Current Affairs The Conservative Party

[tsubaki]

It's as if William Travis, James Bowie and Davy Crockett fought one another at the Alamo, and not Santa Ana. If it's hopeless, you might as well get your innings in. It's not like there's anything to lose.

The notion that the Tories would fracture and Reform would more than double its present polling numbers seems more than a little delusional. Of course, I might have said the same thing about the Whigs in 1854, right before the passage of the Kansas-Nebraska Act. I don't see this one rising to quite that level, in the sense that I don't expect British citizens to engage in fights in the streets over immigration policy.

I will also admit to some skepticism that there's 20% general support for a populist, anti-immigration party with Farage as the power broker behind a figurehead.

Seeing as the region is in the news again, another historical parallel would be Titus' siege of Jerusalem in 69-70 AD where the Jews split into three factions and fought each other even whilst besieged. The legions waited outside until someone won, then stormed the city - whilst many of the people responsible ran off and hid atop a mountain for a while, until reality caught up with them.

As for Reform, they are just systemic opposition for Tory voters to safely defect to. I've no doubt they would get to 20% or even 30% in the polls, but the moment it mattered (as it did in 2019) they'd be put back in the box and everyone would be told it was ok to vote for whoever the Tory leader that represents real change would be. Hacks should really be sued for claiming they are a real political party.

 

[Martin Alvito]

Seeing as the region is in the news again, another historical parallel would be Titus' siege of Jerusalem in 69-70 AD where the Jews split into three factions and fought each other even whilst besieged. The legions waited outside until someone won, then stormed the city - whilst many of the people responsible ran off and hid atop a mountain for a while, until reality caught up with them.

As for Reform, they are just systemic opposition for Tory voters to safely defect to. I've no doubt they would get to 20% or even 30% in the polls, but the moment it mattered (as it did in 2019) they'd be put back in the box and everyone would be told it was ok to vote for whoever the Tory leader that represents real change would be. Hacks should really be sued for claiming they are a real political party.

I'm inferring that you think at least one of the following:
a) incumbency advantage is nonexistent in the UK (if so, Gary King would like to have a word with you)
b) conservative voting behavior in the UK is media-driven, and the media/powers that be think a total rotation of Tory faces is in the party's best long-term interest

I'm not sure I buy the latter, seeing how data on UK trust in the media shows similar levels of skepticism (50/50 trust levels) across party ID and the usual demographic categories. I get it in the sense that you're observing media-driven effects on policy preferences in polls, and people spouting talking points. I would suggest this has a much greater effect on policy outcomes than it does on voting behavior.

Ronald Reagan's question, "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" is reductionist, and probably less true as a driver of voting behavior than it once was, but any party whose base has inflation on core purchases outstripping wage increases for some time is still likely to get killed at the polls. In a nutshell, there's a reason Ford and Carter both were one-termers, and Wilson both regained and lost power to the Tories in the '70s. It's also how Biden can lose a referendum on democracy in America, if he isn't careful.

I like the historical parallel. Misperception of likely outcomes is one of the relatively few things conflict scholars agree is a necessary condition for war, whether they're of the institutionalist or psychological persuasion. This is one reason it's dangerous to give nimrods the commander-in-chief power.

It could follow that BoJo, Farage and their backers are so stupid they think the situation is recoverable.

 

[Haydn]

Maybe a simplistic view of things but …

The money being ploughed into this Rwanda debacle (not to mention the hours of work put in already wasted), would it not be more logical to use that money to fund proper immigration centres and employ staff to actually process claims for asylum much quicker .. thus reducing the need to place people in temporary accommodation for months and months at a time and at great cost to the tax payer, not to mention the traumatic experience these poor people have to go through. A system where asylum claims are dealt with quickly and legally would surely benefit everybody involved.

The biggest lie of all, is that it’s being done as a practical deterrent to those crossing in the boats. Oh yeah, plus twaddle and waffle, something, something, disrupt the business model of the evil people smugglers.

