Biden supporters' unbridled enthusiasm baffles me. Have they seen the early returns in key battleground states?
The election hinges on 7 states, the Sunbelt 3 (FL, NC, AZ) and the Rust Belt 4 (PA, MI, WI, MN). If Trump wins all 3 of the Sunbelt 3, then he needs to win only 1 of the 4 Rust Belts to win the electoral college (please remember that the popular vote counts for as much as the dancing penguin vote).
Early returns are not allowed to give results by candidate but do provide numbers of votes by party registration, a good indicator of ultimate tallies. Biden needs to be ahead in FL by at least 650K votes going into Nov 3 to overcome the red wave on election day (most Republicans vote in person on ED). At end of day today, Dems lead by less than 400K, and Republicans are gaining fast. Early numbers are almost as bad for Biden in NC & FL. As much as it ain't over 'til it's over, for Biden it's getting dark early in the Sunbelt 3.
That means Trump has to pick off only 1 of the RB 4, and he already is posting better than expected numbers in MI & WI. Biden's monumental gaffe about ending the oil industry probably just torpedoed his chances in PA. Biden's chances of going 4 for 4 in the Rust Belt were a longshot to begin with. Now they're lotteryesque.
To quote the immortal wisdom of Joaquín Andújar, "You can sum up baseball in one word: you never know." Same is true for politics. But it's looking very bad for Biden right now.