Current Affairs The General Election

[tsubaki]

Apparently the head of Hindu's has said he's also racist against Indians because (from what I could see) they had an opinion on Kashmir (namely that India ought to follow international law) and that they talk about Islamophobia. It seems an incredible conclusion to draw and I'd imagine one most will draw.

The head of the Sikh organisation has weighed in and said Labour (and I think) the Conservatives are neither anti-semitism nor islamophobic and the main prejudice is currently not towards either group )who get too much attention) but in fact towards Sikhs.

As someone who considers themselves quite vehemently anti-racist I can only say the whole episode is a farce and will not reflect well with voters. Racism isn't a competition and point scoring.

Anil Bhanot isn't the head of anything, he is one of the directors of the Hindu Council UK (and not a priest).

 

[peteblue]

Just a couple of questions Pete.
What makes you think the election is won? And why do you believe Corbyn is a liability? This is a man who added 4 million votes to Labour at the last election. How would you define liability?

Is the truth more, that he is rather the bogeyman to conservatives, who can't seem to grasp why he's so popular and how he seems to confound their polling expectations during election cycles?

I can completely understand why you want to see the back of him, but that's very different to making some of the assumptions above.

I spent many years looking at data and trends in the progress of large projects. I have a nose for which way things are going. Daily polls mean little. It’s the trend that tells you everything. At the last election the Tories sort of muddled about in a horizontal line before the dip as Corbyn took off. Labour started low and continually grew. This time is different, whatever gain Labour makes, Boris is doing the same and maintaining a healthy difference. To me, and it’s only my opinion, it’s over, Boris has won and with a healthy majority. I may well be wrong and if I am many of you will enjoy telling me, but honestly I doubt it......

 

[catcherintherye]

I spent many years looking at data and trends in the progress of large projects. I have a nose for which way things are going. Daily polls mean little. It’s the trend that tells you everything. At the last election the Tories sort of muddled about in a horizontal line before the dip as Corbyn took off. Labour started low and continually grew. This time is different, whatever gain Labour makes, Boris is doing the same and maintaining a healthy difference. To me, and it’s only my opinion, it’s over, Boris has won and with a healthy majority. I may well be wrong and if I am many of you will enjoy telling me, but honestly I doubt it......

I appreciate the answer.

Would you not accept that Corbyn has added millions of votes to the Labour Party and in truth the 3 elections that preceded him were indicative of a party in serious decline?

As for the trends I do too. What I see in this election was the continual rise of Labour (as we saw in 2017)and in the last 2 weeks that then became Con dipping and Labour rising. Separate polls today have shown the cons declining and Labour rising. It's very early days, but if this isn't reversed there will be concern from Conservative HQ.

One poll had Labour within 7, one had Labour closing 7 points to 11. We are very close to Hung Parliament territory.

As you will know, the polls were out, even at the end, by anywhere from 4-7 points last election. They are not modelling on 2017 turnout (which seems bizarre, as more people have registered than in 2017, which was treated as a freak one off). If the 2017 modelling were applied it;s around a 6-8 point swing to Labour. You plug such numbers into the polls currently, and we are very close to neck and neck. With 2 weeks to go.

As I've said I could be miles wrong. A couple of weeks back I said I'd hammer into the over on Labour at 196 seats. As things stand things look very close but if the Tories don't turn momentum around things will get very interesting.

I could be wrong again, but happy to stand behind certain predictions I've made too.

Either way, it feels a very live election to me, and Corbyn has been a major asset for Labour. Had they polled 2005-15 (pre Corbyn) levels they'd have been trounced by May and in all likelihood Johnson.

 

[summerisle]

Apparently the head of Hindu's has said he's also racist against Indians because (from what I could see) they had an opinion on Kashmir (namely that India ought to follow international law) and that they talk about Islamophobia. It seems an incredible conclusion to draw and I'd imagine one most will draw.

The head of the Sikh organisation has weighed in and said Labour (and I think) the Conservatives are neither anti-semitism nor islamophobic and the main prejudice is currently not towards either group )who get too much attention) but in fact towards Sikhs.

As someone who considers themselves quite vehemently anti-racist I can only say the whole episode is a farce and will not reflect well with voters. Racism isn't a competition and point scoring.

