Win at Burnley or Watford (Watford more likely, Burnley probably looking at scraping a draw) and we're in a better position.
As far as the run in goes I see it something like this:
Everton 27-25 - Winnable 5 Reasonable Prospect of Points 3 Unlikely to avoid Defeat (Liverpool, West Ham, Arsenal (unless critical)) 3
Brentford 29-30 - W 3 R 5 L 1 (Chelsea away)
Leeds 29-26 W 3 R 3 L 3 (Chelsea home, City home, Arsenal h)
Watford 29-22 W 6 R 0 L 3 (RS, City, Chelsea A)
Burnley 27-21 W 8 R 0 L 3 (City H, Spurs, West Ham A)
Norwich 29-17 W 2 R 5 L 1 (Man U A)
Treat games like Watford v Everton as winnable for either side. Home games against good sides as a possible result (draw?) and away games against the best 6-7 teams as a probable loss.
This kind of run in would produce a final table something like:
* Critical Head to Heads amongst the Bottom six indicated thus:
***Brentford 37
***Everton 36
***Burnley 33
**Leeds 32
****Watford 31
*Norwich 23
*Of course any big 6 pointer (e.g. Everton at Burnley or Watford) is crucial and if we lost both then we'd likely be very close to the drop.
Other big 6 Pointers include: Everton v Brentford, Watford v Brentford, Brentford v Leeds (final game), Watford v Leeds, Watford v Burnley, Norwich v Burnley