Greek Financial Crisis

[Bruce Wayne]

The Greek people have hard choices to make. To remain in the Euro or to go on a different path. There is no shortage of money in the world and the Greeks could borrow from Russia and China, with far far less stringent measures attached.

That begs the question, why have they not already?

 

[hullefc]

That begs the question, why have they not already?

The Syriza government has struck up trade deals with Russia to supply a gas pipeline and deals with China to invest in ports, roads, rail and other infrastructure programmes. Syriza was criticised by Greek port officials and Unions for curtailing Chinese investment in ports.

They haven't asked for direct money, borrowing, because they are in the Euro and are prepared to abide by the rules of the ESM. Something it is questionable whether The Eurogroup are following.

 

[marty mcfly]

That begs the question, why have they not already?

Probably because those countries know they will never get their money back. Germany and the rest of the EU wouldn't be bailing them out if they weren't on the hook for all the billions in the first place.

 

[marty mcfly]

The Greeks would be mad to accept this latest German attempt to control their country. Merkel made it clear from the moment she said, 'the only currency is trust'.

That's rich coming from a person that has flouted the budgetary deficit rules of the EU on 5 occasions (because Germany 'needed' to, because 'cuts would be painful'), allows France to flout the rules (as long as it does as it is told) and allows other 'flexibility , Italy, when it wants something e.g Juncker elected.

The clear intention of Merkel since Syriza was elected was to 'crunch them' (Varoufakis) politically. As Varoufakis says, " blank refusal to engage in economic arguments. Point blank. … You put forward an argument that you’ve really worked on – to make sure it’s logically coherent – and you’re just faced with blank stares. It is as if you haven’t spoken". And these European finance ministers are supposed to be the economic 'brains of Europe'. They know the game 'German European economic wants is what rules Europe' and to get their way they will allow 'flexibility' and 'grants' to keep the others quiet and toe the line.

That is what the Euro was designed for. To allow Germany to sell its manufactured goods in Europe without the 'costly and inefficient' currency exchange. The Euro did away with countries devaluing to make their goods cheaper against others, in particular the way France would devalue the Franc to compete with German goods. Use the collective EU budget to increase grants to countries, to boost economic activity so their economies would grow and hey could afford German goods. A win win for Germany. With everyone in Europe paying for Germany industry to benefit. A major consideration of introducing the Euro was to help European industry, an in particular German industry, to compete with the Japanese and US in world markets.

The more that joined the Euro the merrier German industry and financial institutes became. Even if some countries joining like Greece should not have been allowed to. The 2008 crash brought a few chickens home to roost and Germany started to question why they should 'help' other countries. Many in Germany demanded that unless they toe the line don't give them money. “The crisis emerged over many years, through founding errors in the euro. For example, Greece should not have been admitted into the euro area,” she (Merkel) said in 2013. Staying inside the Euro will devastate Greece and will not lead to growth despite the 'promise' of 35 billion Euros for Small and Medium sized businesses.

The mantra was set after 2008. 'If you can't 'survive' in this new era then we will lend you money but we will be there, with German technocrats, German government bank, KfW 'the dumbest bank in the world', to look over your shoulder and make sure you carry through with 'austerity' measures. The Italians, Portugese, Irish and Spanish all agreed and allowed outside interference to tell them what to do. But Syriza was elected not to impose 'austerity' - 1930s slump policies - and no outside interference - KfW or IMF - in making Greek economic and social decisions.

From the moment the Greek people made the democratic choice and elected Syriza - backed by an overwhelming referendum majority - the knives were out to get rid of a troublesome movement. Either force them to leave the Euro - no longer Germany's problem or install unelected technocrats to impose 1930s slumps policies - a coup d'etat. "[But] Schäuble was consistent throughout. His view was “I’m not discussing the programme – this was accepted by the previous government and we can’t possibly allow an election to change anything. Because we have elections all the time, there are 19 of us, if every time there was an election and something changed, the contracts between us wouldn’t mean anything. So at that point I had to get up and say “Well perhaps we should simply not hold elections anymore for indebted countries”, and there was no answer. The only interpretation I can give [of their view] is “Yes, that would be a good idea, but it would be difficult to do. So you either sign on the dotted line or you are out.” A coup d'eat.

And even if the Greek parliament votes to accept these undemocratic demands there is no guarantee that they will get the 82 billion bail out anyway. After the vote it is a starting point 'to talks about the bail out money'. Tsipras has decided to force through parliament, measures that will split the country, lead to mass sackings with unemployment soaring and labour reforms that would be so draconian it would make Thatcher blush. And would never be allowed in any other European country. Demand will decrease in Greece that will lead to even further closures and unemployment going up, means less demand with further increases in unemployment and so on, just like the 1920s/1930s - Greece is already being viewed as in a worse sate than the US was in the 1930s. And just like the 1920s and 1930s when the UK insisted on keeping the gold standard to devastating effects to sections of the British economy. The Euro is acting in the same way to devastating effects to parts of Europe.

