Current Affairs Ukraine

[Mutzo Nutzo]

Yup. The Ukes deffo hit the airfield with something long-range (~250Km) and smart (gps guided).

They’ve either got ATACMS or the US have allowed them to reverse engineer the technology to deliver a Ukranian variant.

 

[Tramps_mate]

View attachment 176748

That's absolutely superb... lol lol

 

[peteblue]

Yup. The Ukes deffo hit the airfield with something long-range (~250Km) and smart (gps guided).

They’ve either got ATACMS or the US have allowed them to reverse engineer the technology to deliver a Ukranian variant.

It‘s now being mentioned as maybe a special forces operation…..

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

It‘s now being mentioned as maybe a special forces operation…..

Whatever it was - it has spooked the Russians big-time

 

[peteblue]

Whatever it was - it has spooked the Russians big-time

Indeed it has….

 

[maccavennie]

Whatever it was - it has spooked the Russians big-time

In what way would that spook them mate, is it with it being close to home, certain airbase, weapons used??

I try to keep up with what's going on and especially read yours and @PhilM posts, but every now and then I get completely lost with what's getting said and the implications of what's going on.

 

[PhilM]

In what way would that spook them mate, is it with it being close to home, certain airbase, weapons used??

I try to keep up with what's going on and especially read yours and @PhilM posts, but every now and then I get completely lost with what's getting said and the implications of what's going on.

It’s put a lot of their assets in Crimea and across the Russian border in the sights of the Ukrainians, and their countermeasures weren’t effective.

When you add the intelligence the Ukrainians are receiving and their apparent ability to conduct precision strikes, they’ll be very concerned.

 

[maccavennie]

It’s put a lot of their assets in Crimea and across the Russian border in the sights of the Ukrainians, and their countermeasures weren’t effective.

When you add the intelligence the Ukrainians are receiving and their apparent ability to conduct precision strikes, they’ll be very concerned.

Cheers mate

 

[Yarrgh]

In what way would that spook them mate, is it with it being close to home, certain airbase, weapons used??

I try to keep up with what's going on and especially read yours and @PhilM posts, but every now and then I get completely lost with what's getting said and the implications of what's going on.

Russia don't even see Crimea as anything other than Russia. If Ukraine strike there, then they have promised heavy retaliation as if it were anywhere in Russia.

A fiction that it wasn't Ukraine may suit both sides as it stops Russia ramping up to the next level for the moment and Ukraine show that they can strike at such areas if required. It will make Ukraine's position stronger if it goes to the negotiating table.

When you think of what ramping up the Russian assault on Ukraine might entail, then we should all be spooked.

 

[maccavennie]

Russia don't even see Crimea as anything other than Russia. If Ukraine strike there, then they have promised heavy retaliation as if it were anywhere in Russia.

A fiction that it wasn't Ukraine may suit both sides as it stops Russia ramping up to the next level for the moment and Ukraine show that they can strike at such areas if required. It will make Ukraine's position stronger if it goes to the negotiating table.

When you think of what ramping up the Russian assault on Ukraine might entail, then we should all be spooked.

Would they react to that attack by threatening nuclear war with Ukraine do you think mate? Or would that attack be a warning to Russia by Ukraine to say "hey, look what we can do and thats just for starters"?

 

[Yarrgh]

Would they react to that attack by threatening nuclear war with Ukraine do you think mate? Or would that attack be a warning to Russia by Ukraine to say "hey, look what we can do and thats just for starters"?

There's plenty of nasties before nuclear- we saw the use of phosphorus in Syria for instance. God knows what chemical and biological they're prepared to put into play. What would NATO and the rest do if any of this happened?

I suspect that Ukraine have taken the opportunity to put a shot across the bows here and it might put a halt in Russian plans. It will make a big impact on what Russian plans are.

We've also got the prospect of Taiwan and China in conflict- can we afford to back both Ukraine and China? This might push the opening of negotiations up to Russia and free up resources for Taiwan.

