Kev The Rat
Player Valuation: £70m
Yet you wanted Martinez shot for maybe less?
I did too, but Koeman looks about as effective as that fraud, so he has to go.
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I did too, but Koeman looks about as effective as that fraud, so he has to go.
hktoffee
Birds of a feather flock together
CerberusFX
Player Valuation: £950k
?
I thought that, isn't the idea of moneyball to not spend money and to assemble the best/cheapest team possible based on stats?
ijjysmith
Calm
This.
People use the term to try and sound intelligent without actually having a clue what it means.
Possibly helpful, somewhat accurate explainer that no one will read:
*******
Moneyball started when people in baseball figured out that the things teams always thought were most important when building a team weren't as important as was once thought. Other, non-traditional stats predicted success better than the common stats that had been around for a century.
The Oakland A's were the first team to use these ideas to build a roster. They were one of the poorest teams in MLB, and were essentially forced to try these ideas as a way to compete after losing multiple All-Star players (think Lukaku) and legitimately having no money to replace them. Hence the "Moneyball" moniker.
Oakland couldn't afford players who got a lot of hits and home runs (scored goals), so they focused on players who drew a lot of walks and didn't strike out (maintained possession). It *kinda* worked, but it worked better when teams that could afford All-Stars started using it, too.
Using advanced statistics as a scouting component spread to other sports, and what started as Moneyball became known merely as analytics. Every team in American sports started using a combination of analytics and traditional scouting. You can no longer compete without both sides working together.
The whole idea is to identify statistics that accurately predict success, then find players with traits that align with those statistics. Then you run the numbers to confirm what your eyes are telling you.
Of course, we now have analytics in football, too, and everyone uses it as a tool to evaluate talent. Where it goes wrong is when you act like Oakland once did and ignore the most crucial components of the sport, in this case scoring goals.
******
Further reading:
One other thing happened when all these smart guys joined the ex-athletes in the front offices of these teams. They stopped viewing players as players and started viewing them as assets.
Player trading is now about their cost relative to their true market value and less about whether the team in question wants or needs them. So even if Everton didn't need Sandro, you still buy him because he's a productive 21-year old forward available for £5 million.
That's the piece of the puzzle the EPL in general have got spectacularly wrong. The money spent for production gained is completely out of whack.
*******
Moneyball started when people in baseball figured out that the things teams always thought were most important when building a team weren't as important as was once thought. Other, non-traditional stats predicted success better than the common stats that had been around for a century.
The Oakland A's were the first team to use these ideas to build a roster. They were one of the poorest teams in MLB, and were essentially forced to try these ideas as a way to compete after losing multiple All-Star players (think Lukaku) and legitimately having no money to replace them. Hence the "Moneyball" moniker.
Oakland couldn't afford players who got a lot of hits and home runs (scored goals), so they focused on players who drew a lot of walks and didn't strike out (maintained possession). It *kinda* worked, but it worked better when teams that could afford All-Stars started using it, too.
Using advanced statistics as a scouting component spread to other sports, and what started as Moneyball became known merely as analytics. Every team in American sports started using a combination of analytics and traditional scouting. You can no longer compete without both sides working together.
The whole idea is to identify statistics that accurately predict success, then find players with traits that align with those statistics. Then you run the numbers to confirm what your eyes are telling you.
Of course, we now have analytics in football, too, and everyone uses it as a tool to evaluate talent. Where it goes wrong is when you act like Oakland once did and ignore the most crucial components of the sport, in this case scoring goals.
******
Further reading:
One other thing happened when all these smart guys joined the ex-athletes in the front offices of these teams. They stopped viewing players as players and started viewing them as assets.
Player trading is now about their cost relative to their true market value and less about whether the team in question wants or needs them. So even if Everton didn't need Sandro, you still buy him because he's a productive 21-year old forward available for £5 million.
That's the piece of the puzzle the EPL in general have got spectacularly wrong. The money spent for production gained is completely out of whack.
CerberusFX
Player Valuation: £950k
David Moyes did moneyball then, plucking productive players on the cheap, what I'd give to see Arteta and Pienaar and Cahill and Baines all linking up together, we never had a great striker bar maybe one season with Yakubu but the rest especially Tim were productive and played a pressing game, still bottled it most of the time against the Sky boys but played some good stuff at times.
Not quite. He bargain shopped, as most teams do.
In baseball, the idea is to score more runs than your opponent. Oakland decided they'd instead just to try and not get out, figuring they'd eventually score runs that way due to the basic mechanics of the sport.
There's no equivalent in football, but it would have to be a radical departure from what we think we know about the sport to compare. Something like tiki-taka on steroids, only without incredible goal scorers up front, just guys who are really good at keeping possession.
CerberusFX
Player Valuation: £950k
If we got points for walking we'd be top of the league now but there's no home runs coming anytime soon. Oh god I'm trying to do baseball analogies lol
Yeah this is actually an easier explainer. Thanks to Cerberus for helping me get there.
Moneyball = Using a radical strategy to make up for a lack of resources and talent. Doesn't often work well in practice.
Analytics = The use of advanced, non-traditional statistics to aid in scouting. This is the practical application of the original Moneyball and everyone in every sport does it.
Moneyball = Using a radical strategy to make up for a lack of resources and talent. Doesn't often work well in practice.
Analytics = The use of advanced, non-traditional statistics to aid in scouting. This is the practical application of the original Moneyball and everyone in every sport does it.
So what are the club trying to do? We seem to be buying players with potential to improve/increase in value ( sigurdsson the obvious outlier this summer - bought to appease koeman maybe?)
Are we attempting moneyball, and just doing it badly? Are koeman and Walsh at odds with each other - three no 10s signed would suggest something has gone wrong with whatever we're trying to do - along with what we're seeing on the pitch
Are we attempting moneyball, and just doing it badly? Are koeman and Walsh at odds with each other - three no 10s signed would suggest something has gone wrong with whatever we're trying to do - along with what we're seeing on the pitch
I agree with this. If we had a moneyball approach it was Moyes who set up a very good statistical approach to signing players. Koeman's approach is anti-moneyball.
Worrying this, TT.
Have you actually read the book?!
Agree. His whole 'strategy' is based on buying experienced premier league players. There's no way that approach is going to give you a competitive edge over your rivals. His recruitment policy is a mess.
It looks like a combination of players Koeman wants and players Walsh wants. I'm sure there's some overlap, but I'd guess Walsh wants a smarter, slower build, while Koeman wants Champions League tomorrow.
I feel very strongly that one is the correct approach and the other is not, but I suppose that's open to debate.
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