 

[peteblue]

I appreciate the answer.

Would you not accept that Corbyn has added millions of votes to the Labour Party and in truth the 3 elections that preceded him were indicative of a party in serious decline?

As for the trends I do too. What I see in this election was the continual rise of Labour (as we saw in 2017)and in the last 2 weeks that then became Con dipping and Labour rising. Separate polls today have shown the cons declining and Labour rising. It's very early days, but if this isn't reversed there will be concern from Conservative HQ.

One poll had Labour within 7, one had Labour closing 7 points to 11. We are very close to Hung Parliament territory.

As you will know, the polls were out, even at the end, by anywhere from 4-7 points last election. They are not modelling on 2017 turnout (which seems bizarre, as more people have registered than in 2017, which was treated as a freak one off). If the 2017 modelling were applied it;s around a 6-8 point swing to Labour. You plug such numbers into the polls currently, and we are very close to neck and neck. With 2 weeks to go.

As I've said I could be miles wrong. A couple of weeks back I said I'd hammer into the over on Labour at 196 seats. As things stand things look very close but if the Tories don't turn momentum around things will get very interesting.

I could be wrong again, but happy to stand behind certain predictions I've made too.

Either way, it feels a very live election to me, and Corbyn has been a major asset for Labour. Had they polled 2005-15 (pre Corbyn) levels they'd have been trounced by May and in all likelihood Johnson.

But this is not the Corbyn of 2017, there is no Theresa May, there’s no festivals to attend and get everyone singing his name, it’s cold and wet and people are looking at the detail, not the giveaways. They are also completely fed up with Parliament (Corbyn and Swinson and Sturgeons little group) getting in the way of Brexit. You may not think so but I do. Corbyn is now a liability. His Brexit stance is ludicrous and it’s pointless trying to defend it because people have already made up their minds. His giveaways this time have been seen for what they are, a bribe. He’s tried all his little tricks from 2017, but Boris has matched them and effectively shot his fox. He even mentioned fox hunting in his manifesto when there is no mention within the Tory one. He is fighting for scraps and I fear that Labour may never recover.......

 

[davek]

But this is not the Corbyn of 2017, there is no Theresa May, there’s no festivals to attend and get everyone singing his name, it’s cold and wet and people are looking at the detail, not the giveaways. They are also completely fed up with Parliament (Corbyn and Swinson and Sturgeons little group) getting in the way of Brexit. You may not think so but I do. Corbyn is now a liability. His Brexit stance is ludicrous and it’s pointless trying to defend it because people have already made up their minds. His giveaways this time have been seen for what they are, a bribe. He’s tried all his little tricks from 2017, but Boris has matched them and effectively shot his fox. He even mentioned fox hunting in his manifesto when there is no mention within the Tory one. He is fighting for scraps and I fear that Labour may never recover.......

...I'd say that's something your lot are going to have to worry about. Labour have a massive ground offensive and will get their voters out. The gammons who have indicated they'll bend this time to your racist leader because of Brexit? Dont bank on those blowhards to get down the polling station.

An horrific winter's day will do nicely.

 

[peteblue]

...I'd say that's something your lot are going to have to worry about. Labour have a massive ground offensive and will get their voters out. The gammons who have indicated they'll bend this time to your racist leader because of Brexit? Dont bank on those blowhards to get down the polling station.

An horrific winter's day will do nicely.

I read that 90% of Tories will definitely vote versus about 70% for Labour. You are old enough to know that typically Labour supporters do not turn out in bad weather......

 

[davek]

I read that 90% of Tories will definitely vote versus about 70% for Labour. You are old enough to know that typically Labour supporters do not turn out in bad weather......

Mus be true then.

 

[peteblue]

Mus be true then.

it may not be, and others on here may well remember better than I, but it was always a truism that Labour turned out in the summer and the nice weather, but that Tories turned out whatever the temperature or precipitation.....

 

[catcherintherye]

But this is not the Corbyn of 2017, there is no Theresa May, there’s no festivals to attend and get everyone singing his name, it’s cold and wet and people are looking at the detail, not the giveaways. They are also completely fed up with Parliament (Corbyn and Swinson and Sturgeons little group) getting in the way of Brexit. You may not think so but I do. Corbyn is now a liability. His Brexit stance is ludicrous and it’s pointless trying to defend it because people have already made up their minds. His giveaways this time have been seen for what they are, a bribe. He’s tried all his little tricks from 2017, but Boris has matched them and effectively shot his fox. He even mentioned fox hunting in his manifesto when there is no mention within the Tory one. He is fighting for scraps and I fear that Labour may never recover.......