The Greek people have hard choices to make. To remain in the Euro or to go on a different path. There is no shortage of money in the world and the Greeks could borrow from Russia and China, with far far less stringent measures attached.

I agree with pretty much everything.

Even on the issue that the EU was designed to remove the competitive advantage southern countries had. The Troika also tried to remove Ireland's low tax rate as part of the bailout which without that Ireland would be Greece.

The only point I disagree with is the fact that Greece could borrow from anywhere. I don't think it's as simple as that but it doesn't matter it's better to leave now and start the process of rebuilding than be a colony of Germany and the northern neo-liberal countries.

 

[peteblue]

Yeah your attitude summed up there perfectly. Rule Britannia, etc. etc.

And your anti British (unless we're lending you money) sentiments summed up perfectly.......

 

[peteblue]

That begs the question, why have they not already?

I expect that nice German lady says no.......

 

[edge]

That begs the question, why have they not already?

it will be in the terms of joining the euro i imagine

 

[hullefc]

I agree with pretty much everything.

Even on the issue that the EU was designed to remove the competitive advantage southern countries had. The Troika also tried to remove Ireland's low tax rate as part of the bailout which without that Ireland would be Greece.

The only point I disagree with is the fact that Greece could borrow from anywhere. I don't think it's as simple as that but it doesn't matter it's better to leave now and start the process of rebuilding than be a colony of Germany and the northern neo-liberal countries.

Russia has offered to lend Greece money for infrastructure and energy projects. China is already involved in infrastructure projects.

Greece can issue new government bonds to sell to Russia and China in exchange for different projects.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Russia has offered to lend Greece money for infrastructure and energy projects. China is already involved in infrastructure projects.

Greece can issue new government bonds to sell to Russia and China in exchange for different projects.

So if Russia and China are funding 'stimulus' style projects, and the Troika are covering the debt, what's the problem here?

 

[hullefc]

So if Russia and China are funding 'stimulus' style projects, and the Troika are covering the debt, what's the problem here?

The Greeks didn't pay the IMF.

It didn't seem to bother the IMF though.

Edit. 2. Provided there is a timely and effective policy response, the near-term risks from uncertainty surrounding Greece appear manageable. The immediate risks of market contagion have been much reduced by the policy instruments available in the euro area, including QE, and the European firewalls. Beyond the near term, the risks surrounding Greece can be managed as long as there are concerted efforts to accelerate and deepen integration within the monetary union to make it more resilient.
2015 Article IV Consultation with the Euro Area Concluding Statement of IMF Mission
June 18, 2015

 

[davids]

Probably because those countries know they will never get their money back. Germany and the rest of the EU wouldn't be bailing them out if they weren't on the hook for all the billions in the first place.

If Germany (we all know they are the EU) had done their due diligence they would have been aware of the problems inherent in Greece for decades.They weren't aware of the haphazard tax collection? They weren't aware of the Greek pension system before the first bailout?If you make a loan with no expectation of repayment,it is in fact a gift,a bit like this (possible) latest bailout.

 

[Toffeelover]

If Germany (we all know they are the EU) had done their due diligence they would have been aware of the problems inherent in Greece for decades.They weren't aware of the haphazard tax collection? They weren't aware of the Greek pension system before the first bailout?If you make a loan with no expectation of repayment,it is in fact a gift,a bit like this (possible) latest bailout.

In fact I think they and the other creditors were, which is why their attitude in the current crisis has been questioned.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

If Germany (we all know they are the EU) had done their due diligence they would have been aware of the problems inherent in Greece for decades.They weren't aware of the haphazard tax collection? They weren't aware of the Greek pension system before the first bailout?If you make a loan with no expectation of repayment,it is in fact a gift,a bit like this (possible) latest bailout.

It's almost like they should only have lent them the money if the Greeks agreed to change their ways or something...

 

[hullefc]

The Euro zone group are thinking of breaking their own lending rules.

despite UK objections
Developments in Brussels...... Reuters is snapping that the Commission is going to ignore George Osborne’s concerns, and recommend tapping the EFSM to fund Greece’s bridge financing.

That would mean breaking the agreement that the EFSM should not be used for eurozone rescues.

Paul Mason

✔@paulmasonnews
As Greek parties agonise over Summit Deal, IMF debt sustainability update spells out: it cannot work without partial debt write-off

View image on Twitter

Even more debt write off than last week.

 

[peteblue]

So if Russia and China are funding 'stimulus' style projects, and the Troika are covering the debt, what's the problem here?

Even though it would love to do it just to wind the EU up, Russia doesn't have the money, it's GDP is less than that of the UK or Germany or France or even Italy, in fact it's only just above Canada, Australia and the EU's other basket case Spain. China likes to get it's money back at very high rates or it 'takes a piece of the action' and tends to invest in infrastructure to gain additional work for Chinese only companies using Chinese workforce. Neither would want to just tip money into a black hole.......