Regular Deterrent A) crossing numerous countries, potentially on foot, at risk of being ripped off, victimised, robbed of all posessions, topped off by an expensive sea crossing that may end up costing you your life.

Super Improved Deterrent B) all the above, plus a miniscule chance of being Rwanda’d.

It’s just sick, but expensive theatre. Dreamt up by ghoulish Tory imbeciles and sold disingenuously by their media mates, as a diversion from their abject failure on everything else.

Keep looking at the evil small boat invasion suckers !

 

[Kurt.]

The biggest lie of all, is that it’s being done as a practical deterrent to those crossing in the boats. Oh yeah, plus twaddle and waffle, something, something, disrupt the business model of the evil people smugglers.

Regular Deterrent A) crossing numerous countries, potentially on foot, at risk of being ripped off, victimised, robbed of all posessions, topped off by an expensive sea crossing that may end up costing you your life.

Super Improved Deterrent B) all the above, plus a miniscule chance of being Rwanda’d.

It’s just sick, but expensive theatre. Dreamt up by ghoulish Tory imbeciles and sold disingenuously by their media mates, as a diversion from their abject failure on everything else.

Keep looking at the evil small boat invasion suckers !

The thing is… if they had safe and legal routes to the uk it would be the biggest deterrent of all to those risking their lives in small boats.

 

[Haydn]

The thing is… if they had safe and legal routes to the uk it would be the biggest deterrent of all to those risking their lives in small boats.

Yeah but, we have a slight problem with that solution.

If that was to happen, there wouldn’t be a “small boat invasion” to demonise and we’d have to invent another enemy for you to hate.

People might then wake up and start complaining that every public service they depend on was knackered, ask where the money’s all gone and all sorts of awkward and unhelpful stuff.

Worse still, they might even finally see through our brilliant levelling up wheeze, building 40 new hospitals, £300 mill a week for the NHS, fixing the crumbly schools and the rest of the stuff that was never going to happen.

No, sorry. That’s a non-starter.

 

[Nightman]

Hugo Keith might have a posh name and went to a fancy school and has a fantastic career and no doubt food shops at Waitrose, with M&S on the weekends... but at least I know the difference between specific and Pacific.

 

[Daveysgingerlovechild]

Hmmm, Telegraph running several favourable articles, pinion pieces and news reports about Farage returning to the Tories/what a top bloke he is.

I think we can all see what awful crap stained sink hole they are looking to go down. Anything they think will get them power aligned with an increasing lurch rightwards really isn't a good look.

 

[Eggs]

……and the Tory Right Wing Extremists are suggesting Sunak pulls his Rwanda Bill and replace it with something stronger.

Watch this space.

 

[mahermi1]

Desperation stakes now anything is possible, Johnson back, Farage into the fray maybe they'll dig Adolph up...

 

[Rita_Poon]

I hope they plumb for farage, a serial loser and magnet for milkshake.

 

[Nightman]

Hmmm, Telegraph running several favourable articles, pinion pieces and news reports about Farage returning to the Tories/what a top bloke he is.

I think we can all see what awful crap stained sink hole they are looking to go down. Anything they think will get them power aligned with an increasing lurch rightwards really isn't a good look.

Sensible policitian (cough) and centre right (cough, cough).

Give the public what they want!

 

[Goat]

 

[Spadge Vernacular]

 

[Walken]

Desperation stakes now anything is possible, Johnson back, Farage into the fray maybe they'll dig Adolph up...

That's the problem they have now after adopting the same right wing populism that the republicans did with trump, the only thing that will remove their influence is death. Even then another equally morally bankrupt individual will see the blueprint

 

[Charlie Sweet]

Desperation stakes now anything is possible, Johnson back, Farage into the fray maybe they'll dig Adolph up...

God. Imagine Nigel Farage coming back into the fray. Can't think of anyone that'd love that save for the odd @NathDogg and his pals