Current Affairs EU In or Out

[Kurt.]

Boris Johnson

Not born in the uk and has publicly admitted to illegal drug use. When is he getting deported ?

 

[Barnfred 55]

It's been said many times before Pete, but by virtue of the trade benefits that EU membership provides, the UK earns far more than it costs in membership. Heck, it's already been estimated that the costs to the economy of the last three years have been almost as much as the membership contributions of the last 47 years.

I'm sure you'll rubbish this, before subsequently arguing that trade deals are good, presumably because they boost trade, which boosts GDP and government coffers. It's already been widely accepted, even among leave circles, that whatever agreement we have with the EU in December won't be as good as we have now, so therefore there are costs to that. Your entire argument rests on the as yet pie in the sky trade deals with other countries somehow resulting in enough trade outside of Europe to compensate for the weaker trade with Europe.

How do you mean?

I wanted to find out if you fully understood the figures and what they represent, because I remember the article you are referring to. It is very misleading, not to mention extremely ambitious as regards what it believes we have missed out on in economic growth over the last 3 years due to uncertainty over Brexit.

The majority of people reading that article, and also reading your post, would assume that what the Government has lost in income from economic growth over the last 3 years is roughly the equivalent of what we have paid into the EU since we joined. Yes? Well actually No. What the article is saying is that the UK has lost out on economic growth of £130bn over the last 3 years. Even if these figures were remotely accurate, the UK governments annual income is roughly about 35% of GDP, so it's income from this "missing" economic growth would only be in the region of £45bn. Compare this to our total "net" contributions to the EU over the last 47 years of around £177bn. By my reckoning that's just over 25%.

Then you ask the question where do they get these figures for loss of growth from and how do they justify them. Just looking at the economic growth rates for 2018 and 2019, the UK grew by 1.3% and 1.4% respectively. During the same time period Germany grew by 1.3% and 0.6%, the USA 2.9% and 2.1%, and France 1.7% and 1.1%. Now if we assume we are missing out on around £45bn growth (£130bn divided by 3) per annum, that would actually increase our annual growth three fold. So our growth would actually be around 4%. It goes on to say that we will lose an estimated £70bn growth this year too which would have our growth rates pushing 6%. How can they justify these sort of figures when our peers are performing much the same as us, if not worse.

There is no doubt that our economy has been held back to a degree due to the uncertainty over Brexit, but the figures being quoted here are much more pie in the sky than the future trade deals you mention, most of which we haven't even begun to negotiate yet.

This is exactly what I refer to when I talk about scaremongering and "project fear".

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I wanted to find out if you fully understood the figures and what they represent, because I remember the article you are referring to. It is very misleading, not to mention extremely ambitious as regards what it believes we have missed out on in economic growth over the last 3 years due to uncertainty over Brexit.

The majority of people reading that article, and also reading your post, would assume that what the Government has lost in income from economic growth over the last 3 years is roughly the equivalent of what we have paid into the EU since we joined. Yes? Well actually No. What the article is saying is that the UK has lost out on economic growth of £130bn over the last 3 years. Even if these figures were remotely accurate, the UK governments annual income is roughly about 35% of GDP, so it's income from this "missing" economic growth would only be in the region of £45bn. Compare this to our total "net" contributions to the EU over the last 47 years of around £177bn. By my reckoning that's just over 25%.

Then you ask the question where do they get these figures for loss of growth from and how do they justify them. Just looking at the economic growth rates for 2018 and 2019, the UK grew by 1.3% and 1.4% respectively. During the same time period Germany grew by 1.3% and 0.6%, the USA 2.9% and 2.1%, and France 1.7% and 1.1%. Now if we assume we are missing out on around £45bn growth (£130bn divided by 3) per annum, that would actually increase our annual growth three fold. So our growth would actually be around 4%. It goes on to say that we will lose an estimated £70bn growth this year too which would have our growth rates pushing 6%. How can they justify these sort of figures when our peers are performing much the same as us, if not worse.

There is no doubt that our economy has been held back to a degree due to the uncertainty over Brexit, but the figures being quoted here are much more pie in the sky than the future trade deals you mention, most of which we haven't even begun to negotiate yet.

This is exactly what I refer to when I talk about scaremongering and "project fear".

A couple of points I'd like to make on this. Firstly, I fully accept that the analysis from Bloomberg takes some liberties, which is why I didn't state that the country has lost more than it has paid in. I merely used it to illustrate the point that EU membership is widely believed to bring numerous economic benefits to the UK, and most economists believe these benefits considerably outweigh the cost of membership.

Secondly, I wouldn't dream of regarding this purely as an issue of whether the government wins or loses from this. Frankly I couldn't care less about the jokers in government, and I suspect for many in those 'left behind' communities, their interest primarily lies with them and their community. Some people may find Erasmus hugely beneficial, but it won't show up in GDP. Some may regard free movement as wonderful, or participation in H2020. Some may have benefited from healthcare while in Europe, or enjoyed not having to worry about roaming costs.

