Current Affairs The General Election

[Tubey]

They haven't got a clue.

My theory is that there's always been a duplicity to Tory campaigning. They say one thing but mean another. The problem is, that they know believe the nonsense they spout. We are through the looking glass.

For the record, have a look at constituency polling coming out. It's backing up what I said a few weeks back. Their polling in marginals doesn't match national voting intentions. The Lib Dems in the South are within touching distance of seats such as Wokingham and Esher, while Labour are holding Gedling comfortably at present.

Simplistically if Labour are lower in the South and up in the north, and the Lib Dems vice versa they're in big trouble.

Overall, this really isn't good news for Labour.



They need to shift the focus from Brexit... somehow.

 

[catcherintherye]

Source for the polls mate?

Survation mate.

2019 | Survation

12th December 2019 – Survation conducted an online poll of 1004 people aged 16+ living in Scotland on behalf of the Courier asking about their voting...

www.survation.com

 

[Jebus_lives]

Overall, this really isn't good news for Labour.



They need to shift the focus from Brexit... somehow.

This is absolutely right. The message has to be away from Brexit and towards the Tories record in the last 10 years.

Johnson saying 'we deserve better' should be easy pickings for Labour.

Keep calling hom.out as a compulsive liar and hammering the message that he could've had Brexit done but decided to hold an election instead...

 

[catcherintherye]

Overall, this really isn't good news for Labour.



They need to shift the focus from Brexit... somehow.

Yes thats fair, though some of the immigration vote is down so it's helpful there. Without doubt the further it gets from the EU the more it favours Labour.

A couple of interesting anecdotal bits of evidence though. C4 tonight went to Hartlepool, interviewed a number of older leave voters who all seemed to shrug their shoulders at Brexit being an important issue. Likewise in Gedling in the Economist report, it was saying that Labour were not only being thanked for their Brexit position, but people thought the Tory leaflet was a Labour leaflet. There is a possibility that PV is more popular than we think and Labour may have a deceptively strong offering.

On yougov earlier there was a similar question to the one above. It had Brexit top priority, Health was 2nd on 40% (but down 5%) though environmentalism was up 17 to 4th place. So some room for optimism there as Labour will score well on those.

You are right though, the more of a Brexit election it is, in general the worse it is for Labour. It's why I'm amazed the Tories have started with kamikaze bombshells of tax and spend, disowning austerity and trying to win an arms war on spending. It's certainly not the initial impression I'd have gone for!

 

[orly]

This is absolutely right. The message has to be away from Brexit and towards the Tories record in the last 10 years.

Johnson saying 'we deserve better' should be easy pickings for Labour.

Keep calling hom.out as a compulsive liar and hammering the message that he could've had Brexit done but decided to hold an election instead...

No- this is the exact same trap the Democrats fell into with Trump. People know this already, it's wasted effort and doesn't land.

 

[Jebus_lives]

No- this is the exact same trap the Democrats fell into with Trump. People know this already, it's wasted effort and doesn't land.

Yes but I think the British public have a different view of liars than Americans.

America seems to have the belief that Trump lies to 'own the libs' whereas the UK seems to want a better standard of politics.

Although I agree you can't totally rely on it as the only means of attack, it has to be backed up with things that are relevant to the public. Explain why they are poorer, why the hospital that serves them is on its knees, explain why there are much fewer police.

 

[Tubey]

Yes thats fair, though some of the immigration vote is down so it's helpful there. Without doubt the further it gets from the EU the more it favours Labour.

A couple of interesting anecdotal bits of evidence though. C4 tonight went to Hartlepool, interviewed a number of older leave voters who all seemed to shrug their shoulders at Brexit being an important issue. Likewise in Gedling in the Economist report, it was saying that Labour were not only being thanked for their Brexit position, but people thought the Tory leaflet was a Labour leaflet. There is a possibility that PV is more popular than we think and Labour may have a deceptively strong offering.

On yougov earlier there was a similar question to the one above. It had Brexit top priority, Health was 2nd on 40% (but down 5%) though environmentalism was up 17 to 4th place. So some room for optimism there as Labour will score well on those.

You are right though, the more of a Brexit election it is, in general the worse it is for Labour. It's why I'm amazed the Tories have started with kamikaze bombshells of tax and spend, disowning austerity and trying to win an arms war on spending. It's certainly not the initial impression I'd have gone for!

