Current Affairs Stocks and shares and stuff

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nikom court said:
no,its due to polish lorry drivers ?
real inflation is nearer 30%
when you are sitting in the dark this winter,have a think about it!
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No.
It’s because demand has increased as the economy has recovered following last year. In addition, supply chains have been disrupted. In addition, given inflation is measure y-o-y, there are baseline effects skewing the numbers.

That dynamic is causing squeezes in a number of areas which is inflationary, but likely transitory. In the same way as linked inflation and used car inflation has fallen after a spike when there was a supply squeeze.

To say inflation is the *cause* of the shocks we are seeing is just incorrect and illustrates a failure to understand the economic reality.

Inflation is the symptom. Not the cause.
 
mill said:
No.
It’s because demand has increased as the economy has recovered following last year. In addition, supply chains have been disrupted. In addition, given inflation is measure y-o-y, there are baseline effects skewing the numbers.

That dynamic is causing squeezes in a number of areas which is inflationary, but likely transitory. In the same way as linked inflation and used car inflation has fallen after a spike when there was a supply squeeze.

To say inflation is the *cause* of the shocks we are seeing is just incorrect and illustrates a failure to understand the economic reality.

Inflation is the symptom. Not the cause.
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60a93427cfa48.webp
 
mill said:
That’s all you’ve got? Memes?
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no,
i have empty shelves at the supermarket,
empty pumps at the petrol station
spiralling household energy prices
house prices entering a property bubble caused by money printing
worldwide stock markets in a bubble propped up by money printing
record levels of debt caused by money printing
rampant inflation caused by money printing

and the lot is about to come crashing down!
 
nikom court said:
no,
i have empty shelves at the supermarket,
empty pumps at the petrol station
spiralling household energy prices
house prices entering a property bubble caused by money printing
worldwide stock markets in a bubble propped up by money printing
record levels of debt caused by money printing
rampant inflation caused by money printing

and the lot is about to come crashing down!
Click to expand...
I agree we’ve seen asset price inflation since the GFC. It’s been beneficial to all assets (including crypto btw). But again, the things highlighted aren’t *due* to inflation.

Supermarkets aren’t empty because of inflation.
 
mill said:
Was due tbh.

I was thinking earlier that I’m probably the youngest of the generation that remembers the what markets were like before the GFC.

That’s a whole lot of market participants who only know the regime since. Low interest rates, low cost of capital, low vol, rising asset prices, subdued inflation.

It’ll be interesting to see how complacent people are and how they react to more ‘normal’ conditions.
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I ran the numbers from portfoliovisualizer to demonstrate how incredible the bull market has been since the GFC. This is, in terms of delivering risk adjusted return, the greatest bull market in history BY FAR.


All numbers are in relation to the US total stock market, which is 2/3rds of the global stock market anyway.

Total annualised monthly Sharpe Ratio since 1972: 0.45

Annualised monthly Sharpe Ratio 1982-2000 (the greatest ourtright bull market in history): 0.62

Current 3yr annualised monthly Sharpe Ratio: 0.93
Current 5yr annualised monthly Sharpe Ratio: 1.06
Current 10yr annualised monthly Sharpe Ratio: 1.04


That is just mind blowing.The last decade was far, far better than even the great 1980s/90s bull market for delivering excess return per unit of risk taken.

Basically, if you have only been investing in the last 10 years, you are likely to have a very very skewed view of risk vs return of the stock market, compared to how lousy the market really is. There has literally never been a better period to be a risk-on investor.

I would be astonished if, for the rest of my life, we ever see another decade so favourable again.
 
US inflation figures released,
the highest rate of inflation since 1990.
a staggering 40% of dollars in circulation were printed in the last 12 months!
their answer...we will print some more.
they cant stop because the stock market and economy will tank
next stop hyperinflation.
coming to our shores soon!
 
nikom court said:
US inflation figures released,
the highest rate of inflation since 1990.
a staggering 40% of dollars in circulation were printed in the last 12 months!
their answer...we will print some more.
they cant stop because the stock market and economy will tank
next stop hyperinflation.
coming to our shores next!
Click to expand...
It's not just US inflation, but the levels still seem very low compared to previous generations.

U.S. Inflation Rate | Historical Chart & Data

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. The Laspeyres formula is generally used.
www.macrotrends.net www.macrotrends.net
 
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