Current Affairs EU In or Out

[tsubaki]

I've just been through it again and all I'm seeing is words like tentative,estimates,lack of data......the numbers I can see could suggest that immigration has been of no benefit overall and the differences between EEA and Non EEA do not refer or identify the size of population that the contributions relate to.......surely there must be something better than this....

I am not sure that this is the article that Bruce was using, but there is a briefing on the impact of immigration on the labour market here.

 

[peteblue]

Oh and in the full report it shows the net effect of migration into Germany up to 2009 as having a negative 1% on GDP........

 

[edge]

Does this show the affect on low wage earners in the UK or doesn't that matter as long as the economic figures look ok?

 

[peteblue]

From Bloomberg:

Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond said quitting Europe’s customs union would impose a “frictional cost” on exporters, signaling he is at odds with those government colleagues seeking an immediate withdrawal.

Being in the union allows the U.K. to trade freely with fellow members, yet prevents it from striking commercial deals of its own with outside countries. Trade chief Liam Fox is among those wanting to leave so he can line up the pacts the U.K. needs to prosper after Brexit. The Sun newspaper on Thursday cited a cabinet minister as saying either Hammond or Fox “will end up walking” out of government because they can’t agree.

“The truth is that after 40 years in the European Union we’ve got an economy that’s heavily integrated with economies of the European Union,” Hammond said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in New York. “There would be a frictional cost to not being involved in a customs union.”

Those costs would include more bureaucracy at borders with companies required to submit their shipments to security checks and to detail the origin of the products they’re exporting. There is also a concern that the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would need to be strengthened.

Prior to June’s referendum, the Treasury warned an hour of delay at customs would mean 5 percent less trade and estimated companies would have to fill in forms with more than 50 boxes. On the other hand, leaving would allow Fox to reach out to the likes of China and the U.S. to line up new relationships.

“We have to look at this in rational terms -- there are costs and there are benefits,” said Hammond, whose department is conducting a fresh study of the issue.

But this just helps to spell out why Germany and France will be desperate to do a sensible deal with the Uk........if we had a trade surplus with these countries I would be concerned, but we don't. Germany has a massive trade surplus with the UK, a surplus that can't just be flogged around the rest of the EU......they will push for a deal.....

 

[peteblue]

Does this show the affect on low wage earners in the UK or doesn't that matter as long as the economic figures look ok?

Completely ignored I'm afraid......

 

[The Esk]

But this just helps to spell out why Germany and France will be desperate to do a sensible deal with the Uk........if we had a trade surplus with these countries I would be concerned, but we don't. Germany has a massive trade surplus with the UK, a surplus that can't just be flogged around the rest of the EU......they will push for a deal.....

You are missing the point. Countries inside the union will find it easier to do business with each other than buying from the UK, thus our share of intra union trade falls.

The amount we export into the Union will fall from current levels. That is the inevitable consequence of leaving the Customs union.

We might or might not import the same amount of goods but that's not the issue. The issue is the amount we can continue to export and by how much it will fall from current levels because we leave the Customs union.

 

[tsubaki]

Oh and in the full report it shows the net effect of migration into Germany up to 2009 as having a negative 1% on GDP........

That is probably because the type of migration.

We have mostly taken young people without families and they have usually ended up taking jobs at the bottom end of our wage market; they don't take much in public services and the effect has been to reduce wages at the bottom, making business more competitive.

The Germans on the other hand took a lot of migrants (mainly genuine asylum seekers from the successive disasters in the Balkans) with families, who require more from public services and who have a lower percentage of persons who work (because of the number of dependents).

 

[peteblue]

You are missing the point. Countries inside the union will find it easier to do business with each other than buying from the UK, thus our share of intra union trade falls.

The amount we export into the Union will fall from current levels. That is the inevitable consequence of leaving the Customs union.

We might or might not import the same amount of goods but that's not the issue. The issue is the amount we can continue to export and by how much it will fall from current levels because we leave the Customs union.

