Current Affairs The 2020 United States Presidential Election

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What's everyone's take on the early-voter tallies? My initial thoughts were that this is good for Dems, but I was talking to my friend and they were worried that these early-voting numbers might make people complacent on election day, and also that the typical voter-turnout stats usually show that (elderly) Republicans tend to vote (perhaps comprising a significant number of early votes), whereas Dems are more unpredictable. The numbers in Texas are crazy and I want to be excited by them, but the margins in key states are razor-thin, so what does this early voter-turnout actually mean for this important election? Your thoughts?
 
verreauxi said:
What's everyone's take on the early-voter tallies? My initial thoughts were that this is good for Dems, but I was talking to my friend and they were worried that these early-voting numbers might make people complacent on election day, and also that the typical voter-turnout stats usually show that (elderly) Republicans tend to vote (perhaps comprising a significant number of early votes), whereas Dems are more unpredictable. The numbers in Texas are crazy and I want to be excited by them, but the margins in key states are razor-thin, so what does this early voter-turnout actually mean for this important election? Your thoughts?
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High turnout generally for Dems. They tend to suffer more with low turnout.

It's doubly good, because people are voting when Biden is 8-10 points up. Even if Trump turns it around to get it sub 5 (which is what he needs to be in with even a glimmer of hope) 25% or so of the electorate have already voted so hes against time. I.E people who have voted Biden, may have changed their ind and swung back to Trump on election day and it's too late.

Some suggestions Dems are +30 on returned votes. So the more that vote eartly, the worse.

Adminstriatively it makes it a nightmare on election night though. Votes on the day get counted first, so ixpect to see certain places looking close or pro Trump then get flipped. Nothing dubious about it, just a reflection of the different times people voted. It would be dubious if that didn't happen.
 
catcherintherye said:
High turnout generally for Dems. They tend to suffer more with low turnout.

It's doubly good, because people are voting when Biden is 8-10 points up. Even if Trump turns it around to get it sub 5 (which is what he needs to be in with even a glimmer of hope) 25% or so of the electorate have already voted so hes against time. I.E people who have voted Biden, may have changed their ind and swung back to Trump on election day and it's too late.

Some suggestions Dems are +30 on returned votes. So the more that vote eartly, the worse.

Adminstriatively it makes it a nightmare on election night though. Votes on the day get counted first, so ixpect to see certain places looking close or pro Trump then get flipped. Nothing dubious about it, just a reflection of the different times people voted. It would be dubious if that didn't happen.
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Mail-ins are counted last, but in-person early voting will be counted along with those on election day (at least that is how it works in NC). A lot of the early voting is in person, not mail in.
 
verreauxi said:
What's everyone's take on the early-voter tallies? My initial thoughts were that this is good for Dems, but I was talking to my friend and they were worried that these early-voting numbers might make people complacent on election day, and also that the typical voter-turnout stats usually show that (elderly) Republicans tend to vote (perhaps comprising a significant number of early votes), whereas Dems are more unpredictable. The numbers in Texas are crazy and I want to be excited by them, but the margins in key states are razor-thin, so what does this early voter-turnout actually mean for this important election? Your thoughts?
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I'm with @catcherintherye on this. Not because I lean left but because it's what recent history tells us on both the state and national level. Further, it's why the GOP, especially in the South, is so adamant about restricting voting rights and/or engaging in voter suppression.

@verreauxi has a legitimate concern though. Complacency is always something to guard against.

Going back to the phones soon but hardly any letdown in turnout since the weekend here in Texas. @RAFUH and North Carolina are blowing the doors off of the voting booths, too.
 
BlueTX said:
I'm with @catcherintherye on this. Not because I lean left but because it's what recent history tells us on both the state and national level. Further, it's why the GOP, especially in the South, is so adamant about restricting voting rights and/or engaging in voter suppression.

@verreauxi has a legitimate concern though. Complacency is always something to guard against.

Going back to the phones soon but hardly any letdown in turnout since the weekend here in Texas. @RAFUH and North Carolina are blowing the doors off of the voting booths, too.
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Unlike you, I can't take any credit for the turn out other than my own vote.

NC benefits from a Dem governor...who also determines the members of State Board of Elections... who has fought in state and federal court the more egregious voter suppression laws enacted by a GOP supermajority (thanks to gerrymandering) legislature.
 
Heard any interesting take on Morning Joe this morning, they had on James Carville who's ran democratic campaigns for years, including Bill Clinton's presidential runs. He says Biden needs to beat trump by more than 5% because if not trump will take it to the courts. I tend to agree, lets not let Trump steal this election, get out and vote.
 
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