Current Affairs EU In or Out

[davek]

Think he loses by ~20

Fingers crossed.

 

[TyphooToffee]

It's a permanent border now rather than an insurance policy against a border. How is it better?

I didn't say it was, I merely asked the question.

 

[orly]

Fingers crossed.

Not having Kuenssberg's numbers this morning tbh, and I say this as someone who thinks the vitriol her way is overblown.

 

[edge]

Fingers crossed.

Think he will lose unless the DUP do a dramatic u turn very unlikely, but does he really want to win?
He gets beat sets the election up as him against parliament, even if the Brexit party do well they are only doing a deal will him not any of the rest who are remain parties no matter how labour want to dress it up.
The Brexit party will do just as much if not more damage in labour as to Tory seats.

 

[tsubaki]

I haven't had time to read the details of this deal, so I will reserve judgement. It has been interesting to see a lot of hardline no deal Brexit supporters doing an about-face, now demanding that MPs vote for this deal (except for Nigel Farage, whose party will probably sink if Johnson takes Britain out of the EU with an acceptable deal).

The main sentiment I am seeing right now is “bored of Brexit, pass the deal”. It is looking like a more popular compromise than May's Withdrawal Agreement, perhaps partly because all of the naysayers have spent the last six months insisting that Boris would not be able to re-open negotiations. He surprised me too. Don't get me wrong, he is still a charlatan.

I won't make any predictions about the outcome of the vote. Quite a few Labour MPs and anti-Johnson Tories have stated they will vote for the deal, so it has a better chance than the WA indeed. Funny times.

This is not having a go at you, but there are an awful lot of people out there who haven't read it but think this is a more popular compromise than May's WA - which when you think is a pretty bizarre state of affairs that can only really have come from a load of people going around telling them how popular this deal is.

Take an hour to read what is actually in it; if you still think its a compromise then I'll be amazed.

 

[davek]

Not having Kuenssberg's numbers this morning tbh, and I say this as someone who thinks the vitriol her way is overblown.

She's saying now 'Yes' by 8.

The Tories sound like they;'re bricking it this doesn't get done today. They should be too.

 

[sbbefc]

I thought that, but if Hammond opposes a few others will.

Doesn't look like he will.

 

[davek]

Think he will lose unless the DUP do a dramatic u turn very unlikely, but does he really want to win?
He gets beat sets the election up as him against parliament, even if the Brexit party do well they are only doing a deal will him not any of the rest who are remain parties no matter how labour want to dress it up.
The Brexit party will do just as much if not more damage in labour as to Tory seats.

TBH, in a scenario where this deal is passed, I can see the LP quietly relieved that they go to the election with the LibDem threat neutralised at one end, and the Tory/Brexit Party threat neutralised pretty much at the other end.

 

[orly]

TBH, in a scenario where this deal is passed, I can see the LP quietly relieved that they go to the election with the LibDem threat neutralised at one end, and the Tory/Brexit Party threat neutralised pretty much at the other end.

Not a point I'd considered that. Very true.

 

[ToffeeTim]

This Letwin amendment is a bit ridiculous.

Is it any wonder people have no faith in politicians when they go out of their way to avoid making a decision.

People are fed up with this rubbish.

 

[tsubaki]

She's saying now 'Yes' by 8.

The Tories sound like they;'re bricking it this doesn't get done today. They should be too.

Indeed, and the more time MPs (and the rest of us) have to find out what this deal actually contains will only ever drive more people to oppose it.

 

[orly]

Think he will lose unless the DUP do a dramatic u turn very unlikely, but does he really want to win?
He gets beat sets the election up as him against parliament, even if the Brexit party do well they are only doing a deal will him not any of the rest who are remain parties no matter how labour want to dress it up.
The Brexit party will do just as much if not more damage in labour as to Tory seats.

I think he does.

If he wins - he has "delivered Brexit". Brexit Party then rely on people hating the deal, but their core vote won't be interested in that level of detail.

He loses - he'll have lost 6-7 parliamentary votes, failed to deliver Brexit, still given the Lib Dems a sniff at running on a Remain pitch (which will hurt in several seats), and his own party will smell blood, because one or two of the hard Brexit zealots (like Patel) will say to Farage et al. "Let's get Boris out and run on a joint ticket".

He's in deep water if he loses today.

 

[davek]

Indeed, and the more time MPs (and the rest of us) have to find out what this deal actually contains will only ever drive more people to oppose it.

That's why we had 2 days between EU summit agreement and this 'debate' today.

Letwin has boxed clever on his reason for his amendment, but basically he knows it's a hard brexit and wants it stopped.

 

[tsubaki]

That's why we had 2 days between EU summit agreement and this 'debate' today.

Letwin has boxed clever on his reason for his amendment, but basically he knows it's a hard brexit and wants it stopped.

TBF it is a hard Brexit only on the surface - it basically either contains or would lead to everything like paying £1 billion a month to the EU, a surrender to the EU, putting us under ECJ jurisdiction after we leave, locking a part of the UK into the customs union and so on that the Tories have criticised Corbyn for wanting (with the possible exception of antisemitism, though that will probably form part of the free trade deal the way things are going).

 

[tsubaki]

This is one of the most disengenous statements I can ever remember being made in the Commons.