Current Affairs Stocks and shares and stuff
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Some of that can be a bit distorted though because of the wild fluctuations during the pandemic
For instance West Texas Crude (wtic) plunged a lot but at around $80 we are now back to where we were prior to 2015
WTI Crude Oil Prices - 10 Year Daily Chart
Interactive chart showing the daily closing price for West Texas Intermediate (NYMEX) Crude Oil over the last 10 years. The prices shown are in U.S. dollars.
www.macrotrends.net
Meanwhile lumber went absolutely nuts last year, getting to a high over 1600 early in 2021, before moderating this year to around 600 recently - still higher than pre pandemic but not as crazy at the peak.
No core cpi is dead volatile.Some of that can be a bit distorted though because of the wild fluctuations during the pandemic
For instance West Texas Crude (wtic) plunged a lot but at around $80 we are now back to where we were prior to 2015
WTI Crude Oil Prices - 10 Year Daily Chart
Interactive chart showing the daily closing price for West Texas Intermediate (NYMEX) Crude Oil over the last 10 years. The prices shown are in U.S. dollars.
Meanwhile lumber went absolutely nuts last year, getting to a high over 1600 early in 2021, before moderating this year to around 600 recently - still higher than pre pandemic but not as crazy at the peak.
Just using cotton as an example. Was up 33% in 6 months to may 2018. Then fell 50% in the following 12 month.
Over 10 years it’s actually fallen over 50%.
Disinflation of around 2% a year.
Yeah I used to dabble in commodity markets until I realized I wasn’t plugged in enough to predict any of the large volatility swings!
Omicron and market sell-off: don’t be surprised if there’s more turbulence to come
Investors dumped assets en masse as news of the new COVID variant spread.
theconversation.com
Some of this is a bit silly to the point where I had to check his credentials.Omicron and market sell-off: don’t be surprised if there’s more turbulence to come
Investors dumped assets en masse as news of the new COVID variant spread.
‘If we exclude January and February as pre-pandemic months in most countries in 2020 (and exclude December 2021 since we don’t yet have data), it is striking to observe that 2020 was better in six out of nine months (the exceptions being March, June and September).’
Is it that absurd that 6/9 months were positive when he’s starting from March when markets had fallen 40%?
He seems to ignore the fact that markets are mostly forward looking. They tend to reflect expectations of the future rather than where we are right now. The only time they don’t is when new information comes out.
nikom court
Player Valuation: £20m
they wont let the markets go down too much,if at all.Omicron and market sell-off: don’t be surprised if there’s more turbulence to come
Investors dumped assets en masse as news of the new COVID variant spread.
they will just fire up the money printer to keep them artificially inflated!
we have omricron to deal with now,possibly more lockdowns,furlough,stimulus cheques etc
the money has to come from somewhere!
Scan read the thread and just bought $1000 worth of Omnicron Corp. Thanks for the info guys.
@mill do you get much involved with startups? The whole scene baffles the heck out of me at the moment. One org I'm associated with were boasting about a company working in the medtech space reaching "unicorn" status recently. Their valuation is around 45 times their revenue, and they're just a bog standard product company so not a platform that might be able to rapidly grow revenues once scale has been achieved. The whole space seems frothy as hell right now.
Not at all tbh. And it’s really not something I can talk about with any real authority.
The whole private asset space has grown massively over the last few years, certainly in comparison to public markets.
The weight of regulation on the public side of things has played a big part of it and companies are staying private for longer or choosing to stay private as there is plenty of capital available.
That flow of capital is one of the reasons why you are seeing high valuations. But to be honest it’s a reflection of monetary policy since the GFC which has pushed everyone up the risk spectrum searching for returns.
45x revenue is extreme. To give context, Tesla was 21x and that was ridiculous.
That ‘growth’ part of public markets is looking expensive. In a low *economic* growth environments those companies are at a premium, plus there are plenty of long term trends that support that idea, and market conditions can persist for a long time.
That being said, as policy is reversed it’s hard not to see a return to ‘normal’ market conditions. Higher growth, higher inflation, higher yields, higher productivity and more ‘creative destruction’. The extent of that destruction is what concerns me. We’ve been in a huge bull market for all asset prices, and as you see the money supply shrink over time (which will happen), it’s going to be a headwind for alot of assets before a new equilibrium is found.
We were starting to see signs of it pre the pandemic, and shorter, transitory factors aside, there’s not really been any structural change to prevent those trends (pace and direction of globalisation being an example) from persisting in the future.
TL
R markets are a little complacent. Expect more vol from here as the norm. And a few shocks along the way. Which isn’t a bad thing.
It does seem mad. There was over $300 billion raised by startups last year, with over 600 $100m+ rounds. It doesn't seem healthy for the sector as it just encourages the entrepreneurs to chase a quick payout rather than build a lasting business.Not at all tbh. And it’s really not something I can talk about with any real authority.
The whole private asset space has grown massively over the last few years, certainly in comparison to public markets.
The weight of regulation on the public side of things has played a big part of it and companies are staying private for longer or choosing to stay private as there is plenty of capital available.
That flow of capital is one of the reasons why you are seeing high valuations. But to be honest it’s a reflection of monetary policy since the GFC which has pushed everyone up the risk spectrum searching for returns.
45x revenue is extreme. To give context, Tesla was 21x and that was ridiculous.
That ‘growth’ part of public markets is looking expensive. In a low *economic* growth environments those companies are at a premium, plus there are plenty of long term trends that support that idea, and market conditions can persist for a long time.
That being said, as policy is reversed it’s hard not to see a return to ‘normal’ market conditions. Higher growth, higher inflation, higher yields, higher productivity and more ‘creative destruction’. The extent of that destruction is what concerns me. We’ve been in a huge bull market for all asset prices, and as you see the money supply shrink over time (which will happen), it’s going to be a headwind for alot of assets before a new equilibrium is found.
We were starting to see signs of it pre the pandemic, and shorter, transitory factors aside, there’s not really been any structural change to prevent those trends (pace and direction of globalisation being an example) from persisting in the future.
TL
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DuuuncanHadaPigeon
Player Valuation: £10m
Interesting, a very literal case of buy the rumour sell the news haha
It's a strange one. I do wonder what would have happened if the buy button hadn't been turned off.
I'm watching their DRS campaign with interest too, it should shine a light once and for all whether naked shorts are a real problem in the stock market.
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