Esk I understand your point, but you are completely missing the point I made. Germany has a massive trade surplus with the UK, these BMW's, Mercedes, Trains and machine parts cannot just be flogged to Greece or the East European countries at the same margins or volumes. Germany will either force the EU to do a sensible deal, as will France, or Germany will suffer far more than anything that may happen to the UK. The Germans will be faced with making up a potential shortfall in EU funding due to our exit, to lose their UK Market or suffer a reduction will have people on the streets.......a deal will be done......

 

[The Esk]

Esk I understand your point, but you are completely missing the point I made. Germany has a massive trade surplus with the UK, these BMW's, Mercedes, Trains and machine parts cannot just be flogged to Greece or the East European countries at the same margins or volumes. Germany will either force the EU to do a sensible deal, as will France, or Germany will suffer far more than anything that may happen to the UK. The Germans will be faced with making up a potential shortfall in EU funding due to our exit, to lose their UK Market or suffer a reduction will have people on the streets.......a deal will be done......

Let's say trade reduces by 10% (imports and exports) as a result of withdrawing from the customs union.

The UK would see a fall in exports of 4.5%, Germany a fall of 0.8% and France 0.7%.

Just remind me who suffers most as a result?

 

[tsubaki]

Let's say trade reduces by 10% (imports and exports) as a result of withdrawing from the customs union.

The UK would see a fall in exports of 4.5%, Germany a fall of 0.8% and France 0.7%.

Just remind me who suffers most as a result?

You are still missing the point, though. Yes, we would suffer more than the Germans and the French - but the point is that everyone would suffer to some extent, and since we are talking about lots of money (just the effect on France would be in the order of three and a half billion euro) the chances are that the trade deal that emerges actually will not be that much different from what we have now.

 

[The binman chronicles]

Esk I understand your point, but you are completely missing the point I made. Germany has a massive trade surplus with the UK, these BMW's, Mercedes, Trains and machine parts cannot just be flogged to Greece or the East European countries at the same margins or volumes. Germany will either force the EU to do a sensible deal, as will France, or Germany will suffer far more than anything that may happen to the UK. The Germans will be faced with making up a potential shortfall in EU funding due to our exit, to lose their UK Market or suffer a reduction will have people on the streets.......a deal will be done......

I don't think you can underestimate the fact that if we walk away with a deal that suits all, the national parties in France, Spain, Italy and Germany amongst others will suddenly jump on this fact and point to how it could be if those countries also left. By doing what benefits all could easily bring down the whole EU. We will be made an example of no doubt even if it happens to sting others a bit.

 

[peteblue]

Let's say trade reduces by 10% (imports and exports) as a result of withdrawing from the customs union.

The UK would see a fall in exports of 4.5%, Germany a fall of 0.8% and France 0.7%.

Just remind me who suffers most as a result?

Back to the percentages again I see.....

 

[peteblue]

I don't think you can underestimate the fact that if we walk away with a deal that suits all, the national parties in France, Spain, Italy and Germany amongst others will suddenly jump on this fact and point to how it could be if those countries also left. By doing what benefits all could easily bring down the whole EU. We will be made an example of no doubt even if it happens to sting others a bit.

But if it benefits all, then what is the rationale for the EU.......

 

[tsubaki]

I don't think you can underestimate the fact that if we walk away with a deal that suits all, the national parties in France, Spain, Italy and Germany amongst others will suddenly jump on this fact and point to how it could be if those countries also left. By doing what benefits all could easily bring down the whole EU. We will be made an example of no doubt even if it happens to sting others a bit.

Those national parties would make far more gains as the result of punitive measures taken against the UK than they would a fair and open deal that suits everyone.

I am not saying that the EU wouldn't try it - lets face it, their incompetence is why the le Pens of this world are enjoying such a renaissance right now - but it is surely obvious even to their leaders what would happen if they put thousands of jobs and tens of billions of euro in exports at risk like that.

 

[peteblue]

You are still missing the point, though. Yes, we would suffer more than the Germans and the French - but the point is that everyone would suffer to some extent, and since we are talking about lots of money (just the effect on France would be in the order of three and a half billion euro) the chances are that the trade deal that emerges actually will not be that much different from what we have now.

These charts sum it up.....

A deal will be done......