What's odd is that Labour's Brexit position, to me at least, is the most sensible of the lot.

But they've communicated it like total cockwombles.

The hope has to be that "Election Mode" Corbyn can communicate it better, because at the moment they're perceived as ditherers.

All he has to say is "The Labour party policy is to rule out no deal and give the people the choice between a deal and remaining. Under no circumstances will we countenance no deal like the Tories, and we'll give the people a renewed choice unlike the Lib Dems."

Not hard, but they make it seem like a complex maths problem.

 

[Tubey]

This is absolutely right. The message has to be away from Brexit and towards the Tories record in the last 10 years.

Johnson saying 'we deserve better' should be easy pickings for Labour.

Just put this on a poster.

Or don't, as I don't want Corbyn in power haha

 

[Jebus_lives]

Just put this on a poster.

Or don't, as I don't want Corbyn in power haha

Exactly. I have a feeling Corbyn, regardless of election result won't be around for much longer. Labour will be looking for someone new..

The problem they have is who and if they can beat down all of the internal fires within Labour.

 

[Charlie Sweet]

Yes thats fair, though some of the immigration vote is down so it's helpful there. Without doubt the further it gets from the EU the more it favours Labour.

A couple of interesting anecdotal bits of evidence though. C4 tonight went to Hartlepool, interviewed a number of older leave voters who all seemed to shrug their shoulders at Brexit being an important issue. Likewise in Gedling in the Economist report, it was saying that Labour were not only being thanked for their Brexit position, but people thought the Tory leaflet was a Labour leaflet. There is a possibility that PV is more popular than we think and Labour may have a deceptively strong offering.

On yougov earlier there was a similar question to the one above. It had Brexit top priority, Health was 2nd on 40% (but down 5%) though environmentalism was up 17 to 4th place. So some room for optimism there as Labour will score well on those.

You are right though, the more of a Brexit election it is, in general the worse it is for Labour. It's why I'm amazed the Tories have started with kamikaze bombshells of tax and spend, disowning austerity and trying to win an arms war on spending. It's certainly not the initial impression I'd have gone for!

What's PV?

 

[peteblue]

Exactly. I have a feeling Corbyn, regardless of election result won't be around for much longer. Labour will be looking for someone new..

The problem they have is who and if they can beat down all of the internal fires within Labour.

My money is on Dianne Abbott, the greatest intellectual within the current party......stunning brain power......

 

[Tubey]

Exactly. I have a feeling Corbyn, regardless of election result won't be around for much longer. Labour will be looking for someone new..

The problem they have is who and if they can beat down all of the internal fires within Labour.

If they're sensible and want to be electable, they go for Keir Starmer.

He's not as left as Corbyn but he's no Blair. He's smart, speaks well, is very much centre-left and can bring the party together and is above all electable.

I see absolutely no way Momentum would let it happen though. The bookies have him as favourite but I think that's ignoring the realities of the Labour party and placing too much emphasis on common sense instead.

I think it'll go to some no-hoper like Thornberry and Labour will lose again next time. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[Tubey]

What's PV?

People's Vote

 

[Jebus_lives]

If they're sensible and want to be electable, they go for Keir Starmer.

He's not as left as Corbyn but he's no Blair. He's smart, speaks well, is very much centre-left and can bring the party together and is above all electable.

I see absolutely no way Momentum would let it happen though. The bookies have him as favourite but I think that's ignoring the realities of the Labour party and placing too much emphasis on common sense instead.

I think it'll go to some no-hoper like Thornberry and Labour will lose again next time. Hope I'm wrong.

Thornberry would be a disaster.

I think Starmer is probably the sensible choice my only worry with him is he doesn't make me 'feel' anything when I listen to him. It's considered, logical and a bit sterile.

 

[peteblue]

This is absolutely right. The message has to be away from Brexit and towards the Tories record in the last 10 years.

Johnson saying 'we deserve better' should be easy pickings for Labour.

Keep calling hom.out as a compulsive liar and hammering the message that he could've had Brexit done but decided to hold an election instead...

Even if true, the majority of sensible people will still blame Labour and Corbyn........Boris is fireproof on this.....