I'd say May performed better at the debates than Johnson. The one big thing Johnson has avoided is a dementia tax issue. That was a horrible policy, handled horribly.

I actually agree with you on Brexit, it has been a mess getting to the Brexit policy and in truth while they will win some retainers back, it's a problem for me still. Lots around Corbyn haven't always grasped Labour leavers will be a key voter demographic in this election.

That was the big risk of he election too. That Johnson could frame it as people v parliament with him on the side of the people. I don't think he has played this card as effective as he could have done. I also think his offer on the manifesto is bland, cautious and misses a big opportunity. I was very fearful of a big offer as he had suggested to the procinves. This (allied to Labour's Brexit stance) would have proven challenging.

As for the giveaway, maybe, but I think the manifesto is going down quite well. People are desperate for a change and wants lots of reform. They want 350m a day into the NHS!

If it's all going so badly for Labour, why would you say they are continually picking up in the polls?

The final line I disagree with. If Corbyn goes and more broadly if his/our section of the party lose the argument and we are replaced by an explicitly pro-Remain party leader, it will be a major problem for Labour, potential the end of it. The one thing they've had with Corbyn is someone who has tried to argue for the need to respect the referendum result, often to intense pressure in the party. Had he not, the election wold have been more difficult.

If we get another Blairite we will the game way as Change Uk (remember them?)

 

[davek]

it may not be, and others on here may well remember better than I, but it was always a truism that Labour turned out in the summer and the nice weather, but that Tories turned out whatever the temperature or precipitation.....

In the days before people had cars or postal ballots!

Voting is down to one thing these days: how arsed you are about voting. My guess is that hundreds of thousands of gammons who scream blue murder over "Juss Get Brexit Dun" wont shift themselves out of the ale house or their own homes on December 12. People like that never do.

 

[catcherintherye]

I read that 90% of Tories will definitely vote versus about 70% for Labour. You are old enough to know that typically Labour supporters do not turn out in bad weather......

This sounds the modelling.

I think this is dubious though Pete. Age as opposed to class is a key differentiator on voting lines now.

In this election, I do think older people are far more likely to be put off by dark, rain, ice etc than younger people.

I think to my grandma, who will never go out when it's dark. I consider my friends, who some will only go out when it's dark!

These are some of the assumptions which could backfire come the election.

 

[peteblue]

In the days before people had cars or postal ballots!

Voting is down to one thing these days: how arsed you are about voting. My guess is that hundreds of thousands of gammons who scream blue murder over "Juss Get Brexit Dun" wont shift themselves out of the ale house or their own homes on December 12. People like that never do.

I’ll be there......I’ll close the pub if I have to.......

 

[summerisle]

But this is not the Corbyn of 2017, there is no Theresa May, there’s no festivals to attend and get everyone singing his name, it’s cold and wet and people are looking at the detail, not the giveaways. They are also completely fed up with Parliament (Corbyn and Swinson and Sturgeons little group) getting in the way of Brexit. You may not think so but I do. Corbyn is now a liability. His Brexit stance is ludicrous and it’s pointless trying to defend it because people have already made up their minds. His giveaways this time have been seen for what they are, a bribe. He’s tried all his little tricks from 2017, but Boris has matched them and effectively shot his fox. He even mentioned fox hunting in his manifesto when there is no mention within the Tory one. He is fighting for scraps and I fear that Labour may never recover.......

Anybody would think that *Johnson had not voted nine times against 'getting Brexit done' ; memories of a goldfish some people.

 

[peteblue]

This sounds the modelling.

I think this is dubious though Pete. Age as opposed to class is a key differentiator on voting lines now.

In this election, I do think older people are far more likely to be put off by dark, rain, ice etc than younger people.

I think to my grandma, who will never go out when it's dark. I consider my friends, who some will only go out when it's dark!

These are some of the assumptions which could backfire come the election.

never underestimate the older person.....