Don't forget the cost of the EU milartary army they annouced today - Once more Farage hate him or love him proved to be correct!
Current Affairs EU In or Out
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neil999
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member of the public just said to me (i work at local council)
'i wouldnt be getting evicted if i was polish, they get more than us...thats why we voted out, so we get to send them all back'
for polish replace with asians 20/30 years ago, then blacks 40/50 years ago, are these people racists or just finding an easy scapegoat??
'i wouldnt be getting evicted if i was polish, they get more than us...thats why we voted out, so we get to send them all back'
for polish replace with asians 20/30 years ago, then blacks 40/50 years ago, are these people racists or just finding an easy scapegoat??
Pienaar's gloves
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Did you call her a racist really loud?
Lots of agendas being championed on this thread. Simple answer is that no-one knows if the trade deficit with the EU will broaden or contract until negotiations on Brexit are complete and it happens.
Forecasts are forecasts, and forecasts from economists are generally influenced by their own agenda.
Fence sitter extraordinaire.
Forecasts are forecasts, and forecasts from economists are generally influenced by their own agenda.
Fence sitter extraordinaire.
If tariffs are introduced it would make car parts more expensive, as the UK imports between 30% and 50%, depending on which manufacturer, which would add to the cost of UK cars. A devaluation would partly offset this rise in cost but not completely and would have to be a continual policy. Which the Bank of England wouldn't agree to and neither would other EU countries, who would push for the Euro to be devalued against the pound. A currency/trade war would become very prominent between the EU and the UK.
A falling pound would make UK car parts sold to EU car manufacturers cheaper thus reducing their cost of manufacturing. As UK cars become more expensive to make, coupled with a EU tariff, would be the worst of all worlds for the UK motor industry. To compensate the pound would have to devalue by very much more than now against the Euro and wouldn't be tolerated by the EU.
Of course, UK manufacturers could enter the market and open new factories to make these parts that are imported, but that would take a big leap of faith.
A falling pound would make UK car parts sold to EU car manufacturers cheaper thus reducing their cost of manufacturing. As UK cars become more expensive to make, coupled with a EU tariff, would be the worst of all worlds for the UK motor industry. To compensate the pound would have to devalue by very much more than now against the Euro and wouldn't be tolerated by the EU.
Of course, UK manufacturers could enter the market and open new factories to make these parts that are imported, but that would take a big leap of faith.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
Its not any cost that would bother me but the Political Leadership.This could cause a bit of chaos. I was listening to that absurd Eu President claiming that Political Union had kept the peace in Europe, and completely ignored the fact that it was NATO that has ensured this. A European Army sounds really good for anyone who wants the trappings of a Superstate, to start throwing their weight around or pushing eastwards into ex USSR states and unfortunately that is what the Eu has already done with the Ukraine. NATO is already under threat due to Trump, establishing an EU Military will help kill it off and that is why the USA was so keen for us to remain within it......
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
Probably both......
joey_macmo
Player Valuation: £35m
You have an interesting definition of the term simple fact
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
And it's as good a place to sit as any, let's see what transpires with the negotiations.......
We have a trade deficit though Pete, so import more than we export. Therefore a devalued pound is bad for us.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
Not if it makes German cars etc more expensive. We then look to buy from UK manufacturers so reduce our import bill while also increasing exports.......
Pienaar's gloves
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Didn't the president state in his speech today that they would never want to turn Europe into a nation?
I seem to remember that he did.
I seem to remember that he did.
Hang on, I'm confused here. I thought Brexit was all about free trade, but you make it sound as though you would rather we be self-sufficient. Does free trade only benefit us when we sell rather than buy?
I refer to economist Henry Martyn, who said a few hundred years ago a few things about globalisation. He used the analogy of technological innovation to make his point, and suggested that by using a tool (a sawmill in his case), we could perform the work of 30 men with the labour of two men.
Now of course, we could employ those 30 men instead, but that would be a waste of human resources. The same is true for most technologies, and hopefully readers of this blog would agree that we shouldn’t go back on technological development.
Martyn went on to compare this with globalisation, and suggested that if another country can produce textiles (for instance) more efficiently than we can, then it is akin to having a new technology to do likewise, and we should jump at such an opportunity and instead deploy our resources to trade with that nation in areas that we can excel.
That is, assuming that we're going down this path as a peon to free trade rather than protectionism.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
It is all about free trade. You posed the question of a result of a devaluation and I gave an answer. Currencies go up and down all the time, the issue of free trade should always be a given........
But then if the Germans are better equipped to do something than we are, then we use our resources (human and financial) in ways where we are more suited. That's the basics of free trade. I'm not sure that's something that can be turned on and off like a tap.
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