven't turned up yet."

I’m sure they’ll also be discussing how western economies have been crushed and how they’ve still got control of 20% of the so called Ukraine and how they’ve forced the Americans in desperation to pivot towards places like China and Africa.

This existential battle will be fought for the next 20-30 years

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

Ukrainian forces have likely made a significant tactical breach along a section of the current Russian defense layer in the Robotyne area over the past several weeks that they continue to widen. Ukrainian forces have continued offensive operations past a section of the Russian defensive layer west of Verbove since penetrating it on September 4 and have widened their breach along a 2.6km section of those Russian defensive positions.[11] The continued absence of observed Ukrainian heavy equipment and vehicles past this defensive layer continues to indicate that Ukrainian forces have yet to complete a breakthrough of this defensive layer, however.[12] Ukrainian officials have indicated that the series of Russian defensive positions currently ahead of the Ukrainian advance may be less challenging than the initial Russian defensive layer that Ukrainian forces broke through to the north.[13] Russian forces had concentrated the majority of their combat power at those forward-most Russian defensive positions to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, and these Russian forces have likely suffered heavy losses and conducted fighting withdrawals to prepared positions behind the current defensive layer.[14] ISW has long assessed that Russian forces lack the manpower to man the entire multi-echeloned Russian defensive fortification systems in southern Ukraine, and the Russian forces defending the current layer of defense are likely elements of formations that have been fighting in the area without operational-level unit rotation since the start of the counteroffensive or elements of formations that laterally transferred from elsewhere along the front.[15]

There is a lesson about the implications of the endemic corruption evident in Russia and how that is playing out in Ukraine.

Russian ultranationalists continued to complain about endemic lying within the Russian military after Russian State Duma Deputy and former Deputy Commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev voiced similar complaints on September 15. A Russian milblogger posted a statement reportedly from a subscriber on September 16 that concurred with Gurulev’s assertion that the culture of lying in the Russian military is the main issue preventing a Russian victory in Ukraine.[16] Another Russian milblogger stated that the issue is a “disaster” and that lies occur at all levels of the Russian military as subordinate commanders are afraid to report the truth about the condition and needs of units and formations.[17] The milblogger stated the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian President Vladimir Putin are likely receiving false reports. The milblogger added that tyranny (bad command culture), fraud, and a lack of military resourcefulness are some of the issues affecting the Russian military in Ukraine and that the main goal of the Russian military should be to minimize personnel losses. A Russian insider source compared Gurulev to deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin in his role as the “front line truth teller.”[18]

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on September 16 and continued to make gains in the area. Geolocated footage posted on September 15 confirms that Ukrainian forces have advanced south of Rozdolivka (about 13km

www.understandingwar.org

 

[Tipp blue]

The current conflict in Ukraine is not really a war in the military sense where two countries throw their armies against each other with the result that a military win results also in a political win. Washington and the EU wouldn't even recognize a Russian military win against Ukraine. Russia is not escalating against Kiev since the real opponent is Washington

Yea we know It's a special military operation...
Also in war a military win is very rare It's almost always a negotiated end.. WW1 WW2 and the American civil war are pretty much the only wars that ended with total victory.. (there may be a few more but not many) WW1 is also debatable as the results led to WW2.

 

[davek]

Not really.

They had to stop the Russians launching cruise missiles at Lviv and Odesa from the Black Sea fleet.

By their actions they’ve now forced Russia to move what remains of its fleet away from Crimea and closer to Russia.

Not away from Crimea, away from the Black Sea to the Azov Sea.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Not away from Crimea, away from the Black Sea to the Azov Sea.

further away the better. The nearest safe naval base for them now is Novorossiysk in Russia as Sevastopol is a no-go now.

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

It is good to see Putin being honest for once.

 

[WA Toffee]

I’m sure they’ll also be discussing how western economies have been crushed and how they’ve still got control of 20% of the so called Ukraine and how they’ve forced the Americans in desperation to pivot towards places like China and Africa.

This existential battle will be fought for the next 20-30 years

Worst thing is, that probably is what Putin's cronies are telling him

 

[Chewbacca]

I’m sure they’ll also be discussing how western economies have been crushed and how they’ve still got control of 20% of the so called Ukraine and how they’ve forced the Americans in desperation to pivot towards places like China and Africa.

This existential battle will be fought for the next 20-30 years

Crushed?

 

[Tipp blue]

It is good to see Putin being honest for once.

But but... security, demilitarise and Nazis