Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Bruce Wayne]

Simplistic nonsense Pete.

As of our total current exports, 44% of it total goes to the EU. Tariffs would reduce our exports due to some of the goods becoming uncompetitive in that market. Therefore our output will fall, which lowers GDP and reduces the treasurys purse pro rata.

The argument that we import more than we export as a total therefore we gain and the EU loses, also ignores the fact that the EU is a collective. Germany for example only relies on the UK for circa 5% of it's exports, and so any net reduction in sales to these shores has a lesser impact on them, than us losing a chunk of our 44%.

Not having access to the single market would also decimate our financial sector, despite the mutterings of bumbling Boris that passporting will remain, this is far from a certainty if we don't agree full access to the single market.

The bluster over a tariff deal being an acceptable alternative is just that - bluster.

And it overlooks the huge importance of services to our economy, which aren't covered by the WTO at all. We currently have the financial passport scheme, and it's hard to argue that we wouldn't lose significantly were we to lose that.

 

[The Esk]

Not really. The Eu keep saying, free movement of people or no deal, so having it leaked that we would live with no deal is sensible. The Eu thinks that by putting up anti-Uk personnel to negotiate that they are being clever, but it will have the opposite effect, if the Eu cannot fairly negotiate a deal then Germany and France will push them out of the way. A sensible deal will be done or at worst no deal will be done. Either way the UK will gain financially.......

Hmm, 45% of our exports are to the EU, no European nation exports more than 9% of its exports to the UK, so the implementation of tariffs is bound to have a greater effect on the UK than elsewhere. The EU nations will substitute UK goods for other EU products where tariffs are applied. Meanwhile we will continue to import goods as we no longer have the capacity, ability, expertise to manufacture ourselves.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

And it overlooks the huge importance of services to our economy, which aren't covered by the WTO at all. We currently have the financial passport scheme, and it's hard to argue that we wouldn't lose significantly were we to lose that.

It could decimate the City as a global financial centre, and the EU would be gutted at that prospect honest....

All roads lead back to freedom of movement.....

 

[joey_macmo]

This is the point that the remainers always ignore. The Eu sells more to us than we do to them. If WTO tariffs are introduced we gain financially.........

Trying to claim tariffs would be good for us is quite a bold claim isn't it

 

[GrandOldTeam]

Keep it civil please.

Just saw this in the guardian.

It's sounding less and less likely I'll have to move back in to me mars box room.

View attachment 25726

A few months on, and I'm still not in my mars box room.

My small business has continued to grow, at a faster rate than ever really.

So, yeah. There.

*pulls up ladder*

 

[peteblue]

Simplistic nonsense Pete.

As of our total current exports, 44% of it total goes to the EU. Tariffs would reduce our exports due to some of the goods becoming uncompetitive in that market. Therefore our output will fall, which lowers GDP and reduces the treasurys purse pro rata.

The argument that we import more than we export as a total therefore we gain and the EU loses, also ignores the fact that the EU is a collective. Germany for example only relies on the UK for circa 5% of it's exports, and so any net reduction in sales to these shores has a lesser impact on them, than us losing a chunk of our 44%.

Not having access to the single market would also decimate our financial sector, despite the mutterings of bumbling Boris that passporting will remain, this is far from a certainty if we don't agree full access to the single market.

The bluster over a tariff deal being an acceptable alternative is just that - bluster.

You are using percentages to try to prove that we would be hurt proportionately more than any individual EU country. But that is not the issue........

 

[peteblue]

Hmm, 45% of our exports are to the EU, no European nation exports more than 9% of its exports to the UK, so the implementation of tariffs is bound to have a greater effect on the UK than elsewhere. The EU nations will substitute UK goods for other EU products where tariffs are applied. Meanwhile we will continue to import goods as we no longer have the capacity, ability, expertise to manufacture ourselves.

Again, you miss the bigger picture and wilfully refuse to accept that the EU sells us more than we sell to them. And if you wish to go country by country, then Germany has a massive problem because we are about their 2nd biggest Trade Surplus country after the USA. It is a simple fact that between the UK and EU if tariffs are applied then the UK would gain.......

 

[peteblue]

Trying to claim tariffs would be good for us is quite a bold claim isn't it

What I'm saying is that while it is much better to have free trade, as it reduces everyones costs, if the EU wish otherwise then they will pay more to trade with us than we will to trade with them........

 

[The Esk]

Again, you miss the bigger picture and wilfully refuse to accept that the EU sells us more than we sell to them. And if you wish to go country by country, then Germany has a massive problem because we are about their 2nd biggest Trade Surplus country after the USA. It is a simple fact that between the UK and EU if tariffs are applied then the UK would gain.......

Will the UK trade deficit be bigger or smaller when we leave the EU?

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

You are using percentages to try to prove that we would be hurt proportionately more than any individual EU country.

I'm not 'trying' Pete, I have done.

Your opinion that we'd end up with a net fiscal gain was also tackled but you swerved that.

 

[peteblue]

A few months on, and I'm still not in my mars box room.

My small business has continued to grow, at a faster rate than ever really.

So, yeah. There.

*pulls up ladder*

You're doing it all wrong then. You and your Mar should have had to move to Ireland, become EU citizens and prepare for WW3......the absolute tosh that the remainers came out with and continue to peddle is quite disgraceful......oh and once again the unemployment figures show that the UK is growing while the Eu contracts......

 

[peteblue]

Will the UK trade deficit be bigger or smaller when we leave the EU?

Depends. We may have a number of other markets lined up and it depends on how the Eu wish to play it. If they still wish for trade to continue between ourselves, and the Germans will still want to sell us cars etc etc, then nothing will effectively change. If they want to trade on WTO tariff rules, with the same goods being sold between us, then we gain slightly. There will be no black and White answer or solution because both the Eu and the UK would be shooting themselves in the foot if deals are not done. The Eu mob in Brussels may wish to 'punish' the UK but Germany, France etc will wish normal trade to continue....

 

[peteblue]

I'm not 'trying' Pete, I have done.

Your opinion that we'd end up with a net fiscal gain was also tackled but you swerved that.

Yes, I agree, proportionally, compared to the whole of the EU we would be affected more as a percentage. But compare the UK with the likes of Germany and they would be massively affected more.....just compare apples with apples. On an absolute basis, the numbers suggest that the EU would lose more money than we would....

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Yes, I agree, proportionally, compared to the whole of the EU we would be affected more as a percentage. But compare the UK with the likes of Germany and they would be massively affected more.....just compare apples with apples. On an absolute basis, the numbers suggest that the EU would lose more money than we would....

That's already the case though surely as the pound has been devalued after Brexit, thus making it harder for us to spend in Europe as it doesn't buy us as much.

 

[peteblue]

That's already the case though surely as the pound has been devalued after Brexit, thus making it harder for us to spend in Europe as it doesn't buy us as much.

The devaluation actually helps us to sell more but it depends on what contracts, prices and currencies are in place . It obviously affects an individual going to Europe and spending money, but also means that we think twice before going there, meanwhile Uk tourism is increasing. German goods, cars, trains, White goods etc, may get more expensive, which again then allows UK based companies to sell more, it's all swings and roundabouts. The BoE wanted the £ to be devalued and Brexit gave it what it wanted.