Tories to hold under 100 seats to Labour’s 468, says exclusive poll
Desperate Conservatives cannot see a path to victory as MRP survey of 15,000 people suggests even Rishi Sunak’s seat is at risk
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ILLUSTRATION BY TONY BELL
Caroline Wheeler
and
Tim Shipman
Saturday March 30 2024, 6.00pm, The Sunday Times
Rishi Sunak’s Easter message hailed the start of spring: the season of hope, rebirth and renewal. Delivered after a damaging few weeks, he welcomed the “chance to pause and reflect”. But as he hurtles towards a general election, a new mega poll offers little hope he can resurrect his party’s electoral fortunes.
The seat-by-seat analysis shows Tory prospects have hit a new record low and they are on track for their worst election result, winning fewer than 100 seats. Labour would win 468, giving Sir Keir Starmer’s party a whopping 286-seat majority.
The 15,000-person MRP poll, conducted by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain, puts Labour on 45 per cent of the vote share with a 19-point lead over the Conservatives, up three points from the campaign group’s previous poll at the end of last year. The Tories are on track to win just 98 seats, with none in Scotland or Wales. Undecided voters were not accounted for in the survey but represented about 15 per cent of those asked, which is at the lower end of most polls. The Tories are pinning their hopes on winning them over when the country finally goes to the polls.
The forecast even suggests the prime minister is at risk of losing his own constituency, the new Richmond & Northallerton seat, to Labour, with his lead less than 2.5 percentage points. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, has a one-point lead over the Liberal Democrats in his new seat of Godalming & Ash.
The poll will reignite efforts by those plotting to topple the prime minister.