I can't see the downside of a one of strike like this by Ukraine but I don't think they'd be wisely advised to keep at it unless they were certain Russia would fall over very doon after.

As for nuclear itself - Kyiv is already next to a radioactive disaster site, if you were in Putin's shoes and with his mind set, what would you do? I don't think he'd go that far unless he felt it was going really abysmally.

 

[maccavennie]

There's plenty of nasties before nuclear- we saw the use of phosphorus in Syria for instance. God knows what chemical and biological they're prepared to put into play. What would NATO and the rest do if any of this happened?

I suspect that Ukraine have taken the opportunity to put a shot across the bows here and it might put a halt in Russian plans. It will make a big impact on what Russian plans are.

We've also got the prospect of Taiwan and China in conflict- can we afford to back both Ukraine and China? This might push the opening of negotiations up to Russia and free up resources for Taiwan.

I can't see the downside of a one of strike like this by Ukraine but I don't think they'd be wisely advised to keep at it unless they were certain Russia would fall over very doon after.

As for nuclear itself - Kyiv is already next to a radioactive disaster site, if you were in Putin's shoes and with his mind set, what would you do? I don't think he'd go that far unless he felt it was going really abysmally.

Cheers mate, really interesting to hear your take on what's currently going on. I try to keep up with as much as I can but there's definitely times where a lot of it goes over my head (which probably isn't a bad thing!)

 

[Yarrgh]

Cheers mate, really interesting to hear your take on what's currently going on. I try to keep up with as much as I can but there's definitely times where a lot of it goes over my head (which probably isn't a bad thing!)

I've been following it since the Maidan Revolution. It's seriously screwed up.

Absolutely no one is without skeletons in their closet and as ever the poor innocent men, women and children are the ones paying for the whims of people who won't suffer at all.

 

[Mutzo Nutzo]

In what way would that spook them mate, is it with it being close to home, certain airbase, weapons used??

I try to keep up with what's going on and especially read yours and @PhilM posts, but every now and then I get completely lost with what's getting said and the implications of what's going on.

I think it’s the implication that Crimea is no longer safe. Some of the images showed Russian tourists on the beach as the explosions kicked off. They soon scarpered back across the Kerch bridge.

Also no one actually knows for sure how the Ukes did this and that most if all is worrying for the Russians

 

[tsubaki]

There's plenty of nasties before nuclear- we saw the use of phosphorus in Syria for instance. God knows what chemical and biological they're prepared to put into play. What would NATO and the rest do if any of this happened?

I suspect that Ukraine have taken the opportunity to put a shot across the bows here and it might put a halt in Russian plans. It will make a big impact on what Russian plans are.

We've also got the prospect of Taiwan and China in conflict- can we afford to back both Ukraine and China? This might push the opening of negotiations up to Russia and free up resources for Taiwan.

I can't see the downside of a one of strike like this by Ukraine but I don't think they'd be wisely advised to keep at it unless they were certain Russia would fall over very doon after.

As for nuclear itself - Kyiv is already next to a radioactive disaster site, if you were in Putin's shoes and with his mind set, what would you do? I don't think he'd go that far unless he felt it was going really abysmally.

TBF it is extremely questionable whether we could give any meaningful help to Taiwan if the PRC did attack - Ukraine borders the EU for a few hundred miles and it would be extremely difficult for the Russians to cut off that supply route, but as everyone saw at the weekend the PRC could blockade the island and nothing would get in that they didn't approve of.

Only a military response from the US could stand a chance, and even then it would be doubtful that they could gather the necessary force (we are talking probably most of their carrier groups plus a big chunk of the rest to the nations around the area) in time to make a difference to an invasion. They might not even try to do that (get involved on land) given the advantage (in terms of distance) that the PRC would have and instead start picking off the blockade forces / shutting down maritime traffic to and from China at a distance.