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Dylan said:
Everybodies saying it. "We've lost 5th. 5th is Villas" etc etc.






Lets look at what is left.
  • Everton 62 points
  • Aston Villa 59 points
As you can see, we are currently leading Villa by 3 points.

Lets assume Villa win both their games, that puts them on 65 points. For us to get by, that means a minimum of 4 points from our last two.

I am chalking 3 points up against Newcastle, they may be 'in-form' right now, but they still have a clueless moron with no tactical acumen in charge, pretty much relying on his players to pull him through.

Arsenal is where 5th will be won or lost. We come away from there with anything and we are in the UEFA again.






If this whole scenario comes about, the table looks like this:
  • Everton 66 points
  • Aston Villa 65 points
Goal difference won't matter, it is only 1 in Villa's favour right now, but their rampant goalscoring won't continue, they got their 15 against poor sides (and they only got two today because we bleedin' let them)

We will bag 5th and qualify, no question.

COME ON YOU BLUES!!!
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I'd have recently chalked up three points as well against Fulham, West Ham, & Birmingham and look at how that turned out. Your analysis is good but forgets one major part of the equation.

Our current form.

Sure, if we were playing like we were before the 2nd Fiorentina leg, I'd have said it's in the bag. In fact, we probably wouldn't be in this position as we'd have taken maximum points from two of the three I mentioned above. But we didn't. And there's a reason for that.

So, combine and "in-form" Newcastle and and "out of form" Everton, and it doesn't look near as easy.

We're gonna need some help from Wigan and/or West Ham I'm afraid.
 
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Wigan need a point for safety and they will be looking to secure that point as early as possible.
We are 3 points clear with two games left, its still in our own hands.
i think we can get a point at arsenal and beat newcastle.
we have made it difficult for ourselves but id still rather be in our position than villa's.
 
Personally I think Wigan will be a draw for Villa. I have old favorite Marcus Bent doing them in. I 'm not as confident getting a result at Arsenal but if we did that would be gravy. Time to stand up or shut up.
 
Whats all this Arsenal have nothing left to play for business? Unless i'm being stupid and looking at the table wrong they are 7 points behind Man U and Chelsea.

They play Derby tonight so a win see's them go into next weekend 4 points behind.

If Man U lose to West Ham like they seem to these days Arsenal will still have a chance of the title so they aint gonna take it easy agaisnt us.
 

Neiler said:
F.F.S if we dont beleive we can beat Arsenal and Newcastle we may as well just [Poor language removed]!

For christ sakes we are Everton!!!!
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thank you!
deathbyropeandglass said:
Whats all this Arsenal have nothing left to play for business? Unless i'm being stupid and looking at the table wrong they are 7 points behind Man U and Chelsea.

They play Derby tonight so a win see's them go into next weekend 4 points behind.

If Man U lose to West Ham like they seem to these days Arsenal will still have a chance of the title so they aint gonna take it easy agaisnt us.
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For Arsenal to win the league, they have to win all 3 of their remaining games, and manchester and chelsea each can't get more than 2 more points. arsenal are currently 16 behind manchester in goal difference, so the only way they can really win is if they win all their remaining games, and both chelsea and manchester fail to pick up 2 points from their next two matches, or either chelsea and manchester pick up 2 points, and they score enough goals to beat them on goal difference. obviously there's an outside chance of it happening. Maybe you're right that wenger will take the game seriously, as they do have an outside chance of getting one of the gauranteed champions league spots instead of a qualifier, but even so i doubt the players will have the same morale, we won't be facing the same arsenal side thats for sure.

Sim said:
But if you look at the current form guides:
Everton 14th
v
Arsenal 8th
Newcastle 2nd

Villa 6th
v
West Ham 17th
Wigan 15th

To keep 5th, we have to up and game and prove the form guides wrong, while Villa just need to keep doing what their doing. Take emotion out the equation and view it logically and I'd say even though we're 3 points above with 2 games to go, Villa just have that edge and I'd say are slight favourites to take it.
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you have to take the form guide with a grain of salt, arsenal's only wins in their last 5 have come against bolton and reading, newcastle have won a lot recently but they've all been against struggling teams, in fact i think all of their recent fixtures were fixtures we've won as well.

west ham scrapped a draw against us, surely they can do it again.
wigan are a point from safety, they have absolutely everything to play for with their next game after villa against manchester united, they pulled it off last year, i think they can make something happen if it means survival.

as you see, there are a lot of things that can happen for us to make 5th, we really just need one to happen. i think my explanation hasn't been too emotional, and it still shows we have a decent chance at getting 5th.
 
I think our chances are a little better than 50-50 to get 5th. West Ham and Wigan aren't Derby-Fulham last I checked. Wigan has quietly been playing well recently and West Ham well they always play their best against the good teams. I also think Villa is going to need all 6 pts to move ahead of us too.
 
Wigan will be all out to secure survival against Villa, in the knowledge that Manure will be fighting for the title against them
 

TX Bill said:
I'd have recently chalked up three points as well against Fulham, West Ham, & Birmingham and look at how that turned out. Your analysis is good but forgets one major part of the equation.

Our current form.

Sure, if we were playing like we were before the 2nd Fiorentina leg, I'd have said it's in the bag. In fact, we probably wouldn't be in this position as we'd have taken maximum points from two of the three I mentioned above. But we didn't. And there's a reason for that.

So, combine and "in-form" Newcastle and and "out of form" Everton, and it doesn't look near as easy.

We're gonna need some help from Wigan and/or West Ham I'm afraid.
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Looks like I nailed that one dead on.

I know, I know, a rarity. :P
 

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