Thing is though, if England do manage to win their group, if they are unlucky they will come up against Austria or Netherlands in R16. They're currently not in a fit state to beat either of those teams so the draw opening up might be academic for them anyway
Oh, I agree. I don't think England will win the tournament - I have long since said they missed their chance at Wembley three years ago, sandwiched between two genuine opportunities at two World Cups - but I'm just pointing out that there is a lot of guff spoken about England right now and the vacillating between extremes - particularly by the English media - is tiresome. Before each tournament, they are world-beaters. As soon as they meet a competent side, they call for the manager's head. Wearisome stuff.
Nobody wins tournaments in the group stages. But you can lose them.
England will progress to what is, effectively, a new tournament in the knockouts. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them make the last four or even the final, with a favourable draw. If France, Germany, Spain, and Portugal - the four best sides, really - are on the opposite side of the draw, then England have a chance. Perhaps it's a chance they don't deserve or will not take advantage of, but it's a chance. I wouldn't write them off. And the media, having savaged them now, need to be held to account when facile wins against minnows such as Slovenia or Ukraine or whichever tiddler they meet in the last 16 leads to the usual outbreak of arrogant jingoism.
In other words, I hope lessons are learned by the evidence before our eyes after two matches. England aren't great, are most likely down the pecking order here, and need to start treating countries like Denmark, Croatia, and Uruguay with respect before setting their sights on the giants, but they are unbeaten and still top their group. All is still to play for - especially if the big boys end up on the opposite side of the draw. A feeble Italy and Ronald Koeman is as good a path as it gets to a final - well, unless you play most of your matches at Wembley and meet Ukraine and Denmark along the way...