Current Affairs The next Tory (strong and stable) leader is Boris Johnson

[Eggs]

...Geoffrey Cox and others saying Labour are ‘running scared’ in avoiding a GE. Rich coming from a Government who illegally suspended Parliament to avoid being held to account.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

Its been referred to already here, although I'm not a big advocate of history repeating itself, more our future rhymes with past, indeed, some in Brexit really need to have a good look at themselves, because there is no doubt there is something very sinister in Brexit that echoes with what is debated in BBC rise of the Nazis.

Although it appears now this absolute idiot of PrimeMinister has been pulled back from the brink by the supreme court's, you only have to listen Farage gobbing off. To realise how close the Conservative party is flirting with some very dangerous populism.

 

[gonetomorrow]

That Geoffrey Cox'll never be out of work while there's a demand for foghorns.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

...Geoffrey Cox and others saying Labour are ‘running scared’ in avoiding a GE. Rich coming from a Government who illegally suspended Parliament to avoid being held to account.

Its a joke of a ploy, one hand avoid scrutiny by shutting down Parliament on the other call them cowards. Tedious nonsense from this Government. And where is Prime Minister, being the coward as usual.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Maybe someone should have reminded Cox that his government did have a (kind of) majority, before 'the peeeeeple' voted a few out in bi-elections and Johnson turfed 21 more out in a tantrum.

 

[catcherintherye]

He's in position, Johnson, because the cult that he takes his orders from have told the rest of the supine Tory MPs that he can beat Corbyn and secure their jobs in parliament for them. It's a death pact now. As Johnson says: do or die.

Right now the bulk of the Tory MPs must be sweating like a glass blowers arse wondering WTF they've done to allow Johnson to become leader of their party.

It'll be very interesting to see the latest opinion polls post-Supreme Court ruling. I suspect the Brexit Party might get a boost and Johnson will be even more under the cosh.

Yes I mean Johnson was something of a last throw of the dice. The analogy I’ve used on here was the Titanic sinking. The iceberg has been hit for them, May drove them straight into it. What they needed was someone to grasp this and begin to effectively man the lifeboats.

Johnson represents the loudmouth buffoon telling everyone in first class it is fine “dude” and he will outdo the negative naysayers. He’s convinced them to go back to bed. It’s quite an assuring message and a lot nicer message than some of the others telling them to pack what they can and launch themselves into a 10 ft wooden lifeboat in the middle of the Atlantic.

I suspect some of them not only had the life boat not been hit, but that what was really the problem was they weren’t going quickly enough and needed a better (and more ambitious driver) to avoid it. It was a big miscalculation which may end up costing the tories not just the next election but their future as an organization.

As for opinion polls, at the risk of blowing my own trumpet I’ve made a fair amount of money predicting the last two elections with different bookmakers. The polls are even further out than in the last 2 elections, which were disastrous for pollsters. The same people, and the network of frauds around them are still giving their opinions though, without even the slightest bit of humility to acknowledge they have called the last 2 elections incorrectly. They seem to have doubled down on the same mistakes they’ve made, like a toddler in the mid throws of a tantrum at being told they were wrong.

Johnson was always going to get a bonce (which again I stated) but the polls go haywire by the end of October. The Brexit Party and Farage will play a very big role going forward and could quite easily cannibalise the Tories. Any electoral deal they do will be one that heavily benefits the Brexit Party and will weaken the Tories as a result (hence why it was rejected out of hand by the Conservatives and will continue to be).

Johnson will not deliver the Brexit that the Brexit Party voters want, and as that sinks in they will loose voters. On the other side, even a small swing to the Lib Dems will see them losing upwards of 50 seats in England and the 10 they have in Scotland (to the SNP). They will lose a lot of moderate Tory seats as well.

That’s the reality of what will happen. But the hacks around the process (Kuensberg, Peston et al) will have you believe Johnson is on for a Blair style victory. In the end I am grateful for that, as it will mean a killing can be made at the next election, by basically ignoring what the media tell you.

The sensible Tories will slowly become aware of this, and the knives will be turning on Johnson before too long.

 

[Khalekan]

Having said that, I still believe Parliamentary procedure should be outwith the ambit of the Judiciary.

I never said or suggested what you have said above.

I have said all along that there should be a division between the Judiciary and the Parliamentary Executive.