In those terms, the government spend money on a great many things where they don't expect to see a financial return on them, and I would regard EU membership very much among them. The consensus is very much that the country benefits enormously from membership, and those benefits (spread across society) are considerably greater than the cost to the government of membership.

In terms of profit and loss though, perhaps it's worth remembering that as the average EU worker is believed to contribute £2,300 more in taxes than they consume in services, they're in the black to the tune of over £5 billion per year, or just over 25% of the membership contribution just on that alone.

 

[Methuselah]

I thought I wrote that clearly, yet clearly it was as incomprehensible as your typical post from Joey, as I didn't say a word about whether the UK would strike trade deals at all. You seem to be under the apprehension that once a trade deal is struck between two nations then the money starts rolling in straight away. That companies will instantly have customers. Their supply chains in that part of the world will automatically exist. Their knowledge of the local market will magically materialise. They'll overcome any non-tariff barriers that will undoubtedly still exist.

I mean if we strike a trade deal with the US you know Everton aren't going to start playing in the MLS, right?

Bruce, you chose to use the term 'Pie in the Sky'. I didn't say anything about my understanding of trade deals and where did I say that I thought the money would start rolling in straight away? Leaver's have always said that there will be problems and difficulties in the short-term. The problem with disenchanted remoaner's is that they desperately want Brexit to go pear shaped and this impacts on their views on the issue.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Bruce, you chose to use the term 'Pie in the Sky'. I didn't say anything about my understanding of trade deals and where did I say that I thought the money would start rolling in straight away? Leaver's have always said that there will be problems and difficulties in the short-term. The problem with disenchanted remoaner's is that they desperately want Brexit to go pear shaped and this impacts on their views on the issue.

I'm just making sure me and the family are okay. Not remotely bothered about the rest of the country.

 

[Jebus_lives]

Some beauties in that.

 

[JimmyJeffers]

Bruce, you chose to use the term 'Pie in the Sky'. I didn't say anything about my understanding of trade deals and where did I say that I thought the money would start rolling in straight away? Leaver's have always said that there will be problems and difficulties in the short-term. The problem with disenchanted remoaner's is that they desperately want Brexit to go pear shaped and this impacts on their views on the issue.

No they haven’t. This line is getting rolled out more and more. Imagine if things remain crap then people will be extending this to 5/10 years. Also, would like to see what problems and difficulties will be experienced by yourself if the economy tanks. It will be the poorest parts of society that will be left to take the blame again. The Conservative government of a long and illustrious history of doing this.
Trade deals again lollol Ffs

 

[Jebus_lives]

Some beauties in that.

Johnson: No Border Checks; Ready for No-Deal Brexit

www.msn.com

'no border checks'

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

No they haven’t. This line is getting rolled out more and more. Imagine if things remain crap then people will be extending this to 5/10 years. Also, would like to see what problems and difficulties will be experienced by yourself if the economy tanks. It will be the poorest parts of society that will be left to take the blame again. The Conservative government of a long and illustrious history of doing this.
Trade deals again lollol Ffs

2016 - Sunlit uplands, have our cake and eat it, there’ll not be a single job lost due to Brexit, we’ll get a great deal, there’ll be no downside to Brexit only upsides.

2020 - we never said it’d be better.

 

[bluejim95]

For me, I have exported goods all over the world and know first hand how difficult it can be. Dealing with the EU was as simple as dealing with a company a mile down the road. Outside of EU trade is a mine field.

Classification plays a massive part, hence why people hear of things like Jaffa Cafe being a cake or a biscuit. I mean who cares... the tax man at the border does. Not so bad if it stays the same, but countries can re-classify things at will, and do.

I dont think people realise the knock on. Paperwork means additional miles for deliveries, extra delays. Stock being held up for days or even being returned if a standard isn't met. It's not just the cost of paperwork, take milk products for example. To export goods containing milk, certain lab tests must be done to ascertain compliance. A Vet must even be hired to oversee loading of the goods, all at massive cost and inconvenience. It really can be a lot more than a piece of paper. It once took me 6 months to get one container into Kenya, all because the classification here didn't match.

I was lucky to change my career two years ago and I was very happy to avoid having to treat the EU the same as the rest. The simplicity is really taken for granted. I've had a truck stuck on the Russian border for 3 days because the invoice was .003 cent different due to the system rounding it on one document and not the other. It's really not a fun situation.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

Bruce, you chose to use the term 'Pie in the Sky'. I didn't say anything about my understanding of trade deals and where did I say that I thought the money would start rolling in straight away? Leaver's have always said that there will be problems and difficulties in the short-term. The problem with disenchanted remoaner's is that they desperately want Brexit to go pear shaped and this impacts on their views on the issue.

