Current Affairs Ukraine

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4, 2023

Sep 4, 2023 - Press ISW
ISW%20LOGO%20FINAL%20ACRONYM%20%20%20NAME_ISW%20LOGO%20FINAL%20ACRONYM%20NAME%20CMYK_1558.png

Ukrainian light infantry has advanced to positions beyond anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth anti-tank obstacles that comprise the current Russian defensive layer ahead of the Ukrainian advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian forces likely intend to hold those positions. ISW is not prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have breached this Russian defensive layer in the absence of observed Ukrainian heavy equipment in these areas. Geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced to tree-line positions that are east of the Russian anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth obstacles that are a part of a tri-layered defense immediately west of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv). Geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian light infantry has also advanced further into a series of prepared Russian defensive positions along the road that runs northwest into Verbove. Other geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to Russian defensive positions between Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and Novoprokopivka (13km south of Orikhiv). Ukrainian forces are widening the breach they have already made in one Russian defensive layer and are reportedly maneuvering more equipment and personnel into tactical rear areas of this layer. Ukrainian forces appear to be making gains in the immediate vicinity of the not-yet-breached Russian defensive layer that runs northwest of Verbove to north of Solodka Balka (20km south of Orikhiv) with infantry assaults and heavy artillery fire on Russian positions further into and south of this layer. The deployment of Ukrainian heavy equipment and more substantial forces to these areas than ISW has so far observed would indicate both a breach of this Russian defensive layer and an effort to widen that breach.
 
Map of the Ukrainian gains made to date in the so called counter offensive

View attachment 226074
The Ukraine forces have captured back about 47 Sq KM around Bakhmut and 15 Sq KM in the southern theatre.

They lost tens of thousands of lives and even more injuries taking even that small area of land back.

They've pierced nothing, basically. The Ukrainians are conducting a misinformation war around this counter offensive but I dont think there's many western analysts who buy it.

The defence minister is sacked ostensibly over corruption (though it's there it's likely he wasn't the reason for it) but the reality is the feller is getting sacked for political reasons - Zelensky has to have someone to blame for the failure of the counter offensive.

It's stalemate and the rain is about to hit and then the snow. This is attrition.
 
Where do they get them from?
This article touches upon NK stock.
[Russia] is running short on conventional munitions as it continues the war in Ukraine, and it is likely that Russia will pay with oil and foodstuffs, both of which it produces in abundance and which North Korea is desperate to obtain.

"The North originally got their shells from the Soviet Union and through China and have continued to manufacture this sort of ammunition, meaning they have huge stockpiles and they can keep making more," said Gatling. "They will sell their inventory and while it may be old it will still be effective and, for the North, valuable because these shells will allow them to bring in food and oil.

"To me, it's clear that will strengthen both sides."
 
The Ukraine forces have captured back about 47 Sq KM around Bakhmut and 15 Sq KM in the southern theatre.

They lost tens of thousands of lives and even more injuries taking even that small area of land back.

They've pierced nothing, basically. The Ukrainians are conducting a misinformation war around this counter offensive but I dont think there's many western analysts who buy it.

The defence minister is sacked ostensibly over corruption (though it's there it's likely he wasn't the reason for it) but the reality is the feller is getting sacked for political reasons - Zelensky has to have someone to blame for the failure of the counter offensive.

It's stalemate and the rain is about to hit and then the snow. This is attrition.
It's as much an information war as anything. The truth will eventually come out long after this is all finished.

Zelensky will be like Churchill. A hero outside his country but ran out on a rail as soon as the war is over. Probably will help with building a peace. Hopefully a similar transition would happen with Putin being replaced but that is more unlikely.
 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4, 2023

Sep 4, 2023 - Press ISW
ISW%20LOGO%20FINAL%20ACRONYM%20%20%20NAME_ISW%20LOGO%20FINAL%20ACRONYM%20NAME%20CMYK_1558.png

Ukrainian light infantry has advanced to positions beyond anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth anti-tank obstacles that comprise the current Russian defensive layer ahead of the Ukrainian advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and Ukrainian forces likely intend to hold those positions. ISW is not prepared to assess that Ukrainian forces have breached this Russian defensive layer in the absence of observed Ukrainian heavy equipment in these areas. Geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced to tree-line positions that are east of the Russian anti-tank ditches and dragon’s teeth obstacles that are a part of a tri-layered defense immediately west of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv). Geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian light infantry has also advanced further into a series of prepared Russian defensive positions along the road that runs northwest into Verbove. Other geolocated footage published on September 4 indicates that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to Russian defensive positions between Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and Novoprokopivka (13km south of Orikhiv). Ukrainian forces are widening the breach they have already made in one Russian defensive layer and are reportedly maneuvering more equipment and personnel into tactical rear areas of this layer. Ukrainian forces appear to be making gains in the immediate vicinity of the not-yet-breached Russian defensive layer that runs northwest of Verbove to north of Solodka Balka (20km south of Orikhiv) with infantry assaults and heavy artillery fire on Russian positions further into and south of this layer. The deployment of Ukrainian heavy equipment and more substantial forces to these areas than ISW has so far observed would indicate both a breach of this Russian defensive layer and an effort to widen that breach.
The Ukes will now bring up their heavy / mobile armour now and envelop the Ru units in the Robotyne Verbove area and push onto Tokmak with their left flank protected.
 
It's as much an information war as anything. The truth will eventually come out long after this is all finished.

Zelensky will be like Churchill. A hero outside his country but ran out on a rail as soon as the war is over. Probably will help with building a peace. Hopefully a similar transition would happen with Putin being replaced but that is more unlikely.

TBF Churchill wasn’t ran out on a rail in ‘45, the Tories were. If he wasn’t the leader they would probably have been destroyed as a party for ever.
 
It's as much an information war as anything. The truth will eventually come out long after this is all finished.

Zelensky will be like Churchill. A hero outside his country but ran out on a rail as soon as the war is over. Probably will help with building a peace. Hopefully a similar transition would happen with Putin being replaced but that is more unlikely.
His wife - the Vogue superstar - is in the news (again) today.

She'd go to the opening of an envelope.

The Ukrainian people are being badly let down by that clown Zelensky. He'll be squirrelling away millions to a Swiss bank account and leave them to it to reconstruct that country after sacrificing about 150,000 people at the end of all this.
 
Map of the Ukrainian gains made to date in the so called counter offensive

View attachment 226074
Now do one of how much of Ukraine, Russia moved out of with their good will gestures... not because they were getting their ass kicked but good will gestures... the most astonishing thing I find with this war is how people are believing Russian propaganda.
 
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