Current Affairs The General Election

[catcherintherye]

@catcherintherye

Interesting.

Analysis shows Tories’ Facebook ads have swerved to defending their seats – ‘Something has them spooked’

Major switch to defending Tory seats – including some with significant majorities – over last week The Tories’ huge spending on Facebook ads has taken a sharp swerve over the last…

skwawkbox.org

I'll add Dave, their plan to win in the Midlands and North has nothing to do with their stated aim of marching in triumphantly. It revolves around depressing the turnout. If turnout goes up it's a big concern for them.

Cummings is not the Tory operation (hes been sidelined) but hes concerned.

They will portray a cocky outer image, and no doubt some MPs will believe it.

 

[orly]

No frandelino, its the telegraph.

???????????

 

[dead_soft]

I'll add Dave, their plan to win in the Midlands and North has nothing to do with their stated aim of marching in triumphantly. It revolves around depressing the turnout. If turnout goes up it's a big concern for them.

Cummings is not the Tory operation (hes been sidelined) but hes concerned.

They will portray a cocky outer image, and no doubt some MPs will believe it.

Cummings has not been sidelined. He’s very much acting within the Tory apparatus

 

[summerisle]

The waste of space repeating the ridiculous 'promise' of an extra 50,000 nurses.

 

[Socrates]

I reckon Labour will get the numbers for a minority government with the SNP backing them up.

Many observers are underestimating the effect all those voters that have registered over the last few weeks.

And despite the Facebook dark ads and misinformation in mainstream media, independent media is reaching far more than those who are viewing this campaign through traditional eyes.

For example, Stormzy, Lowkey, KSI and Raheem Stirling have come out in the last week to urge their followers to register and to vote Corbyn and Labour.

Now, quite a few members on here might not have heard of any or all of the first 3 names but between them they have over 100 million followers on many platforms, many of them in the UK. Followers who will take the words of their idols very seriously.

More and more of these modern idols who are from the worst affected parts of this country and are going to come out in favour of the Labour manifesto in the run up to the election and those poll numbers will shorten a little but nowhere near as much as reality.

And who can the Tories offer? Alan Sugar and Boris Johnson's dad. How long will it be before Jim Davidson is wheeled out?

The Tories are a dying force and their dirty tactics are being exposed as much as the fact they have nothing to offer other than the promise to metaphorically throw the country off a cliff.

And everyone knows, as John Major put it: "The NHS is as safe in the hands of Johnson, Gove, Raab and co as a hamster is in a cage with a hungry python."

Corbyn can be quite the wet lettuce at times but at least he's offering hope and has policies to match it.

Johnson's offer is that it will be a little bit worse than it is now, at best, but it will probably be a lot worse...but Brexit.

 

[orly]

I'll add Dave, their plan to win in the Midlands and North has nothing to do with their stated aim of marching in triumphantly. It revolves around depressing the turnout. If turnout goes up it's a big concern for them.

Cummings is not the Tory operation (hes been sidelined) but hes concerned.

They will portray a cocky outer image, and no doubt some MPs will believe it.

lol

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Do politicians break their promises once in government? What the evidence says

Research from around the world shows that UK leaders are actually better at putting their pledges into action when they win office than voters think.

theconversation.com

 

[zzr45]

For example, Stormzy, Lowkey, KSI and Raheem Stirling have come out in the last week to urge their followers to register and to vote Corbyn and Labour.

Now, quite a few members on here might not have heard of any or all of the first 3 names but between them they have over 100 million followers on many platforms, many of them in the UK. Followers who will take the words of their idols very seriously.

About 6 of those 100 million followers are old enough to vote.

 

[davek]

Aaaaahahahahahahaha

???

 

[davek]

As I've said a couple of days ago, behind the scenes they are concerned.

In a broader sense (and I wrote it up here right at the start of the election) they feel very uneasy about Corbyn. They have no idea why hes so popular and it makes them very uneasy. None of their attack lines that they think ought to work do.

Whatever front you see from their lackeys on the news, in a broad sense they're uneasy, and privately the last few days has brought added to that.

It'll be interesting to see what a clutch of weekend polls say. If the Tory lead settles at or near 7% to 8% then we'll see a massive wave of Tory panic assaults. They fear that Johnson (even without putting himself front and centre for interview) has underlined what a calamity it;d be beyond Brexit to have him in control of government.

He's a massive liability for them, and he remains so even if they try keep him out of major tv interviews, as he proved yesterday in that LBC interview. He's shockingly out of touch with reality and has no ability to 'stoop to conquer'.

 

[evilwebby]

Are you a Tory by any chance? I'm guessing so after reading your "life advice" post from yesterday.

You're perceptive.

 

[DanEFC92]

Pathetic

 

[gonetomorrow]

Pathetic

Oh goody. This'll give Johnson the opportunity to come over all Churchillian - this sceptred isle, common values, no stone unturned etc etc.
Everything is falling into place for the Bullingdon boy.

 

[evilwebby]

They were badly out last time in their conventional model, but the MRP was close because it showed a racially different toppling figure to other pollsters and was massively out of line with other predictors. It was also done much closer to the election (most of the field work for this began over 3 weeks before the election was due).

To be honest the numbers were not so striking this time. They stacked up with Britain Elects and Electoral calculus, who on the day it was released actually revised the seat prediction for the tories downwards and labour upwards.

That is the trend here. The question is really going to be how far that trend continues.

the top line figure of 11% already looks well out to me. Consecutive polls have shown the lead to be around the 7% mark currently. If that were to bet in to the MRP model it's unlikely the tories could form a minority, never mind majority government.

I understand they will run it again next week, this will likely be closer.

It is my observation that the polling gap always tends to narrow during a campaign whichever way around it is. The 2017 election had the Tories 2.4% ahead in the popular vote, so "just" a 7% lead this time around would likely put them in with a comfortable majority. Also, despite their perception of the parties, history shows that voters tend weight the strengths of their leaders heavily on polling day. In this regard, Johnson is well ahead of Corbyn, something that badly undermined the Tories last time around when the more people saw Theresa May on the campaign trail the less they like her.

 

[tsubaki]

Pathetic

Completely pathetic that - anyone would think he hadn't been all over TV yesterday evening making dodgy political points.