I do not support the present Government, having voted Labour all my life.

It is a sad fact of life, which the court case has illustrated, that there were no hard-and-fast rules concerning prorogation. In the light of the court case, one of the first things Parliament should do is introduce a law setting down the time limit for future prorogations - that, I believe, is common sense. Or, vest in the Speaker of the House the final say in the length of any prorogation, which cannot then be challenged. Problem solved.

A Government with a working majority actually DOES do 'what the heck it likes'. The opposition might rant and rave, but in the final analysis, unless there is a major revolt on the Government benches, they will get through what they want.

Yes you did and there above is the relevant post.

Why try to deny It?

You just make yourself look foolish.

 

[davek]

Yes I mean Johnson was something of a last throw of the dice. The analogy I’ve used on here was the Titanic sinking. The iceberg has been hit for them, May drove them straight into it. What they needed was someone to grasp this and begin to effectively man the lifeboats.

Johnson represents the loudmouth buffoon telling everyone in first class it is fine “dude” and he will outdo the negative naysayers. He’s convinced them to go back to bed. It’s quite an assuring message and a lot nicer message than some of the others telling them to pack what they can and launch themselves into a 10 ft wooden lifeboat in the middle of the Atlantic.

I suspect some of them not only had the life boat not been hit, but that what was really the problem was they weren’t going quickly enough and needed a better (and more ambitious driver) to avoid it. It was a big miscalculation which may end up costing the tories not just the next election but their future as an organization.

As for opinion polls, at the risk of blowing my own trumpet I’ve made a fair amount of money predicting the last two elections with different bookmakers. The polls are even further out than in the last 2 elections, which were disastrous for pollsters. The same people, and the network of frauds around them are still giving their opinions though, without even the slightest bit of humility to acknowledge they have called the last 2 elections incorrectly. They seem to have doubled down on the same mistakes they’ve made, like a toddler in the mid throws of a tantrum at being told they were wrong.

Johnson was always going to get a bonce (which again I stated) but the polls go haywire by the end of October. The Brexit Party and Farage will play a very big role going forward and could quite easily cannibalise the Tories. Any electoral deal they do will be one that heavily benefits the Brexit Party and will weaken the Tories as a result (hence why it was rejected out of hand by the Conservatives and will continue to be).

Johnson will not deliver the Brexit that the Brexit Party voters want, and as that sinks in they will loose voters. On the other side, even a small swing to the Lib Dems will see them losing upwards of 50 seats in England and the 10 they have in Scotland (to the SNP). They will lose a lot of moderate Tory seats as well.

That’s the reality of what will happen. But the hacks around the process (Kuensberg, Peston et al) will have you believe Johnson is on for a Blair style victory. In the end I am grateful for that, as it will mean a killing can be made at the next election, by basically ignoring what the media tell you.

The sensible Tories will slowly become aware of this, and the knives will be turning on Johnson before too long.

Agree with you 100% about the polls: they are weaponised and of almost no importance today.

If the election was just about Brexit then Johnson and his ilk might get the nod from the electorate because they offer a swift cutting of the Gordian Knot. However, it isn't a referendum on Brexit, it's an election - and people know how they vote could get them Johnson and his chaos for 5 years. No one is geting into poll booths in sufficient numbers on polling day to vote for that option.

 

[catcherintherye]

Agree with you 100% about the polls: they are weaponised and of almost no importance today.

If the election was just about Brexit then Johnson and his ilk might get the nod from the electorate because they offer a swift cutting of the Gordian Knot. However, it isn't a referendum on Brexit, it's an election - and people know how they vote could get them Johnson and his chaos for 5 years. No one is geting into poll booths in sufficient numbers on polling day to vote for that option.

Apparently there was a poll a couple of weeks back that showed the Tories were at around 287 seats. It was private polling that Tory HQ had. (For reasons I've explained in another thread, essentially piling up votes in safe seats) I suspect such numbers may even be optimistic. However these are the real polls that the parties will be working towards. The public polls are a window dressing exercise. It's also inconceivable the 15+ point lead the Tories are showing matches with the alleged private polling. My money is they are trying desperately to force Corbyn out, which has been the plan for 2-3 years. Get a moderate in and allow continuity remain to rule.