The idea that those who’ve been telling you for over 3 1/2 years that when reality finally crashes into the meaningless soundbites and rhetoric are somehow desperate to ‘see it fail’ is utter nonsense.

What’s happening is that all of the demonstrable facts and the realities of what Brexit actually is, are now becoming inescapable. So Leavers are trying to rewrite the narrative and suggest that you always knew it’d be a bit crap, but only in the short term.....and if only you Remainers believe a bit more it’ll all be great. Presumably that’ll morph slowly into, it could have been great and not this pointless, self inflicted economic sanction, if only you’d have stopped pointing out the realities and those pesky facts, and ‘got behind it’ more, so it’s all your fault.

 

[Foot Long Hot Dog]

For me, I have exported goods all over the world and know first hand how difficult it can be. Dealing with the EU was as simple as dealing with a company a mile down the road. Outside of EU trade is a mine field.

Classification plays a massive part, hence why people hear of things like Jaffa Cafe being a cake or a biscuit. I mean who cares... the tax man at the border does. Not so bad if it stays the same, but countries can re-classify things at will, and do.

I dont think people realise the knock on. Paperwork means additional miles for deliveries, extra delays. Stock being held up for days or even being returned if a standard isn't met. It's not just the cost of paperwork, take milk products for example. To export goods containing milk, certain lab tests must be done to ascertain compliance. A Vet must even be hired to oversee loading of the goods, all at massive cost and inconvenience. It really can be a lot more than a piece of paper. It once took me 6 months to get one container into Kenya, all because the classification here didn't match.

I was lucky to change my career two years ago and I was very happy to avoid having to treat the EU the same as the rest. The simplicity is really taken for granted. I've had a truck stuck on the Russian border for 3 days because the invoice was .003 cent different due to the system rounding it on one document and not the other. It's really not a fun situation.

Yeah but Frank from the Dog & Duck once ordered a battery from China, and it was a piece of piss. So that trumps your professional expertise I’m afraid mate.

 

[bluejim95]

Yeah but Frank from the Dog & Duck once ordered a battery from China, and it was a piece of piss. So that trumps your professional expertise I’m afraid mate.

Hahaha, yeah it really isn't always complicated. Never exported to China though, but Singapore was as easy as Switzerland for me.

Of course the other side was about determining the country of origin. A product here might contain raw materials from all over Europe and have short shelf life. A day at the border can write off the ones that did make it.

The origin is important to the buying country as they might have different standards of tests.

The financial side is fun as well. How the money is passed changes depending on the Inco Terms. Sometimes 3rd parties need to hold the cash whilst the goods are transferred. Never did that myself but had to learn it for the role.

Anyone that works in that area I'm 100% sure are dreading it, I was glad to not be involved.

 

[JimmyJeffers]

For me, I have exported goods all over the world and know first hand how difficult it can be. Dealing with the EU was as simple as dealing with a company a mile down the road. Outside of EU trade is a mine field.

Classification plays a massive part, hence why people hear of things like Jaffa Cafe being a cake or a biscuit. I mean who cares... the tax man at the border does. Not so bad if it stays the same, but countries can re-classify things at will, and do.

I dont think people realise the knock on. Paperwork means additional miles for deliveries, extra delays. Stock being held up for days or even being returned if a standard isn't met. It's not just the cost of paperwork, take milk products for example. To export goods containing milk, certain lab tests must be done to ascertain compliance. A Vet must even be hired to oversee loading of the goods, all at massive cost and inconvenience. It really can be a lot more than a piece of paper. It once took me 6 months to get one container into Kenya, all because the classification here didn't match.

I was lucky to change my career two years ago and I was very happy to avoid having to treat the EU the same as the rest. The simplicity is really taken for granted. I've had a truck stuck on the Russian border for 3 days because the invoice was .003 cent different due to the system rounding it on one document and not the other. It's really not a fun situation.

Uh oh. Someone’s posting who knows what they’re talking about

 

[bluejim95]

Uh oh. Someone’s posting who knows what they’re talking about

I worked in export for about 4 years I think. I wouldn't confess to be an expert, we're talking about every industry, every product... some will be stupid easy, classification code hasn't changed in 50 years... others might change whilst they are in transit.

Take Australia, they wont accept goods on non treated pallets to protect their wildlife. If they aren't, they dont go in. So there's a whole process to even get them ready.

Paperwork could take 3 days to come through and if wrong, another 3 days. Dont think you can just change the goods if they get broken, or simply mark the delivery down by hand... it's all documented.

I have heard of people flying Vets to Australia due to issues with the paperwork. South Africa, Singapore, easy.

Now America, I had to produce a book of paperwork for each container. Considerably more than anywhere else. Chile was ok... so many, all different.

I would dread outside of EU work. The Kenya container insole about... I had my boss begging me to take him off the mailing list as we hit 500 mails easy.

EU work was simply load and send. My volume was 85% EU I think, mostly the big ones, NL FR DE ES PT IT.