Current Affairs The 2020 United States Presidential Election

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PA is his hardest hill. If there are around 1.4m votes left to count, he probabaly needs to win by around 71-72%. I don't know where they have left to count in PA.

One thing worth noting, was in nearby Wisconsin he seemed to win 75-80% of returnee ballots. I don't know if it's equivalent seats left. How much of the early voting is based in cities V suburbs is a big question.

It's doable though, but a big hill.

on the map, if you click into PA, then Philadelphia County, it looks like they have only counted half of Philadelphia's votes so far, where Biden already has 74% of the vote.

Still think 700k looks a large swing across the state
 
it’s going to be a lot closer than thought, and will go on for a long time after the votes are counted.
Looking at Biden I wonder if he will still be around at the end of it.
 
A few broader thoughts as I am posting a bit on the specifics.

The election is very open still. The fact it is, is a failing of Biden. To be leading the poll of polls by 8.4 going in to election day, and be going tgis life and death with Trump is a poor show. Polling is really out on this one as well. Like maybe 3 times as out as it was in 2016.

Trump is a campaigning collosus to be honest, To defy polls, especially outside of polling error to this degree is some going.

The other point, is it looks like Biden will win the popular vote by around 2% ish. If you would have told me yesterday, he wins the popular vote by 2% I'd have said Biden was done. Trump won the EC comfortably with a similar margin in 2016 and in truth the EC seemed to have shifted more to Trump. I felt if Trump got within 4, he would win, so you have seen something of a reargaurd action.

It's very hard to call, as you don't really know what ballots are due to be counted, from what areas etc, and the big margins of 87-99% for example is much too wide. As things stand, from what I can see, Biden has the slenderest leads in Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. This gets him 270. In general it look like early ballots will break for him, but it only needs a tiny break for Trump in just one of the above, and then Trump is in posession. He still has a shout at Georgia and Pennsylvania too.

So you have 5 states, all very much in play. Thats before any challenges that may occur in Florida or other tight races. It's probably the tightest race I've seen, and the most chaotic, which was certainly not the plan for Biden.
 
People who are on the verge of winning or at least think they are don't start screaming about a fix.

Biden is the candidate who is sitting most comfortably at the moment.

Thinking more about it, Trump's speech didn't match with his short odds during that moment. Everybody was in shock at that moment. And he suddenly cried foul. Almost sounded like he knew it's going to turn around?

They spend incredible amounts of money researching everything. Both sides will know pretty accurately what’s left to come in and there’s a reason trump doesn’t want it counted. (I hope haha)
 
The disbelief of a potential Trump win has just been superseded by a clip of Ress-Mogg actually walking into Downing Street as a minister.
What a mess our 2 countries are....
 
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