Turkey

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dholliday said:
I'd like to see stats on civilian deaths due to murder in Western countries in yearly stretches from 1980 to 2016. I believe we'll see a different trend to the lines from your graph.
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Think this is roughly the info you were looking for but data only goes up to 2013 though, includes incidents such as 9/11 and the Norwegian shooting deaths.
https://kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2015/10/01/assault-death-rates-1960-2013/
https://kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2012/12/18/assault-death-rates-in-america-some-follow-up/

assault-deaths-oecd-ts-all-new-2013.png

Assault Death rates in the US and other OECD countries, 1960-2013.
 
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LinekersLegs said:
Think this is roughly the info you were looking for but data only goes up to 2013 though, includes incidents such as 9/11 and the Norwegian shooting deaths.
https://kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2015/10/01/assault-death-rates-1960-2013/
https://kieranhealy.org/blog/archives/2012/12/18/assault-death-rates-in-america-some-follow-up/

assault-deaths-oecd-ts-all-new-2013.png

Assault Death rates in the US and other OECD countries, 1960-2013.
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cheers legs...this shows us that assault deaths are generally down in comparison with previous decades, and slightly down in OECD too.

So why do we have this impression that things are getting worse? I think it's because mass killings are more numerous than before, and mass killings being what they are (i.e. more newsworthy than individual deaths) we get to hear about them.

Good old succinct Wikipedia has this handy page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rampage_killers

Still not as succinct as we'd like, for they list school massacres, rampage killers and religious murderers separately for some reason.

The interesting thing for this debate is if we list by year, we'll see a disproportiate amount of top-heavy killings occured in Western countries and in the last 15 years, whereas in the 50 years prior to that there were relatively few, and less victim-numbered, mass killings. We could argue the blanket media coverage not just increases our awareness but encourages future killings too.

Check out this list for example, and sort via year:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_rampage_killers#Religious.2C_political_or_racial_crimes

Also note the religion of the perpetrator.

For some odd reason terror attacks like 7/7, Madrid, 9/11, Bataclan, Brussels aren't included. But Nice is and so is the Pulse shooting.

So if we include the terror attacks along with all these 'rampage' lists and sort via year and place, we see a very noticable increase in Western countries of incidents for the last 15 years.
 
dholliday said:
Seems there's a massive news event with dozens or even hundreds dying every few weeks...I'm honestly losing track.
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also, at the risk of quoting myself, since 2016 which is only halfway through we've had (going by hazy memory and rough numbers):

- turkish coup (200 dead)
- Nice (85)
- Brussels (30)
- Paris (100)

plus a few US mass shootings and more I've forgotten.

Not too long ago there was the Breivik atrocity and not long before that the Madrid and London bombs.

Whether it's terror, shootings, massacre, coup or rampage: it does look like intentional events which result in mass deaths is on the increase in civilised Western societies.
 
dholliday said:
also, at the risk of quoting myself, since 2016 which is only halfway through we've had (going by hazy memory and rough numbers):

- turkish coup (200 dead)
- Nice (85)
- Brussels (30)
- Paris (100)

plus a few US mass shootings and more I've forgotten.

Not too long ago there was the Breivik atrocity and not long before that the Madrid and London bombs.

Whether it's terror, shootings, massacre, coup or rampage: it does look like intentional events which result in mass deaths is on the increase in civilised Western societies.
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One issue is the people performing them know the panic and hysteria they'll cause but at the same time the media can't ignore it either. Also it seems alot of people are putting their ideology/beliefs/morals, etc over the lives of them selves and others.
 
dholliday said:
cheers legs...this shows us that assault deaths are generally down in comparison with previous decades, and slightly down in OECD too.

So why do we have this impression that things are getting worse? I think it's because mass killings are more numerous than before, and mass killings being what they are (i.e. more newsworthy than individual deaths) we get to hear about them..
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Agree that the number and concentration of mass killings probably makes a perception difference, in much the same way a series a plane accidents will make it seem flying is unsafe even if overall travel is far safer.

Think there is also an element of how much you can relate to it. People and their inner circle of family/friends travel more frequently both for business and pleasure than they used to, whilst immigration and the internet has made it far easier to establish a relationship with those who are not of the same background or geographically close. In addition to that is the social media effect where someone posts online a video of an event realtime so you can feel like you are living it right next to them.

So a coup d'etat attempt in Turkey in 2016 probably feels a lot closer to home to many people in the UK than say the 1980 one would have with attendant feelings of fear/concern.
 
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USABlue said:
One issue is the people performing them know the panic and hysteria they'll cause but at the same time the media can't ignore it either. Also it seems alot of people are putting their ideology/beliefs/morals, etc over the lives of them selves and others.
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LinekersLegs said:
Agree that the number and concentration of mass killings probably makes a perception difference, in much the same way a series a plane accidents will make it seem flying is unsafe even if overall travel is far safer.

Think there is also an element of how much you can relate to it. People and their inner circle of family/friends travel more frequently both for business and pleasure than they used to, whilst immigration and the internet has made it far easier to establish a relationship with those who are not of the same background or geographically close. In addition to that is the social media effect where someone posts online a video of an event realtime so you can feel like you are living it right next to them.

So a coup d'etat attempt in Turkey in 2016 probably feels a lot closer to home to many people in the UK than say the 1980 one would have with attendant feelings of fear/concern.
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aye, agree with that...that along with the dramatic increase of mass killings - not just perception of, but real immense increase - means there is some justification when people say 'the world is going to shyte'.

It's in momentum and is hard to stop. Hence the feeling something big will go down (momentum like this, historically, often builds up to a crash).
 
dholliday said:
aye, agree with that...that along with the dramatic increase of mass killings - not just perception of, but real immense increase - means there is some justification when people say 'the world is going to shyte'.

It's in momentum and is hard to stop. Hence the feeling something big will go down (momentum like this, historically, often builds up to a crash).
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...
 
News thump.....


The Turkish government has arrested thousands of people this morning whose names were on great big lists they just happened to have lying around the place for no reason whatsoever.

Insisting they had no idea anything untoward might happen over the weekend, government representatives explained that the arrest lists – which included thousands of judges, civil servants, police and people who didn’t vote for the President – had been drawn up just as a purely intellectual exercise, weeks before.

“Every country keeps great big lists of people they’d arrest in the event of an unexpected coup attempt,” explained spokesman Simon Williamcu.

“These things happen all the time, so it would be negligent not to make sure you knew who you’d like the opportunity to get out of your way, and have enough handcuffs stockpiled just in case.”

President Erdogan has addressed supporters this morning, explaining that he will be tireless in tracking down whoever it was that burned down the Reichstag.

“Attempted a coup. Damn, sorry, I was reading the wrong notes there for a moment,” he added.

Over 6,000 arrests have been made for involvement in the coup, which is impressively prompt intelligence work for a country which had no idea whatsoever anything was coming.

In the wake of the attacks the President is expected to grant himself all kinds of spiffy new powers and possibly suspend future elections, because we’ve never seen anyone do anything like that before......
 
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