As for the election, you are absolutely right as well. An election campaign will absolute frazzle Johnson, who it can already be seen is useless at meeting the public and has an advisor who is clueless about how ordinary people think of him. Whatever you think about Labour's manifesto, they have all sorts of things that are going to put the Tories on the back foot as well.

There are also legal obligations re an election, that people have to be treated with something approaching fairness. What this has always shown, is when Corbyn is given a fair crack of the whip, suddenly his poll rating go soaring upwards as people can see and here he actually has some good ideas, and he is not simultaneously running the command centre of Hezzbollah, the BUF, Hamas and the IRA while endangering the country for being a pacifist.

 

[davek]

Apparently there was a poll a couple of weeks back that showed the Tories were at around 287 seats. It was private polling that Tory HQ had. (For reasons I've explained in another thread, essentially piling up votes in safe seats) I suspect such numbers may even be optimistic. However these are the real polls that the parties will be working towards. The public polls are a window dressing exercise. It's also inconceivable the 15+ point lead the Tories are showing matches with the alleged private polling. My money is they are trying desperately to force Corbyn out, which has been the plan for 2-3 years. Get a moderate in and allow continuity remain to rule.

As for the election, you are absolutely right as well. An election campaign will absolute frazzle Johnson, who it can already be seen is useless at meeting the public and has an advisor who is clueless about how ordinary people think of him. Whatever you think about Labour's manifesto, they have all sorts of things that are going to put the Tories on the back foot as well.

There are also legal obligations re an election, that people have to be treated with something approaching fairness. What this has always shown, is when Corbyn is given a fair crack of the whip, suddenly his poll rating go soaring upwards as people can see and here he actually has some good ideas, and he is not simultaneously running the command centre of Hezzbollah, the BUF, Hamas and the IRA while endangering the country for being a pacifist.

"There are also legal obligations re an election, that people have to be treated with something approaching fairness. What this has always shown, is when Corbyn is given a fair crack of the whip, suddenly his poll rating go soaring upwards as people can see and here he actually has some good ideas".

Absolutely spot on. He is a real person. People identify with that. He single handedly secured Labour's good showing in 2017. He'll do the same again soon.

 

[Old Blue 2]

Yes you did and there above is the relevant post.

Why try to deny It?

You just make yourself look foolish.

Don't you read things properly?

Jeez, I don't know why I bother engaging in conversation with you...

You look foolish by being so confrontational and argumentative.

 

[catcherintherye]

"There are also legal obligations re an election, that people have to be treated with something approaching fairness. What this has always shown, is when Corbyn is given a fair crack of the whip, suddenly his poll rating go soaring upwards as people can see and here he actually has some good ideas".

Absolutely spot on. He is a real person. People identify with that. He single handedly secured Labour's good showing in 2017. He'll do the same again soon.

People see him on TV unedited. He's very good at campaigning and I thought his speech yesterday was excellent. Taking on private schools, big Drug Companies, Donald Trump, Illegal Wars, No Deal Brexit, Proroguing Parliament while repealing trade union laws-increasing minimum wage and giving workers shares/dividends will all be extremely popular, particularly amongst potential Labour voters.

 

[Khalekan]

Don't you read things properly?

Jeez, I don't know why I bother engaging in conversation with you...

You look foolish by being so confrontational and argumentative.

Confucius once advised a man in a hole to lay his spade aside.

You might want to heed that advice your own self, Blue

 

[Aberblue]

People see him on TV unedited. He's very good at campaigning and I thought his speech yesterday was excellent. Taking on private schools, big Drug Companies, Donald Trump, Illegal Wars, No Deal Brexit, Proroguing Parliament while repealing trade union laws-increasing minimum wage and giving workers shares/dividends will all be extremely popular, particularly amongst potential Labour voters.

At the risk of going off topic (this thread is about the Tories, not Labour) what Corbyn has done is pretty clever. He's promising all kinds of things that people like, without going into any detail as to how they'll be paid for. This will succeed for two reasons, namely a) the Conservatives are doing the same, though on a smaller scale, so can't use the "where's the magic money tree" argument, and b) the bar has been set so low for honesty in politicians now that even outright, bare-faced lying is considered acceptable.

 

[peteblue]

...Geoffrey Cox and others saying Labour are ‘running scared’ in avoiding a GE. Rich coming from a Government who illegally suspended Parliament to avoid being held to account.

But Cox is right though......